Sunday, January 4, 2026

Rachel Maddow Works On A Weekend

Over New Year's I noted that NewsNation and CNN had second-string reporters out in the Minnesota snow, not really covering the Somali fraud as much as doing what they could to get ahead of Nick Shirley's reporting. One of Shirley's insights, I feel pretty sure, was that mainstream media doesn't work very hard, and the Christmas break was a perfect time to drop his video, when the cartel had tacitly agreed there'd be no other news.

I also inferred that Trump and his key people had come up with the same strategy over the Venezuela raid, with the news coming out on one of the deadest Saturdays of any year. Let's remember that for Trump, there's no such thing as bad publicity, he makes the news simply by being Trump. It's a losing game for anyone to try to upstage him, but the suits at MS NOW gave it their best shot: they got Rachel Maddow in on a Saturday.

Part-time MS NOW host Rachel Maddow remarkably showed up to work on a weekend, appearing on the network from a mysterious remote location on Saturday morning to criticize President Donald Trump's military operation that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro.

"Not only will [Trump] care about people saying this is illegal, he'll see that as an asset," Maddow said in an appearance on colleague Ali Velshi's weekend morning show, suggesting that the president is a "would-be strongman" who ordered the operation to provoke a war and give himself "expanded powers" against domestic political opponents.

Maddow's appearance on MS NOW—and certainly on the weekends—is a relative rarity. She is believed to be the second-highest paid employee at Versant, the new spin-off company made up of Comcast's discarded cable networks, after CEO Mark Lazarus, but she usually only works on Mondays.

As I noted yesterday, China should be paying special attention to what Trump pulled off in Venezuela, and its foreign ministry immediately reacted:

"China is deeply shocked and strongly condemns the use of force by the U.S. against a sovereign country and the use of force against the president of a country," a ministry statement said.

The Venezuela strike, following the Irsn B-2 raid, has got to put the Chinese on notice that US use of force is likely to be a surprise, unconventional, meticulously planned, and calibrated in such a way as to make any counterstrike irrelevant. This would almost certainly be what would happen just before any Chinese move against Taiwan.

But foreign militsary adventures always have a domestic component. The Venezuela raid has wrong-footed the Democrats:

The vast majority of Democrats are raging at the Trump administration for once again sidelining Congress despite its constitutionally mandated role in authorizing and overseeing military actions.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a statement: "The Trump administration has not sought congressional authorization for the use of military force and has failed to properly notify Congress in advance of the operation in Venezuela."

Several House Democrats floated the idea of impeachment Saturday, with Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) even telling Axios: "We are in 25th Amendment territory now."

It's amazing how unrealistic this idea is -- under the 25th Amendment, Vice President Vance would have to convince, among others, Secretaries Rubio, Hegseth, Nome, Bessent, and Kennedy that Trump was unable to perform his duties, and then he'd have to get two-thirds of both houses of Congress to confirm it. Impeachment would be easier. At the same link,

House Democrats are set to meet virtually for an "emergency" caucus meeting Sunday afternoon, a senior House Democrat told Axios.

Meanwhike,

Saturday, January 3, 2026

Trump Pulls The Same Nick Shirley Trick

With respectable journalists still on Christmas break, Trump sends the military into Venezuela and plucks out Maduro and his wife to face indictment and trial on drug and weapons charges, just like that.

The Chairman of the United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) said on Saturday morning that “Maduro wasn’t just an illegitimate dictator; he also ran a vast drug-trafficking operation. That’s why he was indicted in U.S. court nearly six years ago for drug trafficking and narco-terrorism.”

Senator Cotton said that he spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who informed him that Maduro is in custody in the United States “and will face justice for his crimes against our citizens.”

“I commend President Trump and our brave troops and law-enforcement officers for this incredible operation. The interim government in Venezuela must now decide whether to continue the drug trafficking and colluding with adversaries like Iran and Cuba or whether to act like a normal nation and return to the civilized world. I urge them to choose wisely,” he said.

