What Does Nancy Pelosi Know?

Over the past week, Gavin Newsom has been on a trip to Israel and China:

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) joked about his presidential ambitions following a wartime trip to Israel, explaining the limits of his visit.

“I wish I was president of the United States,” he told reporters when asked about meeting with Israeli leaders, particularly to discuss a potential ceasefire with Hamas. He added afterward that he was joking. “I could start doing all those things."

According to Newsom, the brief and impromptu trip to Israel was “limited in scope.”

. . . Newsom is the second governor to travel to Israel amid the war with Iran-backed terrorist group Hamas, following Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). New York has the largest population of Jewish people in America, as well as the largest population outside of Israel itself. California has the second-largest population in the U.S.

The California governor has answered as to whether he supports a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, something growing in popularity among the most progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Newsom, though, has reiterated that he "stands with Israel."

His joking remark about being president comes as speculation continues over a potential 2024 presidential bid. Newsom has consistently rejected the notion that he is considering a primary challenge to President Joe Biden, even serving as one of the most high-profile surrogates for his reelection campaign.

Moving on to China on Monday, by Wednesday, Newsom had a surprise high-profile meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The topics of his visit were carefully spun to limit them to issues like California-Chinese cooperation in climate change, but the Chinese were also eager to portray Newsom as a refreshing new figure:

A new editorial published Monday by the Global Times, a nationalistic English-language tabloid published by the propaganda department of the ruling Communist Party, states that Newsom is one of the most esteemed U.S. officials to make the journey overseas—citing the governor's first trip there as one of pragmatism as the U.S.-China relationship overall has been one of angst and vitriol in recent years.

"To be honest, Chinese people currently lack faith in Washington as a whole and have distrust toward some U.S. politicians. However, the welcome for Governor Newsom's visit is sincere and warm, as 'it is always a pleasure to greet a friend from afar,'" the editorial states.

I have two reactions. First, Newsom, 56, terms out as California governor in January 2027, when he'll be only 60. He's got to be looking toward a political future, especially one outside California, where the Democrat legislative supermajority has put the state on a disastrous course. That has got to involve running for president. Second, Nancy Pelosi, nominally "emerita" as House speaker, still runs things behind the scenes there and in California. Newsom will make no move without Pelosi's specific approval.

Newsom is also scheduled to debate Florida Gov DeSantis on Fox November 30. There's no question that Newsom is angling to become the only white Democrat (which is to say the only credible Democrat) in line behind Joe, definitely for 2028, but as a contingency for next year as well.

My guess is that Pelosi, although she's moving very carefully, is aware that Biden has vulnerabilities that make a 2024 run more iffy than has been generally portrayed. I suspect that she and a close circle of insiders are aware of the same thing I've suspected here, that Joe's various gaffes, microaggressions, stumbles, mumbles, and other infelicities are symptoms not of senility but long-term alcohol abuse.

I ran into a strange confirmation of this rereading Tom Hines's biography of Raymond Chandler, a well-known Hollywood drunk who had a period of sobriety in the 1930s and early 1940s until roughly the time Billy Wilder hired him to clean up James M Cain's Double Indemnity for the screen. Chandler at this point fell visibly off the wagon while vigorously insisting he was still sober -- and Hines cites sources who knew Chandler as well as typical alcoholic dodges to say that this was nothing unusual -- drunks lie to themselves and everyone else that they're sober, and indeed, like Joe Biden, that they've never had a drink, ever.

I suspect Pelosi and other insiders are fuily aware that Joe has multiple skeletons in multiple closets, and they're in the process of hedging against a set of scandals that will force Joe's withdrawal from the race late in next year's primary season, leaving a limited field with no potential Democrat replacement having a clear primary campaign record. This will open the opportunity for Newsom to become the consensus last-minute white guy who isn't either Bernie Sanders or Pete Buttigieg.

He would keep Kamala as vice president.