Joe Is The Last Credible White Democrat

One phenomenon I've noticed over the past several years is that the Democrat Party, in its post-Reconstruction form the refuge of white segregationism in both north and south, has simply been abandoning that position, turning out the lights, leaving the keys in the locks, announcing that the cis whites have left, and whoever else is welcome to come in. The last generation of credible white party leadership, represesnted by figures like Dianne Feinstein, Nancy Pelosi, and Joe Biden, all cut deals for non-white support for their final candicacies with the understanding that they'd retire when those terms were over and would effectively nominate, or tolerate the nomination of, black successors.

Thus Dianne Feinstein earlier this year announced that she would not run for reelection in 2024, and as her health declined, Gov Newsom, himself term-limited for reelection as governor, announced he would nominate a black woman to complete her term.

Nancy Pelosi, running for Speaker of the House after the 2020 election, referred to a promise she had previously made that that term would be her last.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday reaffirmed a pledge she made to House Democrats two years ago that she would give up the gavel after the 117th Congress.

Ahead of the 116th Congress, Pelosi cut a deal with a handful of members threatening to vote against her for speaker on the floor. To win their support, the California Democrat agreed to allow the caucus to vote on proposed term limits for the top three Democratic leaders and to abide by the proposal herself regardless of whether it was adopted.

The term limit plan, which would have limited the top three leaders from serving beyond the 117th Congress, was not brought before the caucus as scheduled, amid a partial government shutdown. The members pushing for the proposal agreed to drop it indefinitely but noted they could always bring it up again if needed.

In the event, she kept her promise and retired as speaker before the current Congress but continues to hold her seat in the House. In June 2020, Joe Biden publicily yielded to pressure to nominate a black woman as his running mate. However, Biden had already agreed in 2020 to nominate a black woman to the Suprme Court in response to pressure from South Carolina Rep Clyburn, who then rejuvenated Joe's primary campaign byh endorsing him in that state's election.

In all these cases, white Democrat figureheads facing retirement, term limits, or actuarial inevitability conceded to the likelihood of black successors. As I've been pointing out, this has been a result of the long-term disintegration of the New Deal coalition, which having lost strong elements of labor, Catholics, Latins, amd the middle class, needs to hold on to factions like queers, greens, socialists, and blacks to keep anything like an electoral majority.

Part of this realignment is apparently the need to drop the idea of a cheerful middle-aged cis white guy to preside over the coalition. Not every Democrat is on board with this:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly on the verge of launching an independent bid for president, which could change the dynamics of the race significantly, but now Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who has repeatedly floated a primary challenge against Joe Biden, is raising speculation that he may now actually be launching his own presidential campaign.

Axios reports that Phillips will be “stepping down from his role in House Democratic leadership” citing his opinions about the 2024 presidential contest.

“My convictions relative to the 2024 presidential race are incongruent with the majority of my caucus, and I felt it appropriate to step aside from elected leadership,” Phillips told Axios in a statement. He was co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee. “I celebrate Leader Jeffries for his remarkable and principled leadership, and extend gratitude to my outstanding friends and colleagues for having created space and place for my perspectives,” Phillips continued. “I’ll continue to abide by my convictions, place people over politics, and support our shared mission to deliver security, opportunity, and prosperity for all Americans. Onward!”

Like most Americans, Phillips is keenly aware that Biden’s advanced age and diminished cognitive health is a problem and hasn’t been shy about pointing to polls showing that even among their own party, there are substantial concerns about him being their party’s nominee. Though he has never discounted the possibility of launching his own bid, he has also said that he is not “well-positioned” for a national campaign and has urged Democrats with a stronger national profile to consider entering the race against Biden. Still, he’s so concerned about Biden’s viability that some clearly believe his resignation is a sign he’s on the verge of running.

The problem for Phillips, or anyone trying to get a moderate cis white Democrat to run, is that these are people already hanging on in swing districts trying to keep their heads down. National prominence will hurt them, not help them. There will likely also be an increasing insistence that the old-fashioned cheerful cis white unifier not be a Democrat candidate at all. This suggests to me that we're headed for a major relignment, something that at least the current cohort of aging cis white Democrats facing the ends of their careers have at least been forced to recognize before many others.