As a footnote:

Vice President of Venezuela Delcy Rodríguez claimed on Saturday morning that the Venezuelan socialist regime has no information on the current whereabouts of dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores after President Donald Trump announced their capture.

Rodríguez, speaking over the phone with VTV, the Maduro regime’s flagship propaganda outlet, claimed that Venezuela has been “violated, attacked, and assaulted” by the United States and demanded that the U.S. government immediately shows “proof of life” of Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.

The big thing I noticed is how the mission was planned to take place on January 2, when both Venezuelans and the US press were presumably still recovering from New Year's Eve. Trump himself had been at at Mar-a-Lago since before Christmas , but he was clearly still at work, for instance meeting with Zelensky the previous Sunday and issuing Truth Social posts on Iran and Somali fraud over the course of the week -- but nothing specific on Venezuela.

Let's compare this action with the outwardly similar removal of Manuel Noriega from Panama in 1989-90 under Poppy Bush:

Noriega, who had longstanding ties to United States intelligence agencies, consolidated power to become Panama's de facto dictator in the early 1980s. . . . In 1989, Noriega annulled the results of the Panamanian general elections, which appeared to have been won by opposition candidate Guillermo Endara; President Bush responded by reinforcing the U.S. garrison in the Canal Zone. Following the declaration of a state of war between Panama and the United States passed by the Panamanian general assembly,. . . Bush authorized the execution of the Panama invasion plan.

On December 20, the U.S. invasion of Panama began. Panamanian forces were rapidly overwhelmed. . . . Endara was sworn in as president shortly after the start of the invasion. Noriega eluded capture for several days before seeking refuge in the Holy See diplomatic mission in Panama City. He surrendered on January 3, 1990, and was then flown to the U.S., where he was tried, convicted and sentenced to 40 years in prison.

The Pentagon estimated that 516 Panamanians were killed during the invasion, including 314 soldiers and 202 civilians. A total of 23 U.S. soldiers and 3 U.S. civilians were killed. The United Nations General Assembly, the Organization of American States and the European Parliament condemned the invasion as a violation of international law.

The Panama operation took over two weeks and left hundreds of casualties. The time span between the invasion and the ultimate capture of Noriega gave the usual suspects plenty of time to set up their condemnations of blah blah blah. In the case of Venezuela, the whole thing took place overnight while everyone important was snoozing away. You can bet the news anchors were still at their retreats in Aspen. As of yesterday, the story at Reuters was:

Jan 2 (Reuters) - Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro said in a New Year's interview that his country is willing to receive U.S. investment in its oil sector, coordinate in the fight against drug trafficking and hold serious talks with the United States.

"We must start to speak seriously, with the facts in hand," Maduro said in his annual interview with a Spanish journalist, originally published in Mexican newspaper La Jornada and broadcast on Venezuelan state television on New Year's Day.

By yesterday night, this was all inoperative. In an interview this morning with Fox:
he said,

I watched it literally like I was watching a television show. The speed, the violence, you know, they used that term. . . . It was extremely complex, the whole maneuver, the number of landings, the number of aircraft. . . the number of helicopters, the different type of fighter jets, we had a fighter jet for every possible situation. . . and they broke into places that were not really able to be broke into, you know? Steel doors that were put there for just this reason, and they got taken out in a matter of seconds. . . . I've done some pretty good ones in other parts of the world, okay? . . . We did another one not so long ago, it was called the knocking out of the Iranian nuclear threat. . .

He imp;lies that casualties on both sides were relatively low, likely much lower than those in Bush's Panama operation. But it's also worth noting that the Iran strike took place on June 22, the period between Memorial Day and July 4 when respectable journalism shuts down for summer break, which is likely to last until Columbus Day lately.

Both Trump and Nick Shirley are re-teaching an important lesson: act when everyone else is snoozing. But Trump is also building a new set of expectations: he does what he wants, but he's unpredictable. In fact, he'll do it at the worst possible time for his opponents, in a way that nevertheless reflects it's been meticulously planned.

