Have They Thought This Through?

I haven't seen much discussion about what the actual COVID mandate that Biden announced last Thursday will actually look like. For instance, various groups, unions, and states have announced they'll file suit against the mandate, but they can't even start until OSHA publishes the actual rules -- so far, I've seen nothing about when this will take place.

But let's say the rules go in, and they turn out to be fully constitutional, no problem, the Supreme Court refuses to intervene in any of the cases that come out. What could go wrong?

We really don't have solid numbers on exactly how many people would be affected by the current mandate. Anywhere from 60 to 80 million in the US are unvaxxed. We don't know how many work for companies that come under the mandate and would need to fire unvaxxed employees. Nor do we know how firm the unvaxxed will be when faced with getting the shots or losing their jobs.

But we're starting to get a taste of how this could turn out. In upstate New York,

An upstate New York hospital will stop delivering babies later this month, in part because of employee resignations over a requirement they be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Six maternity staff members resigned from Lewis County General Hospital during the past week, worsening an existing staff shortage, the Watertown Daily Times reported. The department has seven other unvaccinated employees who also could decide to leave, hospital officials said.

. . . Services also may have to be curtailed in five other departments if staff members resign rather than be vaccinated by the state’s Sept. 27 deadline for health care workers, authorities said.

But this leaves aside the question of how the mandate will be enforced once the rules are issued. How many employers have more than 100 workers? We're talking about some percentage of 60 to 80 million potential employees. It sounds like at least some employers will have their operations seriously limited if key employees are firm enough to quit or be fired. Will they risk penalties by looking the other way?

Where will OSHA find the staff to cover this completely new responsibility? Will they need training? What will happen when, inevitably, brand new power-mad OSHA inspectors shut companies down for bogus reasons?

Assuming this could seriously affect corporate operations, will exceptions need to be made? The US Surgeon General seems to be telegraphing this possibility, as it affects potential vaccine passports for flying. In a CNN interview:

[Vivek] Murthy was also defensive of Biden not announcing vaccination requirements on airplanes despite expanding these requirements to U.S. businesses and companies.

. . . And we know that, when it comes to mandating vaccines for travel, there are important issues around equity that would have to be worked out to ensure that people, for example, if they had to travel in the case of emergency to see a relative who got sick, would be able to do that, even if they weren't vaccinated,' he said.

But wait. What if GE is forced to fire a single mom with ten kids? What if those fired are overwhelmingly in minorities? Will equity apply there, too? But forget equity. You know darn well the reason the airlines don't want vaccine passports, it would cut their patronage by 40%. But if Ford or UPS loses 40% of their line workers, it'll have the same effect. Heck, what if you have to fire 40% of the police?

Will there need to be equity tribunals to solve these problems? You might say that some of the unvaxxed who get fired could go to work for the equity tribunals, except they'd be federal employees who'd need to be vaxxed.

In the same interview, Murthy says Biden has more regulations he'll announce this week. I seriously question whether anyone has thought any of these through.

Well, handsome is as handsome does. These are the people who brought us the Afghanistan withdrawal.