Valkyrie Lite

John Sexton at Hot Air didn't even bother to put up a new post. He just edited the title of the same one I linked yesterday, The rebellion in Russia is really happening (Update: It's over). The outcome of all yesterday's excitement turned out to be a hybrid of Valkyrie Lite and the Whiskey Rebellion -- the feckless coup attempt by the Stauffenberg plotters was put down within hours by Hitler on July 20, 1944, but it was followed by ruthless executions of thousands. In contrast, George Washington put down the Whiskey Rebellion in 1794 on terms a lot like Putin's:

Washington himself rode at the head of an army to suppress the insurgency, with 13,000 militiamen provided by the governors of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The rebels all went home before the arrival of the army, and there was no confrontation. About 20 men were arrested, but all were later acquitted or pardoned.

The bottom line for Hitler, Putin, and Washington was that the various decapitation or resistance attempts against them were thwarted without much effort, and in the cases of Putin and Washington, on remarkably generous terms. Last year, I said the best sources on the Russo-Ukraine War were Reddit r/Ukrainian Conflict and the Daily Kos. I hadn't looked at them for at least six months, but I continue to think this in trying to find out what's up with the weird Prigozhin not-quite coup. The Daily Kos:

There have been mountains of speculation about Prighozin’s one day rebellion and “protest march” towards Moscow, but the simplest and probably best explanation is that his business, the Wagner group, was being taken from him by the Russian military without compensation. The rebellion was about Prigozhin getting paid and getting to keep his business. That’s why he and his remaining forces have gone to Belarus. He was getting pushed out of business by the Russian generals, but now he has a sponsor and a new home.

. . . There could also be another motive. Putin may be using this stunt to gain better control of Belarus.

It's worth noting that the Institute for the Study of War, the neoconservative think tank that's advocated US involvement in the Russo-Ukraine War from the start, published no campaign update on its site for yesterday, June 24, although it normally posts seven days a week, and it heavily covered the opening of the Prigozhin campaign on Friday.

I think this is a problem, because the overwhelming feeling I had during yesterday's early reports of an armored column racing toward Moscow without resistance was that if this succeeded, it would be complete vindication of the neoconservative rationale for supporting Ukraine, that a relatively minimal level of assistance in a proxy war would result in dismantling the Putin regime and potentially the Russian state. But this fails the reasonability checks that have emerged since last fall: Russia may be degenerate and corrupt, but it's a big place with a lot of people, a lot of ammunition, and a lot of tanks.

In spite of that, there are people who continue to try to put the best face on developments:

If in fact Wagner is standing down it is likely because Army Chief of Staff Gerasimov & Defense Minister, Shoigu are being replaced by officials loyal to Prigozhin & that would make him the most powerful man in Russia now

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) June 24, 2023

The day after Prigozhin's capitulation, there are rumors of changes at the top in Russia's military, but so far, nothing concrete and no indications that Prigozhin allies would be installed whatever changes might be made. The best conclusion we can draw is that either Prigozhin's actual goals were so small that he could accomplish them with a one-time motorcade -- for instance, he simply wanted some money -- or they were so unrealistic that when it became clear that the Russian army would remain loyal to Putin, he had no choice but to give up immediately. Neither suggests Putin is weak or that Prigozhin has won some sort of effective victory.

The takeaway is that we had a brief, bright pseudo-event that burned itself out within 24 hours and left everything unchanged. Its only effect was very briefly to give the impression that Ukraine hawks' wishful thinking could be vindicated.