Somebody Agrees With Me On Gavin Newsom

Joe Biden recently reignited speculation on what's up with Gavin Newsom's not-a-campaign for president next year:

President Biden late Wednesday quipped that California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) could have any job he wants, including potentially being president, a tongue-in-cheek reference to the governor’s much-discussed White House ambitions.

. . . “Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for,” Biden added, eliciting laughter in the room.

The California governor has widely been considered as a possible presidential contender, and some see him as a potential candidate come 2028. Newsom has repeatedly fended off speculation he could challenge Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024.

Biden, who will turn 81 this month, has faced persistent questions about whether he is too old to run for a second term. Polls have consistently shown large percentages of Democrats would prefer a different nominee in 2024.

Last month I went out on a limb and predicted this:

I suspect Pelosi and other insiders are fuily aware that Joe has multiple skeletons in multiple closets, and they're in the process of hedging against a set of scandals that will force Joe's withdrawal from the race late in next year's primary season, leaving a limited field with no potential Democrat replacement having a clear primary campaign record. This will open the opportunity for Newsom to become the consensus last-minute white guy who isn't either Bernie Sanders or Pete Buttigieg.

He would keep Kamala as vice president.

This theory refines the scenario slightly:

The attacks on Biden from the Democrat Establishment coincide with the ascent of Gavin Newsom.

How could the DNC avoid a messy primary and nominate their preferred candidate (Newsom)?

It’s in the fine print.

Biden is increasingly frail and confused, his dementia is worsening and his economic plan is faltering.

His popularity continues to crumble even among Democrats.

Consider the possibility that he resigns after receiving the Presidential nomination at the DNC 2024 convention.

Why that specific timing?

Because –

Rules adopted by the Democratic National Committee in 2022 leave the DNC as the sole authority to appoint a Presidential nominee where that nominee resigns after the August 2024 convention.

No vote or primary needed.

Although the piece refers to "Rules adopted by the Democratic National Committee in 2022" and quotes them, it's without a link. Here's the text the piece claims to quote:

In the event of death, resignation or disability of a nominee of the Party for President or Vice President after the adjournment of the National Convention, the National Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies.

The only other place I can find this text is at this site from 2020, which refers to it as the Democratic Party’s Rule F, but the link is broken. On one hand, the rule may or may not be current, but on the other, I'm not sure if we can rely on the Democrats to follow whatever rule is in place in any case.

I do agree with the subtext of the piece, which is that the Democrats don't trust the primary process -- just look at the so-far unsuccessful effort by the Biden handlers to replace the New Hampshire primary with South Carolina as the first in the 2024 cycle. At the same time, Newsom so far is pushing the same buttons as Biden, a continuation of preferential treatment for favored minorities (he established a California commission on reparations), same old-same-old on homelessness, crime, and immigration, preferential treatment for LGBTQ+, full abortion rights, and so forth).

An unfettered primary process might or might not nominate Newsom, but it wouldn't work at all as long as Joe is still in office. Thus there would need to be a swap imposed by the party insiders either very late in the primary season or after the convention.

Right now, the polls showing Trump, or even Nikki Haley, beating Biden are starting not to look like outliers, and other factors may figure in, including the collapse of Joe's Ukraine policy, further revelations of paymnents to the Biden family, a collapse of the Get Trump lawfare strategy via the appeals process, or a collapse of the January 6 narrative with the release of the Capitol security tapes. This leaves aside some utterly game-changing gaffe or a serious health event by Joe himself.

Democrat insiders have got to be gaming the contingencies, and Newsom looks like the most predictable replacement, especially with the supprt of Nancy Pelosi and maybe now Joe himself.