Dr Fauci Misrepresents

Yesterday on Sunday talk, Dr Fauci said US COVID-19 cases were rising again "because of infectious coronavirus variants, people traveling more, and states easing restrictions too soon."

More than 11 states have eased restrictions, despite the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warning that "now is not the time."

As far as I can tell, an uptick in US cases is due almost entirely to New York. Here's the New York chart:

But here's California:

New York's population is 18 million. California's population is 40 million. California's COVID statistics, with LA County a key factor, have actually been plummeting in recent weeks, as I noted here yesterday. But according to the New York Post,

New York and New Jersey now have the highest rates of COVID-19 infection in the country.

The Empire State has averaged 548 cases for every 100,000 residents over the past 14 days — only surpassed by the Garden State with 647 cases.

Despite vaccination efforts, New York has not seen a dramatic reduction in infections. Daily cases have averaged about 50,000 people per week since mid-February.

And across the Hudson River in New Jersey, the number of new infections has climbed by 37 percent in a little more than a month, to about 23,600 every seven days.

In addition to California's population of 40 million, Texas has a population of 29 million, while Florida's populaiton is 21 million. None of these states has seen the plateau-cum-uptick pattern in recent weeks that we're seeing in New York. But the absolute number of cases in New York weighs against the sharply declining numbers elsewhere to create a misleading "national" total, as we see below:

Looking at the charts yesterday, I saw two basic patterns: a "Mount Everest" pattern, or at lesst a "Mount Washington" pattern, common in most US states with a sharp peak and then a decline to last spring's levels. Then there's a "Canadian" pattern, which we also see in New York-New Jersey, with a peak, a partial decline to a plateau, and then an uptick.

I certainly can't offer an explanation, except to say that the Canadian provinces and the few US states with this pattern are in fact among those with the strictest lockdown and travel quarantine orders in place. Although California's business restrictions are among the strictest, its travel quarantine is less so and basically not enforced. New York is in fact lifting its travel quarantine as of April 1. On Friday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford loosened COVID restrictions there as well.

My guess is that allowing healthy people to circulate and travel boosts immunity. But what I think doesn't matter. What the CDC and others need to do is look at the actual data in individual cases and determine what's working and what isn't. Instead, they're pushing a one-size-fits-all continued national lockdown agenda. Even Doug Ford is starting to see that's not working.