People Are Getting Nervous

There are two aspects to the current crisis. The first, which strikes me as unreaistic, is just about what the Democrats should do with Joe as the nominee, when no course of action is very good -- his potential replacements would likely lose bigger than Joe if he stays on the ticket. The second, which is what actually has people nervous, is that Joe is commander in chief, but he's generally acknowledged not to be available for the proverbial 3 AM phone call:

• The time of day is important as to which of the two Bidens will appear.
• From 10am to 4pm, Biden is dependably engaged — and many of his public events in front of cameras are held within those hours.
• Outside of that time range or while traveling abroad, Biden is more likely to have verbal miscues and become fatigued, aides told Axios.

And that's apparently from insiders putting the best possible face on things. Again according to Axios, which has had the most insightful current reporting from the White House,

Joe Biden's close aides have carefully shielded him from people inside and outside the White House since the beginning of his presidency.

. . . The intermittent access has resulted in many current and former White House aides being shocked at the 81-year-old president's limitations at the debate Thursday night.

. . . Current and former White House aides are feeling whiplash — and now questioning whether Biden could fulfill a second term.

The issue isn't the short-term problem of whether Joe had a bad night and whether he can recover, the issue is what is his real condition, and is he fit not just to run for another term, but should he be in his position now at all?

Yesterday I linked to a report from NBC News that Joe was going to meet with his family to discusss the future of his campaign. Reports as of this morning are that the family insisted he continue, and indeed, some knowledgeable people insisted it wasn't really a meeting:

Camp David: Biden family spent morning not having a summit but in hair and makeup for a shoot with Annie Leibovitz, Vogue photog who shot Biden/Obama/Clinton in March then suggested doing something informal with the Bidens. Family suggested this week, bc Hunter & family in town.

— Katie Rogers (@katierogers) June 30, 2024

If this is correct -- and it certrainly has the ring of truth -- Joe's family is remarkably shallow, self-absorbed, and utterly without situational awareness. But even given the reports that the family is behind Joe, Axios suggests this may not be final:

We're told Democratic congressional leaders are one outside force that could bring pressure on Biden.

. . . "This is no longer about Joe Biden's family or his emotions," said an adviser in constant touch with the West Wing. "This is about our country. It's an utter f***ing disaster that has to be addressed."

It'll take a while for the oligarchy to process the stakes, this adviser argued, "but there will be a reckoning."

. . . "They need to tell him the absolute truth about where he is," said a well-known Democrat who often talks to the president. "Loyalty doesn't mean blind loyalty."

"Candidates for House, Senate, governor, state legislature are going to be in survival mode," the well-known Democrat added. "They're not going to go down with the ship. And the ship is in a bad place."

Democrat Congressman Jamie Raskin suggested something like this is under way:

Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD) said Sunday on “Velshi” that discussions are taking place about President Joe Biden’s future as the party’s presidential nominee.

Raskin said, “This is what a real political party looks like and this is what a real politcal p[arty does. Obviously, there was a big problem with Joe Biden’s debate performance, and there is also just a tremendous reservoir of love for Joe Biden in our party. So this makes it a difficult situation for everybody, but there are very honest and serious and rigorous conversations happening at every level of our party, because it is a political party and we have differences in point of view.”

Reports from inside the Camp David photo shoot or family meeting, whatever it was, suggest the family isn't entirely in touch with reality:

Members of Joe Biden’s family privately trashed his top campaign advisers at Camp David this weekend, blaming them for the president’s flop in Thursday’s debate and urging Biden to fire or demote people in his political high command.

There is no immediate expectation that Biden will follow through on that advice, according to three people briefed on the family conversations but not directly involved. The three people were granted anonymity to discuss the matter.

. . . The blame was cast widely on staffers, including: Anita Dunn, the senior adviser who frequently has the president’s ear; her husband, Bob Bauer, the president’s attorney who played Trump in rehearsals at Camp David; and Ron Klain, the former chief of staff who ran point on the debate prep and previous cycles’ sessions.

Dunn and Bauer are former close Obama advisers, although Klain is a longtime Biden retainer. Although the White House is distancing itself from those reports, most of the senior people running the Biden 2024 campaign are former Obama staffers, some of whom are reported to have been put on the Biden re-election campaign at Obama's urging. The family's complaints likely reflect a growing rift between the Bidens and the Obamas, reflected as well in this morning's tweet from Tucker Carlson:

From an unusually good source: Obama’s tweet supporting Joe Biden was disingenuous. In private, Obama is telling people Biden can’t win, and he is therefore in favor of an open convention. Obama will not say whom he supports, nor as of yesterday afternoon had he met personally…

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) July 1, 2024

This suggests that the messages of support from Obama and Bill Clinton on Friday were less than wholehearted:

Both of the former Democrat presidents took a long time to speak up for their guy, Joe Biden, after the debate. While the major freak-out played out at its most intense, they were quiet.

Bill Clinton waited until early evening to post on social media.

. . . Obama's reaction was the important one, though. Many elected officials were waiting to take guidance from Obama. Obama and Clinton hesitated to get into the fray but when they did, they offered Biden a lifeline. The two former presidents knew Biden was too stubborn and egocentric to realize that it was time to leave the race.

Axios has a lengthy piece on the Biden family's strategy that concludes,

Biden's kitchen cabinet sees a recipe for a narrow victory that includes a grand-slam speech at the Democratic convention in Chicago + a strong showing in the next second debate + positive economic news in the fall (maybe a Fed rate cut).

. . . Biden's camp believes voters will give more weight to Biden's judgment and record than to his grandpa gait or fading debate dexterity. It's one of the greatest gambles in the history of politics. Once again, Biden's team is telling Democratic voters: You just have to believe.

The problem is that so far, nothing in the Biden re-election strategy has worked -- in fact, just about everything has backfired, from the lawfare strategy, to the promised comeback after the State of the Union, to what I believe was a plan to look presidential on the world stage in early June, followed by a strong debate performance in Atlanta. They aren't going to sell any strong speech at the convention or a strong performance at the next debate. Those promises aren't going to convince anyone.

The problem is immediate. The failures in the June trips and then the debate show a deeply flawed presidential judgment that goes beyond just Joe's chances for re-election. People are nervous about more than just that.