Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Why Don't They Update The Maps?

I'm stumped. Above is this morning's map for the Ukraine theater of the Plebe War. As far as I can tell, the ISW site is the most prestigious ongoing assessment of the war's progress, but it's been misleading in important ways from the start.

First, I think it's generally acknowledged that the thick pink blobs that are said to denote "Assessed Russian-Controlled Ukrainian Territory" do not reflect the fact that the actual Russian controlled areas are really just thin lines along roads where Russian units advanced as of several weeks ago. The truth is Ukrainian forces operate freely within all the pink blobs and conduct attacks on Russian convoys at will there.

Second, the conventional wisdom at this point is that the Russian advances are "stalled" on all fronts except within Mariupol. For more than a week, the ISW assessments have consistently said nothing but words to the effect of "Russian forces did not make any major advances on March. . .", but they're now beginning to add, ". . . Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and around Mykolayiv."

In fact, there are increasing reports from different sources that Russian troops northwest of Kyiv are now encircled, for instance, here. The map key has a blue area to indicate "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" but in several weeks of following the ISW site, I haven't seen them add a single blue area for a claimed Ukrainian counteroffensive other than a tiny, almost invisible line northwest of Kharkhiv. But isn't a counteroffensive that cuts off the key suburbs northwest of Kyiv, "claimed" or not, eligible for inclusion on the map?

The same would apply to the area around Mykolaiv, which Ukraine has claimed to be recaptured. Per the Daily Kos a week ago,

Well, just a few hours ago, we got confirmation that Ukraine had taken Posad-Pokrovskote, which in itself isn’t a noteworthy place. What matters is where it is located: smack center between Mykolaiv and Kherson. That means Russia has been pushed back an incredible 120 kilometers (75 miles) from Voznesensk. More importantly, Russia has been pushed out at least 35 kilometers (22 miles) from Mykolaiv—out of range of most Russian artillery. Ukraine is now less than 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Kherson airport, which would be a massive morale boost. And the airport is just outside Kherson’s city limits.

Shouldn't there have been a blue dotted-line area from just north of Kherson to past Mykolaiv on the map? I mean, since a week ago? Instead, that area, which the best information seems to indicate is still in Ukrainian hands, is still listed on the map as a "claimed Russian advance".

Meanwhile, the retired US general talking heads are pretty much all gone from YouTube, which means they're also gone from network news. When they were on, they gave versions that ranged between defeatist to noncommittal on the prospects for Ukrainian success.

Eliot Cohen's question is worth asking: why can't the west admit that Ukraine is winning? It's a serious question, and the answer is non-trivial. For instance, I'm following the war with great interest and hungry for the latest information. But I'm a retired guy with lots of free time. Fine -- but the retired generals ought to know more than I do, except they don't seem to. The people at ISW are the professionals who do this full time.

I think deliberate obtuseness is one explanation for what's going on.

UPDATE: A report on a revised map from NBC News Chief Correspondent Richard Engel:

Why can't the ISW map be revised with these officially "claimed" Ukrainian advances?