Newsom's Dilemma

California Gov Newsom is the second nationally prominent Democrat governor in danger of removal from office. His current predicament is an illustration of how the political environment is shifting. Last spring, the movement to recall Newsom looked like a long shot, although the signatures on the recall petition far exceeded the required minimum. The mid-July entry of Larry Elder, best known as a second-string Salem Radio talk show host with no electoral experience, immediately transformed the race.

A July 23 poll, taken shortly after Elder won a court case to put him on the ballot, had 43% of likely voters in favor of recall. An August 3 poll put the number at 46%. By August 5, the number in favor of removal had risen to 51%, with only 40% in favor of retaining Newsom. Elder's entry into the race clearly focused public interest.

But an August 4 debate among four Republican recall candidates, sponsored by behind-the-curve Salem Radio and moderated by NeverTrump Salem host Hugh Hewitt, included neither Elder nor the target of the recall, Newsom. Assemblymember Kevin Kiley of Sacramento suburb Rocklin, 2018 gubernatorial candidate John Cox, NeverTrump former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, and former Sacramento-area U.S. Rep. Doug Ose were present. Faulconer and Cox had briefly led polls in late July, but they quickly faded with Elder's entry. '

However, a new poll that concluded the same day as the debate showed that none of those conventional Republican candidates is now a serious contender.

The poll came from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune, and was conducted among 1,100 Californians from Aug. 2 to Aug. 4. It found that 51% of respondents were in favor of recalling Newsom, while only 40% wanted to keep him in power.

. . . The new poll's other shocking finding is a new leader on question two ("Which candidate should replace Newsom if he loses question one"): YouTuber Kevin Paffrath, the most high-profile Democrat on the bottom of the ballot.

. . . Paffrath received 27% support, with conservative radio host Larry Elder, who led three separate polls released in recent weeks, at 23% support. The only other candidate with double-digit support was businessman John Cox (10%).

Paffrath definitely comes out of left field. Wikipedia describes him as "an American YouTuber, landlord, and real estate broker". He is a 29-year-old self-promoter whose YouTube channel up to the current election had focused largely on flipping houses and the real estate market. Faulconer, the only professional politician in the field, who'd led early polls, was no longer anywhere near the top. In addition,

As in the [August 3] Emerson College poll, a majority of Latinos said they would vote to recall Newsom; in the new poll, a majority of whites said they would do so as well.

The poll also asked vaccinated voters about their preference, and a majority favored recalling Newsom, 47% to 43%.

Once I heard of Paffrath, I went to his YouTube channel Meet Kevin and his campaign site stopthebullship.com to get a sense of his political views. He definitely isn't running on the current Democrat brand. His issues include Crime and Community Policing, Enforcing our Laws, Traffic, No Lockdowns, and Ending High Taxes. These are middle and working class issues, clearly opposed to the alliance of wealthy elites and the Lumpenproletariat that dominates the Democrat establishment, which Newsom represents.

I don't know if Paffrath is some kind of outlier result in the most recent poll, but he represents the same range of views that supports Elder, and which the current electorate clearly doesn't trust members of the Republican establishment to support. If the recall election were held today, it's likely that either Elder or Paffrath would replace Newsom. This does make me more than a little nervous; the first people who walk into the new governor's office in such a case could well try to bully or panic him into imposing new lockdowns, for instance. I would have somewhat more confidence in Elder with such an outcome in view.

Newsom, meanwhile, has had little to say over the past several weeks. Yesterday, in a Zoom call with campaign volunteers,

Newsom hit out at Elder, calling him a major Trump supporter — a rallying cry in a state won overwhelmingly by President Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Newsom also accused Elder of being a threat to abortion rights established under the landmark Roe vs. Wade U.S. Supreme Court decision in 1973.

The problem is that if he's talking only to campaign volunteers, he's preaching to the choir and not to the majority of Californians who now want him out. And at this point, he's running in the 2020 election, not in 2021, where the major issues are things like crime and lockdowns, not Donald Trump. And unlike 2020, where the issue was in fact Trump, the 2021 recall is about Newsom. If he attacks Elder -- indeed, even if he gets the LA Times to issue a hit piece tying Elder to a kiddie porn ring or something -- the electorate has over 40 other choices to replace Newsom. It's not either-or; it's we're sick of one, and we'll try others.

And as Newsom himself has put it, this is a national election. Salem Radio isn't the only one who's behind the curve.