The Vaccine Is Turning Into A Disaster

So I'm seeing headlines about Statement on crossing state lines for vaccine, COVID-19 vaccine lines growing across states, HOLLYWOOD ELITE CUTTING LINES, and so forth.

My wife stopped by a local Subway, and the lady behind the counter, seeing my wife was a member of the eligible over-65 cohort, asked if she'd gotten her shot yet. My wife replied that we've checked, and there's so far no realistic way we can get one, even though we're eligible. The lady behnid the counter said she had a friend who paid to get it, but then he bragged about it, and now he's under investigation.

I've done web searches on whether there's a black market in the vaccine. A few articles say there "could" be one, but it's only for the wealthy, and anyhow, it's Trump's fault. But the Subway lady's friend doesn't sound like he's rich and powerful -- at minimum, he wouldn't be investigated if he were. So it seems like stuff is happening, but the media isn't covering it, at least not yet.

My wife sent me a link to a vaccine tracker from a local news station. As of this morning,, this is what it shows:

Two things don't seem to fit. One is that California's populatoni is 39.5 million. If roughly 4.9 million doses have been administered, this is 12% of the population. That would be pretty good if it were the case. But the state is still in Phase 1a of the target population, which is those over 75 and front-line workers -- and by the account at least of the Kaiser health plan, they're still working on this group. But those over 75 in California number only 1.7 million. And they're not done with these yet.

Nevertheless, LA County and other areas have lowered the eligible age to 65. There are 1.9 million Californians between 65 and 74. This gives a total of 3.6 million Californians over 65. According to the tracker with today's data, this is far below the 4.9 million doses the state says it's administered, but the situation on the ground appears not to relfect this -- again, Kaiser says that due to shortages, it isn't even done with the over 75s.

The 4.9 million total doesn't distinguish between first and second doses, and we don't have a good count of how many "front line" workers are in this total. But it does seem like, if 4.9 million doses have actually been administered, the state should be much farther along than it seems to be.

This leaves out the separate question of why the tracker says 7.4 million doses have been received, but only 4.9 million have been administered. The story nationally seems to be that some number of these are going bad on the shelf. In California, this could be fully a third of those delivereed. Sonebody needs to ask questions.

This story from San Francisco may provide some additionial insight:

Hing Yiu Chung lives in a racially diverse San Francisco neighborhood hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. While vaccines have been difficult to come by, the 69-year-old got one by showing proof she lives where she does.

She had to wait in line for two hours with other seniors, some who were disabled or leaning on canes, for a chance at a couple hundred shots available each day through a local public health clinic in the Bayview neighborhood.

. . . The experience wasn’t ideal, but targeting vulnerable ZIP codes is one way San Francisco and other U.S. cities and counties are trying to ensure they vaccinate people in largely Black, Latino and working-class communities that have borne the brunt of the pandemic. In Dallas, authorities tried to prioritize such ZIP codes, which tended to be communities of color, but backtracked after the state threatened to reduce the city’s vaccine supply.

The implicatoin is that an Asian woman is lower priority than black or Latin, unless she can show she lives in a neighborhood with enough blacks and Latins.

An LA County press release suggests a similar implicit policy is in force here:

About 25% of all vaccine doses were administered to White residents, 25% to Latino/Latinx residents, 18% to Asian residents, and 17% to residents who identify as multi-racial. African American /Black residents have received only 3.5% of all administered doses highlighting a glaring inadequacy in the vaccine roll-out to-date. Examining data on vaccinations of residents 65 and older indicates that 20% of this age group have received at least one dose of vaccine. However, we are alarmed by the disproportionality we are seeing in who is receiving the vaccine; American Indian/Native Alaskan (9.3%), Black/ African American (7.2%), and Latino/Latinx residents (14.3%) have lower vaccination rates than White (29.4%), Asian (18.2%) and Pacific Islander residents(29.4%). This early data shows us that we need to make it much easier for American Indian/Alaska Native, Black/ African American and Latino/Latinx residents and workers to be vaccinated in their communities by providers they trust.

So far, it's hard to avoid thinking that even if we showed up at a vaccination site, we'd be subject to a racial test. But if there are so many millions of doses coming in, why is there such a shortage? And why is there apparently a black market, and not just for the super-wealthy?