Newsom Sounding Nervous

California Gov Newsom's tone has shifted lately as he confronts the upcoming recall election on September 14. In March, he was assertive and combative, characterizing the recall as a fringe effort:

"I am not going to take this recall attempt lying down," he declared.

"And let's call it what it is: it's a partisan, Republican recall — backed by the [Republican National Committee], anti-mask and anti-vax extremists, and pro-Trump forces who want to overturn the last election and have opposed much of what we have done to fight the pandemic," Newsom wrote.

But last Thursday, he was sounding alarm bells.

Newsom predicted that nationwide, Democrats would see “consequences” from his recall effort for “many, many years,” and it might help Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections. During the interview with the editorial boards of the McClatchy Newspapers, Newsom also noted that he does not think the Democrats are considering the consequences of him possibly losing.

“I don’t think the national Democratic Party’s asking themselves that question,” Newsom told them. “If this was a successful recall, I think it would have profound consequences nationwide and go to not just politics, but to policy and policymaking.”

Clearly he's dropped the line that it's just a bunch of QAnon types and anti-vaxxers running the effort. Larry Elder's candicacy, which he announced only on July 12 but had his name added to the ballot after winning a court case July 21, clearly changed the nature of the race:

When Elder announced his candidacy, he immediately became one of the most recognized Republicans in the race, given his years on talk radio as well as appearances on Fox News and other media.

"One of the most recognized Republicans"? Leaving Caitlyn aside (she's quickly faded anyhow), Elder is the only recognized Republican.

I listened to a YouTube session wih lawyer-pundit Robert Barnes and pollster Richard Baris just before Elder's confirmation as a candidate, where they concluded that the California recall was iffy at best, with the Republican candidates uninspiring up to that point. They felt the race needed someone with a Hollywood or Kennedy style appeal and shook their heads at the unlikelihood of this happening. (Oddly, they seem to have forgotten that we got a Hollywood Kennedy in Arnold Schwarzenegger, who singlehandedly destroyed the California Republican party. As a radio commentator said at the time, he'd collapse any time a bunch of fat nurses demonstrated for something at the state capitol.)

Beyond the entry of Elder, the link above also concludes,

[T]he field is “shaping up as one that will excite every kind of Republican,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego. "There's someone for every part of the party.”

The question in the election is twofold. The first is whether to recall Newsom at all, which needs a majority. The difficulty for Newsom is that the Republicans are energized, while Democrats are less so. This conventionial wisdom is outlined in the news segment linked at the top of this post. Other issues include the fact that Newsom is untrustworthy on masks and lockdowns; the commentator on the news segment notes that he's been quiet on this issue due to the recall, but voters tired of restrictions will prefer someone who will act more like Govs DeSantis and Abbott in opposing local restrictions and won't impose new ones statewide.

The second question on the ballot will be to select a replacement from among 40-odd candidates. At this point, Elder is the clear front runner, with the conventional RINO Kevin Faulconer running second but well behind Elder. Without Elder in the race, the overall choice on the ballot would have been between a San Francisco leftist and a Mitt Romney, which is a proven formula to keep Republicans at home. Elder is a whole new factor.

We'll have to see what develops, but clearly Newsom is more pessimistic now than he was several months ago.