Ukraine and Just War Doctrine
Germany and the US will put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia by scaling back weapons deliveries in what would be a major blow to Kyiv’s hopes of victory, German media reported on Friday.
Bild, a German tabloid, reported what it described as a “secret” German-American plan to force Ukraine’s hand on opening peace talks, citing sources in the German government.
Under the plan, Washington and Berlin would supply Ukraine with sufficient weapons and armour to hold the current front line, but not enough to retake occupied territory.
. . . “Zelensky should realise that it can’t go on like this,” a German government source told Bild, referring to Ukraine’s stalled counter-offensive against Russian in the east. “He needs to, of his own free will, turn to face his nation and explain that there is a need to negotiate.”
German government sources also told Bild that the White House shared Germany’s view on the need to shift the focus from weapons deliveries to negotiations.
Larry Johnson touches on the intelligence and policy errors that led the West to overextend in Ukraine in a post yesterday at The Gateway Pundit, mentioning "the 'flawed and often facile historical analogies' that produced the delusional analysis and predictions pumped out by a raft of 'military experts' during the last 20 months".I agree; I can't avoid thinking I was badly misled throughout much of 2022 by the near-unanimous retired general talking heads on US and UK media who were confidently predicting a Russian collapse following a renewed Ukrainian counteroffensive. Neither took place in 2023, but nobody is so far holding anyone to account. Johnson continues,
Russian leaders, not just Putin, viewed the West’s efforts to bring Ukraine into NATO as an existential threat. Putin made that point quite clear to the West starting in 2008. Not only did the United States and the United Kingdom ignore those warnings, they upped the ante by helping fund and organize the Maidan coup in February 2014 and backed the new Ukrainian leaders as they attacked the Donbas.
. . . The United States is like an aging boxer who decided to fight a rejuvenated contender in a 15 round Heavyweight match, but only trained to last two rounds. That is why Russia is battering the hell out of Ukraine and, by proxy, the United States.
This piece quotes Seymour Hersh extensively, who made the remarks before October 7:
Biden, with the support of Secretary Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan — but diminishing support elsewhere in America — has turned his unrelenting financial and moral support for the Ukraine war into a do-or-die issue for his re-election.
The American intelligence official I spoke with spent the early years of his career working against Soviet aggression and spying has respect for Putin’s intellect but contempt for his decision to go to war with Ukraine and to initiate the death and destruction that war brings. But, as he told me, “The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going. The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House,” Seymour Hersh concludes.
But this article refers to the changed circumstances since then, quoting Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends, a Rome-based geopolitical affairs think tank:
“The substantial fact is that the conflict has become objectively prolonged and there is no end in sight, also due to the poor initiatives of the major leaders of the West.”
“European politicians and [President] Biden cannot present themselves to voters with a war, or rather two, if we also consider the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is difficult to present oneself to one’s potential voters with two open crises and, above all, without the prospect of certain victory,” Graziani said.
It was never a secret that Zelensky had only up to the end of this year to win the war, and he clearly hasn't done it, with the new added factor that the Israeli-Palestinian situation is bleeding attention and resources from Ukraine. The new circumstances simply compound the general miscalculation over Ukraine's prospects. This brings me to Roman Catholic just war doctrine as outlined in CCC 2309:- damage inflicted by the aggressor on the nation or community of nations must be lasting, grave, and certain;
- all other means of putting an end to it must have been shown to be impractical or ineffective;
- there must be serious prospects of success;
- the use of arms must not produce evils and disorders graver than the evil to be eliminated. The power of modern means of destruction weighs very heavily in evaluating this condition.
These are the traditional elements enumerated in what is called the "just war" doctrine.
What we're beginning to see is that for whatever reason, US and Western policymakers seriously underestimated Russia's capability to continue the war in spite of serious early setbacks. These only served to confirm policymakers and other influencers in their initial view, which discounted any factors warning that there simply were not serious prospects for long-term success. But this circumstance reflects back on the question of whether all other prospects for putting an end to the crisis of early 2022 had been shown to be impractical or ineffective, especially if the end state imposed by the US and NATO looks like it will be little different from a negotiated solution imposed before Russia invaded.One reason this question is being so little discussed is that, as Signor Graziani points out, a retreat from his signature Ukraine policy would be yet another factor lessening Biden's chances in next year's election.
