Wednesday, December 28, 2022

The Wall Stret Journal Wonders If Musk Has Lost The Bubble

Just to establish some context, I'm posting a YouTube copy of the famous TikTok video in which a new Twitter employee led us through her typical day. As it happened, this was only weeks before Musk's late October takeover, following which in a very short time he reduced the workforce from about 10,000 to about 2,500. In the process, he transformed that same headquarters environment from what was shown in the video to what a visitor said "looks like a five-star hotel that's been abandoned".

If I were teaching in business school, I would use this as an example of Stein's Law, that which cannot continue must stop. If people are giving Elon Musk credit for it, that's a mistake. All Musk did was relieve Jack Dorsey and the former board of blame for what someone was going to have to do very soon no matter who was in charge.

In fact, as some commentators have pointed out, it's almost as though Twitter's advertisers and investors felt some sort of obligation to maintain Twitter in the style it had become accustomed, when there was less and less justification for doing this. Musk allowed himself to become the scapegoat for the inevitable, something he didn't need to do.

I've already noted that Tesla shareholders are starting to wonder if Musk is still minding that store. Now, according to Breitbart, The Wall Street Journal is asking a bigger question:

The Wall Street Journal reports that Elon Musk is facing financial pressure as Tesla stocks continue a downward trajectory and his $44 billion investment in Twitter has yet to pay off. The WSJ states that Musk’s ability to use his Tesla shares to raise money by selling or borrowing against them is being complicated by their rapid loss in value in recent months.

The WSJ notes that Musk has largely been a cash-poor billionaire for most of his career, depending upon margin loans — borrowing backed by his Tesla shares — for personal expenses and business investments while retaining his shares. But as Tesla’s market value has fallen by approximately $700 billion this year, Musk’s personal wealth has declined.

Tesla shares have fallen by around 65 percent in 2022 and Tesla investors have grown concerned by Musk’s focus on Twitter following his takeover of the company in October.

I can't disagree, although Warren Buffett said long ago, around the time he said he wouldn't invest in bitcoin, that he also wouldn't buy shares in Tesla. I doubut if he'd even waste his time commenting on Twitter. And Musk, rather than, say, recruiting someone who can actually salvage Twitter, is instead basking in his role as cultural hero: Well and good, but Musk is neither a Buckley nor a Limbaugh. He's been thought to be a corporate innovator, and if that's in fact his calling, he should go back and focus on it. But even if he doesn't, we'll get along just fine. Our current problem is that Tucker Carlson is another one who's neither a Buckley nor a Limbaugh, and that's a much bigger loss.