Trump Still Moving The Needle

A new Fox poll is out, which this analysis sums up:

If the new Fox News poll is accurate, it should be sending off warning bells to Joe Biden because there are multiple elements that indicate big trouble for him.

The first is that former President Donald Trump has extended his lead over Biden in their survey. He's now up by five points in the head-to-head numbers, as well as five points ahead of Biden even when adding in the other party candidates. According to Interactive Polls this is the largest lead ever for Trump in Fox polling.

Nobody seems to have pointed this out, but the answer is in two words: Fani Willis. Trump's slow but steady rise in the polls is continuing, but the big thing that's been driving it since last fall has been the lawfare cases against him, which are continuing to backfire. I've noted here that Alan Dershowitz, one of the people who invented the Chicago Seven strategy for turning trials into street theater, has recognized that this is precisely the strategy Trump is following, and it's working every bit as well as it worked for the Chicago Seven in the 1960s.

This is because, just as Judge Julius Hoffman unintentionally cooperated with the strategy back then, the lawfare judges and prosecutors are helping it now. Even poor Judge McAfee, whose manner is thoughtful and even-handed, has clumsily cooperated with Trump and the rest of the defense by permitting Fani Willis to stay on the case, which has allowed Willis to stay in the public eye with her grandiosity and bizarre self-justification. Had he removed her, he would have done the prosecution a big favor. Instead, the circus continues, all to Trump's benefit.

And Trump is fully aware of how well the Chicago Seven strategy works:

Donald Trump once again went scorched earth against the daughter of the judge overseeing his New York hush-money trial on Thursday, posting a fiery rant to Truth Social that called her out by name.

That woman, Loren Merchan, has become the focal point of Trump’s attacks against her dad, Judge Juan Merchan, in his longshot attempt to have him ousted as the judge presiding over his criminal case in New York.

. . . “Judge Juan Merchan is totally compromised, and should be removed from this TRUMP Non-Case immediately,” he posted Thursday afternoon. “His Daughter, Loren, is a Rabid Trump Hater, who has admitted to having conversations with her father about me, and yet he gagged me.”

. . . “She works for Crooked Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Adam “Shifty” Schiff, and other Radical Leftists who Campaign on ‘Getting Trump,’” he said, adding that her work has created a “TOTAL Conflict.”

The story characterizes this as part of Trump's "longshot attempt" to have Judge Merchan taken off the case. Nothing could be farther from the truth. This is an attempt, which could well succeed, to provoke Merchan into further angry retaliation, which will create headlines the media can't resist covering, while giving Trump more free publicity, which will continue to drive him up in the polls. As was the case in the Chicago Seven trial, rhe best strategy would have been to remove Judge Julius Hoffman, as well as probably just to drop the case. Instead, it made Abbie Hoffman, at best a very troubled figure, into a media hero.

In other words, the lawfare strategy, which is often attributed to Biden himself, is continuing to backfire badly. It focuses attention on Trump, and it unavoidably forces a contrast between Trump, who comes off as a strong figure and even a bit of a bad boy, with Biden, who appears stiff and ineffectual, having to rely on figures like Merrick Garland, Fani Willis, Jack Smith, and Judges Engoron and Merchan, to do his fighting for him -- except that those figures appear to be ineffectual and even comical as well.

Meanwhile,

Donald Trump attended Thursday's wake of a New York City police officer gunned down in the line of duty and called for "law and order" as part of his attempt to show a contrast with President Joe Biden and focus on crime as part of his third White House campaign.

. . . The visit by Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, came as Biden was also in New York for a previously scheduled fundraiser with former Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Trump has accused Biden of lacking toughness, and his campaign sought to contrast his visit with Biden's fundraiser.

Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung, in a post on X, noted Trump's visit and said, "Meanwhile, the Three Stooges — Biden, Obama, and Clinton — will be at a glitzy fundraiser in the city with their elitist, out-of-touch celebrity benefactors."

Trump and his campaign staff are on their game, now coming up with new labels for their opponents, in contrast with lame attempts by Biden to do the same with "broke Don". Earlier in the month, Biden had suggested he'd turn things around starting with the State of the Union. Visuals like the New York police officer's wake and even the collapse of the Baltimore Key Bridge (which would normally have nothing to do with the White House) are in fact beginning a whole new series of setbacks for Biden.