How Is The Putative Ukraine Crisis Not A Boondoggle?

Boondoggle has multiple meanings, but this one from the Urban Dictionary actually seems applicable to the current moment: there's some sort of diplomatic party going on in Munich, to which President Biden has dispatched Vice President Harris, who as far as anyone can tell is incapable of doing anything but relaxing/fun stuff other than work. Yesterday she made the following remarks at the Westin Grand Munich to illustrate that:

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Well, this was an important trip to be here at the Munich Security Conference — in particular this year, as I said yesterday.

We are looking at a moment that is a very decisive moment on one of the bases for the Munich Security Conference and certainly one of the founding reasons for NATO, which is European security and the connection and alliance between Europe and the United States.

This was a productive trip, in terms of the extensive bilateral meetings that we had that were in furtherance of the ongoing collaboration and partnership with our Allies.

It was important in that, as you all know, this is a moment that is very dynamic. If not every hour, certainly every day, there seem to be new moments of interest and also of intelligence.

Why just yesterday afternoon, the defense minister made a most illuminating Power Point presentation! Seriously, against what we're being told is a background of tanks almost rolling into Kyiv, this is the relative urgency with which our officials are actually treating the situation. New moments of interest indeed. Over the weekend I ran into this gaseous think piece in The Atlantic, Putin Has Made America Great Again:

The story of the Ukraine crisis so far has been about many things: blackmail; realpolitik; appeasement; even, apparently, Western provocation regardless of the facts. But, here in Europe, the one thing it very much has not been about is American decline. In fact, from here, the story of this latest crisis is of the reestablishment of America the Good, America the Bold, America the Supreme—and, by extension, Europe the Weak.

, , , While America itself continues to struggle with its own sense of decline, its dominions in Europe are choosing to suspend their disbelief in the imperium all over again. After years of grumbling about American power, it took only the whiff of a threat from Moscow for Europe to recommit to the old order, thrusting the battered old fasces of imperial authority back into the hands of the emperor in Washington.

Why, they all got together in breakout sessions at the Westin Grand Munich to celebrate that very development! But hundreds of words farther down, we get to the real point:

In his inaugural address, Biden’s message to the world was that America had been tested, but had come back stronger as a result. The country would, he said, “lead not merely by the example of our power but by the power of our example.” America, he was saying, was ready to resume its role as leader of the free world, a “trusted partner for peace, progress, and security.”

Rereading these lines today, in light of the Ukraine crisis, you can conclude that he has partly made good on his promise, despite the debacle in Afghanistan. He has shepherded the West into a unified position on Ukraine through careful and conciliatory diplomacy. Yet Russia’s challenge to the West today, as it amasses its troops on Ukraine’s borders, is predicated on its belief that American power is retreating, and with it the power of its example. Europe’s response, however, has been to reveal how powerful America remains.

Sleepy Joe? I don't see it. President Brandon at long last elected not to spend the holiday weekend in Delaware, instead waiting anxiously in the White House for Kamala Harris's latest tidbits of interest and intelligence, or so it would seem. The puzzling thing is that the US appears to be trying to inflame the situation:

The Washington Post obtained a copy of a letter sent from U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Bathsheba Nell Crocker to Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights. The letter warned that the U.S. has “credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the report, calling it “absolute fiction” and saying during a call with reporters: “Do you realize that this is an absolute canard, a lie? It is absolute fiction. There is no such list. It’s a fake.”

Crocker, however, wrote in her letter that the U.S. is convinced Russia would “likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.”

The letter also warns that Russia would commit “human rights violations and abuses” and would use extreme force against protesters.

The inclusion of the US political buzzword "LGBTQI+" suggests this is entirely for US domestic consumption. If they're so concerned about human rights abuses, why not complain about Trudeau, Ottawa, and the Mounties, who actually did commit abuses over the weekend, rather than Russia, who just might in the future? But Ambasador Bathsheba Nell Crocker is echoed by National Security Handler Jake Sullivan just this morning:

“We believe that any military operation of the size, scope and magnitude of what we believe the Russians are planning will be extremely violent,” Sullivan outlined. “It will cost the lives of Ukrainians and Russians, civilians and military personnel alike.”

“But we also have intelligence to suggest that there will be an even greater form of brutality because this will not simply be some conventional war between two armies,” he continued. “It will be a war waged by Russia on the Ukrainian people to repress them, to crush them, to harm them, and that is what we laid out in detail for the [United Nations] because we believe that the world must mobilize to counter this kind of Russian aggression should those tanks roll across the border, as we anticipate they very well may do in the coming hours or days.”

Again, he's writing Tom Clancy thrillers about imaginary wars, and he's been doing it for weeks. Each time he does it, he sheds a little more credibility, and if Putin does invade at some point down the road, people will have minimized the possibility because Sullivan's predictions failed to come true, time after time. But I'm increasingly convinced the administration is stirring up an imaginary crisis for domestic consumption.