The Return Of Colonel Reisner

Somehow I've always had a soft spot for Austria, in some measure due to its consistent history since the death of Prince Metternich of getting things about as wrong as they could be gotten, but in a charming, lost-cause sort of way. An example of what I like about Austria is Federal Army Col Markus Reisner's YouTube commentaries on the Russo-Ukraine War, which originally struck me as impressive, but of which I've been skeptical since his more recent ones. He's actually been silent since early July; for comparison, that presentation is below.

This was a generally pessimistic assessment for the Ukrainian side -- the only favorable factor he saw for Ukraine was that it had kept control of Kyiv, while he foresaw increasing Russian efforts to close one or more cauldrons in Donbas, relying especially on closing a pincer from Popasna north and Izyum south. He saw attrition as a key factor, and he especially saw attrition as a factor that would minimize the effects of the heavy weapons like HIMARS that only then were being introduced.

What appears to have developed instead was an attritional advantage for Ukraine. After the Russian advance into Lysychansk in early July, which Col Reisner stressed as a key event, there was little movement on that front, although there were continuing small-scale Russian attacks that in effect ground down Russian forces with little to show for the losses.

Instead, throughout July, Ukraine began to stress its putative buildup for a counterattack in Kherson presumably to begin in August, with attention focused on HIMARS attacks on key bridges over the Dnieper. Ukraine was completely successful in deflecting attention from its actual buildup in Kharkiv, the outcome of which currently bids to be an offensive comparable to the Falaise Pocket in 1944. Col Reisner's mention of the comparison is grudging indeed.

On the other hand, he doesn't mention at all the circumstance that the rout of the Russian strongpoint at Izyum completely eliminates any current likelihood of Russia closing a cauldron between there and Popasna, that he predicted as of early July.

At the end of his latest YouTube, he explains that he hasn't been making as many presentations because he's been put in command of the Honor Guard in Vienna. According to Wikipedia,

The Gardebataillon ("Guard Battalion") is a ceremonial unit in the Austrian Armed Forces. The Gardebataillon is one of the most important military units in the Austrian Armed Forces as its main task is to represent Austria at home and abroad. It is stationed exclusively at Maria Theresien Barracks in Vienna.

I see. The ceremonial battalion is one of the most important in the Austrian armed forces, and Col Reisner is now in full-time command. He certainly looks the part. I guess this is why I have a soft spot for Austria.

It's just as well he isn't advising President Zelensky.