How Goes The Lawfare Strategy?

As I noted on Wednesday, although NeverTrumpers like Andrew McCarthy claim that the Democrats' lawfare strategy has succeeded in making Trump the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination, statements by Biden supporters have consistently taken the position that the indictments and trials were timed to coincide with key campaign events that would tend to favor his opponents, especially Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. By that reasoning, at least as might have been foreseen in the middle of last year, the Letitia James civil trial in New York would have dampened Trump's prospects in the Iowa caucuses and early primaries, while starting the January 6 trial in Washington on March 4, the day before Super Tuesday, would also have favored other Republican candidates.

Instead, it looks like there won't be much of a Republican primary contest at all. On Wednesday, following the Iowa caucus results, Sen Cruz, who ran against Trump in the 2016 primaries, announced “this race is over” before he stated he is “proud to endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States.” Philip Bump writes in the Washinton Post, "A lot of people are invested in presenting the 2024 Republican primary contest as competitive. It isn’t. It hasn’t been."

He goes on to say that media outlets have an incentive to cover the race as competitive, because it brings in clicks, but

No other Republican has landed a blow on Trump, particularly since he galvanized his support at the beginning of last year. This is one reason that Haley and DeSantis so often go after each other; there’s actual ground to be gained. The other reason is that neither candidate wants to irritate Trump’s base of support, just in case Trump gets hit by a meteor or something. The result is that there is a heated battle to win the Pro Bowl while Trump wins the Super Bowl by forfeit.

All of this, the preceding 1,000 words or so in this article, is talking generally about an obvious point. Barring that meteor strike, there’s no realistic outcome to the nomination other than Trump appearing on the November ballot.

In fact, it seems likely that neither the DeSantis nor the Haley campaigns will last even to March 4. DeSantis appears to have stopped all ad buys as of yeterday:

After losing to former President Donald Trump in the Iowa Republican caucuses Monday, coming in a distant second, DeSantis does not have any ads running in New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada, according to ad tracking services.

Not only has his campaign apparently gone silent, but the various super PACs supporting his 2024 bid have also vanished from television in the early nominating states.

Meanwhile, Haley has a new potential problem as the UK Daily Mail has revived old allegations of adultery on her part. Newsweek, an anti-Trump outlet, is trying to put the issue in the best light:

Unproven rumors from more than a decade ago of GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley having multiple affairs have given supporters of former President Donald Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement fuel for a new attack.

. . . The rumors were never proven and no significant new information has emerged about the old accusations, but that hasn't stopped Trump supporters from spreading them again. Their attacks come as Haley has risen in the polls, with many analysts speculating she could defeat Trump in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

. . . The affair allegations gained more traction among Trump's base after the Daily Mail picked up the story on Friday, with Ryan Fournier, the co-founder of Students for Trump, and conservative X account @Proud Elephant referencing the Mail's article on social media.

Whether Haley is rising in the New Hampshire polls, as Newsweek claims, is questionable. According to NBC News,

Three high-quality New Hampshire polls have now been conducted after the Iowa caucuses — and they tell a consistent story about the battle in the state’s GOP presidential primary.

It’s not just that all three of them — two tracking polls via the Boston Globe/NBC-10/Suffolk, as well as another poll from St. Anselm College — have former President Donald Trump leading former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by double digits, or that they all have Trump at 50% or higher.

If the goal of the Democrat lawfare campaign is to give Trump the nomination, why would anti-Trump, pro-Democrat Newsweek try to minimize his chances against Haley in New Hampshire and suggest she might beat him there? The fact is that there's no shortage of Democrats who are worried about Trump's potential performance in November, such as David Axelrod, who likely is speaking on behalf of Barack Obama.

The fact is that the January 6 trial, expected to start the day before the Super Tuesday primaries, looks like it will be overtaken by events, with the Republican nomination decided before that date, even leaving aside the increasing likelihood that it will be delayed past then. The Letitia James and E Jean Carroll trials in New York have had no discernible effect on Trump's primary performance, while if anything, the Fani Willis debacle in Atlanta will vindicate Trump and boost his popularity as well.

Lawfare so far has proven an utter debacle.