The Elites Lose More Credibility

The two chief issues right now are Afghanistan and COVID, and what seems to bring them together is a growing sense that the elite people who were supposed to be managing the situation are incompetent. In both cases, there are wild reversals in policy direction with little apparent planning and analysis, leading to a steady decline in credibility. On the COVID front, for instance,

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has demonstrated what anonymous administration officials described to Politico as a “worrying drop” in coronavirus vaccine efficacy over time, leading to the Biden administration’s conclusion to push vaccine booster shots.

. . . The data, which the White House Covid-19 task force reviewed Sunday, is expected to become public this week. As a result, the Biden administration is expected to roll out its plan to push booster shots for fully vaccinated Americans, but details are still being worked out, as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) needs authorize the booster shots. Notably, the FDA has not formally authorized any of the vaccines. Rather, they are all operating under emergency use authorization. . .

But the CDC website still says categorically:

• COVID 19-vaccines are effective. They can keep you from getting and spreading the virus that causes COVID-19. Learn more about the different COVID-19 vaccines.
• COVID-19 vaccines also help keep you from getting seriously ill even if you do get COVID-19.

Except now, maybe not. But if the theory is now that the shots maybe only work for six months, why is the data so different across, and even within, regions? For instance, Oregon has a vaccination rate of 56.8%, Here is its current graph of COVID cases:

Their cases are through the roof, worse even than during the late 2020 surge. But look at the same graph for neighboring California, with a vaccination rate of 54.5%, lower than Oregon:

LA County, whose data drives the state's overall performance, has announced that its current surge has peaked, and daily reports reflect this. I think the comparison should at least raise questions about whether either vaccines or mask mandates are as effective as the authorities claim. The late 2020 surge was severe in LA County, but masks, social distance, and renewed business closures were completely ineffective in controlling it. But it peaked and declined rapidly as of mid-January, before anyone had been "fully vaccinated", which takes eight weeks.

Meanwhile, Oregon, with a higher vaccination rate and a renewed indoor mask mandate like that in LA County, is experiencing a bigger surge than it had in late 2020. LA County, with the same indoor mask mandate, is showing a completely different record, much milder than in late 2020.

I've heard the opinion that the severe late 2020 surge in LA County left many more people with natural immunity, resulting from those who recovered from mild (or even severe) cases or the estimated 40% who never had symptoms. This may or may not be the eventual explanation, but I think it suits the data I see better than the current sorta-kinda official version that now we need boosters.

Who benefits from a new round of shots, anyhow? Big Pharma. Heck, maybe we should ask who benefitted from 20 years in Afghanistan. Big something, you can be sure.