Los Angeles County News

As of this week, LA County has qualified to leave the California "red" tier of COVID restrictions, and as of Monday, April 5, it will be placed in the less restrictive "orange" tier. From the time Gov Newsom imposed the multi-colored COVID tiers last August 28, LA County had been in the most restrictive "purple" tier. Its performance during the late 2020 surge had been a virtual Mt Everest on the chart, as shown above. But for reasons that aren't completely clear, the county's numbers began a precipitous drop in mid-January 2021 and, contravening trends in places like Germany, Canada, and the US northeast, have continued to plummet.

The county left the "purple" tier, where it had been for over seven months, just on March 14, when it was placed in the "red" tier. However, it has blown through the "red" tier in the minimum time it was required to wait there, three weeks, and yesterday the state declared that it qualifies for the "orange" tier. The "red" tier allowed most indoor functions like restaurants and churches to operate at 25% capacity with masks and social distancing. The "orange" tier extends this to 50%, again with masks and social distancing.

However, these restrictions continue to be among the most severe in the US. In New York, outside New York City, restaurants may operate at 75% capacity; inside the city, 35%. But in New York, these restrictions are producing nothing like California's, or LA County's results, as shown at right. Instead of riding a snowboard down the slopes of Mt Everest, like California, New York seems to be climbing a new Mont Blanc. And New York has vaccinated 15% of its population, while California has vaccinated about 20%. It's difficult to reconcile the very different outcomes from the data we have.

A working theory I have is that California began to develop conditions of herd immunity at some point just prior to the introduction of vaccines, and the vaccines simply accelerated the improvement -- but of course, I'm an English major, not an epidemiologist. And this simply doesn't explain New York's performance even with the vaccine.

Even more puzzling is an LA county health department press release from yesterday:

In a study released yesterday of about 4,000 health-care personnel, police, firefighters and other essential workers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the vaccines reduced the risk of infection, both asymptomatic and symptomatic infection by 80% after one dose, and that protection increased to 90% following the second dose. Different from the clinical trials, which are tightly controlled, and showed that the vaccines are highly effective preventing hospitalizations and deaths, this study shows just how effective the vaccines are in preventing infections in real-life conditions. The findings of this study are significant and provide evidence that the vaccines can both reduce transmission and save lives.

Looking at California's results alone, I'd simply say hooray. But if so many people are also being vaccinated in New York and the rest of the northeast, why are their results not consistent?

And beyond that, why have states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona either explicitly or de facto relaxed all restrictions and with, at best, a vaccination rate equivalent to New York, achieved so much better results?

I think the data basically suggests that California could easily relax restrictions much mote quickly than it's doing now, but at least the restrictions, still among the most restrictive in the US, are being relaxed. And so far, the weepy appeals of Dr Walensky. and the woozy appeals of Joe Biden, for states to pause their loosening, haven't had an effect. Pray this continues.