The Race Hasn't Changed

I've pointed out recently that, up to Kamala's replacing Joe on the ticket, the polls had been unchanged since last fall, with Trump's lead in the Real Clear Politics aggregate national vote fluctuating from about 0.5 point to 3 points, depending on the most recent poll they ran through their model. Trump's felony conviction in New York, for example, changed nothing. Joe's very public brain freezes in June changed nothing. His loss in the June 27 debate, the clearest and most indisputable loss in any presidential debate, ever, changed nothing.

The assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 changed nothing. All of a sudden, the emergence of Kamala as the new Democrat turned everything upside down, or at least this is the story. I've been deeply suspicious of the unchanging polls all year, especially when the consensus simply acknowledges that the poll aggregtes underestimated Trump's vote totals in both 2016 and 2020, but for some reason, nobody seems to want to explain this or do anything to make things more accurate.

But in any case, as of this morning, the Fox News poll, which is consistently anti-Trump, has the race precisely where it was before Kamala changed everything:

No matter how many major events intervene, and goodness knows there have been several, the state of this year’s presidential race doesn’t seem to change.

Vice President Kamala Harris trails former President Donald Trump by one percentage point in the latest Fox News national survey, 49-50%.

Last month, she was also behind Trump by one point, 48-49% -- as was President Joe Biden, with the same 48-49% result.

Between those two surveys, there was an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention was held, Ohio Sen. JD Vance was chosen as Trump’s running mate, Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, she was certified as the Democratic presidential nominee and selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, and they held several campaign events with record-breaking attendance.

Fox News is one of the prestigious polls RCP includes in its aggregates. For whatever reason, other polls in that group haven't been issuing recent results, but a few polls have been similar over the past week or so. For instance, the UK Daily Mail:

The latest Daily Mail survey shows Trump still edging out Harris nationally by two percentage points, garnering 43 percent support to Harris’s 41 percent support. However, that two-point gap is outside the ± 3.1 percent margin of error, setting up what the Daily Mail describes as a “nail-biter of an election in November.”

The outlet cites another survey, as well, which shows respondents largely viewing Trump as the more “strong” and “charismatic” candidate.

As of today, Rasmussen Repoerts continues to find that Trump has rebounded:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a two-way matchup, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 45% would vote for Harris. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided. These findings are just slightly changed from a week ago, when Trump led by five points, with 49% to Harris’s 44%.

Rasmussen Reports suggests as well that pollsters, including those that make up the RCP aggregates, have been oddly reluctant to do as many polls since the beginning of August:

On @RCPolitics
# of state polls in the first 13 days of August - 28
# of state polls in the last 13 days of July - 73

Weird.

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 15, 2024

What this suggets to me is that legacy media has been mildly interested in stirring up interest by claiming the race has changed, but since these are the dog days of summer, nobody's working especially hard at it, and I don't think anybody, at least among the elites, seriously thinks Kamala has a chance. This, I'm pretty sure, is why Josh Shapiro came as close as he could to claiming he didn't actually want to be Kamala's running mate, because he didn't.

If he was as ambitious as Fettermsn claims, why wouldn't he want the job? After all, Fetterman's implication was that vice president would be a step up for him, or he wouldn't want it. I think the answer is that he's going to run for president in 2028, and he knows Kamala is going to lose in November.

For that matter, why did Kellyanne Conway register as a foreign agent for Ukraine? I think that one's fairly simple, too. Zelensky is assuming Trump will win in November, and he wants someone on his side who has Trump's ear. Remember that Trump's most recent characterization of Zelensky is "maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived". Zelensky is playing his cards in anticipation of Trump winning and looking for the best deal he can get.

I would be on the lookout for other such signals in coming weeks. The smart money -- which, I fear, isn't Nate Silver -- knows nothing's changed.