The Other Day I Talked About Murphy's Law

Getting past the simple definition of Murpnhy's Law, "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong", it's worth going into what's thought to be the origin of the name:

The law's name supposedly stems from an attempt to use new measurement devices developed by Edward A. Murphy, a United States Air Force (USAF) captain and aeronautical engineer. The phrase was coined in an adverse reaction to something Murphy said when his devices failed to perform and was eventually cast into its present form prior to a press conference some months later[.]

. . . [During an initial test,] it became apparent that they had been installed incorrectly, with some sensors wired backwards. .. . Murphy blamed the failure on his assistant after the failed test, saying, "If that guy has any way of making a mistake, he will."

The phrase first received public attention during a press conference in which [project head John] Stapp was asked how it was that nobody had been severely injured during the rocket sled tests. Stapp replied that it was because they always took Murphy's law under consideration; he then summarized the law and said that in general, it meant that it was important to consider all the possibilities (possible things that could go wrong) before doing a test and act to counter them.

This suggests that the concept formed at first in a burst of exasperation but quickly changed into a principle of planning and quality assurance -- if you can reasonably anticipate an adverse outcome, the prudent course is to examine its potential causes and do what's necessary to avert them. Thus Murphy's Law isn't just a passive observation of a perverse universe, but a caution about the need for humility and a perception of potential mishaps in arranging any sort of affairs.

This, of course, is one component of what we think of as competence, and the other day I referred to the problem when I talked about the potential that the Harris campaign could, as Sean Trende put it, just keep a balloon bouncing in the air between now and the election, anticipating that nothing could go wrong. We're already starting to see indications that this isn't going to happen. For instance, Kamala Harris VP Pick Leaked by Incompetent Philly City Staffer:

Kamala Harris' vice presidential pick was leaked on Friday due to an incompetent staffer not understanding how to schedule posts on social media.

In a move that will no doubt rankle the Harris campaign, a video promoting Josh Shapiro as the choice was pushed out by the X account owned by Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker. It was immediately apparent that the post was meant to be scheduled for early next week when Harris is set to join Parker and others in the city to officially announce the VP pick.

I'm not sure why it would be so important to keep her choice of running mate secret until Tuesday -- I mean, who cares all that much? -- but if it was in fact so important, the campaign should have been on top of it, and that would include releases on social media. If the campaign can't control this sort of thing, it's not a good sign going forward.

But let's look at the odd developments in the death penalty case against Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two other defendants for planning the 9/11 attacks. While Kamala wasn't directly involved, and as far as I can discover, she hasn't commented or tried to take credit, this is all attributable to the Biden-Harris administration. As of yesterday, it was announced:

The US has reached a plea deal with alleged 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two other defendants accused of plotting the 2001 terror attacks, according to the Defense Department.

The pretrial agreement – reached after 27 months of negotiations – takes the death penalty off the table for Mohammed, Walid Bin ‘Attash, and Mustafa al Hawsawi, prosecutors said in a letter, obtained by CNN, sent to the families of 9/11 victims and survivors shortly before the Department of Defense announced the news in a press release Wednesday evening.

Astonishingly, the prosecutors then acknowledged that, er, something could go wrong!

“We recognize that the status of the case in general, and this news in particular, will understandably and appropriately elicit intense emotion, and we also realize that the decision to enter into a pre-trial agreement will be met with mixed reactions amongst the thousands of family members who lost loved ones,” prosecutors wrote in the letter.

And indeed, something did go wrong, right away, and big time!

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin on Friday revoked the shocking plea deals that would have spared the death penalty for the accused mastermind of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and two alleged accomplices.

In an official memo, Austin, 70, announced he had relieved the official responsible for signing off on the widely criticized plea agreements from authority and would instead assert his own authority in the matter.

. . . Family members of the Sept. 11 terror attacks who were outraged to learn the plea agreements would take the death penalty off the table applauded the abrupt reversal.

“Oh, that’s good news. Because the majority thought that was a cop-out on somebody’s part to give them a life sentence instead of the death sentence,” retired FDNY Deputy Chief Al Santora, who battled 9/11 illness and lost his firefighter son Christopher in the attacks.

“I think they got so much publicity that they changed their mind.”

But this raises intriguing questions. Did the judge who approved the plea deal notify Secretary Austin beforehand? Did Austin approve it before he disapproved it? Did anyone notify the Harris campaign that this was coming? Did the campaign have any input? Who's running the show? Someone should have been not just aware of the potential outcome -- the prosecutors spelled that out in their letter, after all -- but should have been proactive enough at minimum to delay the announcement until after the election, if for some reason they felt they couldn't disapprove it. But hey, they had to disapprove it anyow once it came out!

This is incompetence. But let's look at one of the causes farther back in the chain:

Joe Biden climbed back up the stairs of an airplane that had just arrived and he wasn’t flying on, as Kamala watched in amazement

I mean, he legitimately has no idea where he is or what he’s doing
pic.twitter.com/g5dBZ0CqXo

— Ian Miller (@ianmSC) August 2, 2024

It looks more and more as though Joe's condition is quickly deteriorating, and his adminisration is in disarray, with key staff already leaving and replaced in his inner circle by Hunter and Dr Jill. What could possibly go wrong?

I don't think it's out of line at all to envision a world crisis coming up in the next months with Joe literally incompetent to deal with it, a White House staff in disarray, and a collection of amateurs and bunglers on the Harris staff and campaign incapable of maintaining a cohesive and consistent response, domestically or diplomatically. This is where Murphy's Law is definitely going to kick in.