In fact, it's becoming clear that the Venezuelan operation was being planned and implemented in detail over the whole course of the past year:

In January 2025, US President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14157 that directed the US State Department to label certain Western Hemisphere drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists.

. . . In July, the US designated the Cartel of the Suns (Cartel de los Soles)—a criminal organization that the US alleges has ties to the Venezuelan leadership—as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. At the time, the US State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs posted on X that it would use "all the resources at our disposal to prevent Maduro from continuing to profit from destroying American lives and destabilizing our hemisphere"

. . . After authorizing the Pentagon to use military force against Latin American drug cartels, the Trump administration doubled the reward for the capture of Maduro to US$50 million. At the time, an anonymous US official told Reuters that military action against those groups did not seem imminent; another official told Reuters that powers granted in the order included allowing the Navy to carry out sea operations including drug interdiction and targeted military raids.

I love how Reuters has always been the patsy lately.

In August 2025, the US began deploying warships and personnel to the Caribbean, citing the need to combat drug cartels, although most of the fentanyl entering the US is over land via Mexico. On 20 August, Trump ordered three Navy warships to the coast of South America. As of 29 August, seven US warships, along with one nuclear-powered fast attack submarine, were in and around the Southern Caribbean, bringing along more than 4,500 sailors and marines.

It's simply astonishing that Trump, the intelligence apparatus, and the War Department were able to bring all this planning and rehearsal off without a leak. Nobody, it seems, had the tiniest inkling; Maduro was setting up a diplomatic campaign with China that very dayL But consider you're China thining about annexing Taiwan. They now have to consider seriously what Trump would do: he could plan almost anything, he could carry it out with incredible speed and surprise, and the US military could bring the whole thing off.

Trump deliberately cultivates an expectation that he acts on impulse -- in fact, that his motives are entirely self-serving and unpredictable. I'm convinced that nothing could be farther from the truth.

But what does this also say about Secretary Hegseth and the War Department? Think about just one tiny part of the whole plan, that the admirals and gemerals were at minimum too terrified to leak. Not the least little peep. Allowing for the relative scale of the different operations, I nevertheless think we haven't seen anything like this since D-Day and the Manhattan Project.

Friday, January 2, 2026

Nick Shirley Made Reporters Work Through The Holidays

The video embedded above was made by Nick Shirley, the interlocutor in the vignette, about a month before his big video on the Minnesota Somali daycare centers went viral. What strikes me is he's done his homework: he's in St Cloud, MN, where I noted in this post here that House Republican Whip Tom Emmer, suddenly a big advocate of deportimng Somali scammers, had told his constituents there in July 2015 that nothing could be done about the Somalis. Shirley had clearly been aware of that meeting when he set up this interview, and he knew what questions to ask.

Now he's got legacy media running scared. Quasi-mainstream NewsNation, whose business model seems to be to hire former prime-time anchors like Bill O'Reilly and Chris Cuomo from big outlets once they're past their sell-by dates, had its reporter Rich McHugh out in the Minnesota snow on New Year's Eve knocking on Somali heath agency doors. For some reason, I can't embed the tweet, but the Instapundit post that has it is here.

This is an indication of Shirley's reach: CNN tried to discount his effort:

But the mere fact that CNN had a reporter both out in the cold and indoors trying to reach the Somali scammers on the phone over the Christmas break reinforces the idea that they were actually having to work through the holidays.

And what's really remarkable is that Shirley doesn't fit the conventional journalist mold. I asked Chrome AI mode, "What qualifications does a mainstream journalist need to have to be taken seriously?" It replied,

In 2026, a mainstream journalist is primarily validated by a combination of formal education, demonstrated ethical rigor, and technical proficiency in emerging digital tools.

. . . A bachelor’s degree in journalism, communications, or a related liberal arts field (e.g., political science, history, or economics) is typically required for entry-level roles.

. . . With the rise of misinformation, the ability to verify original sources and differentiate facts from opinions is non-negotiable for credibility.

. . . In 2026, "cultural fluency" is considered a primary currency, requiring journalists to demonstrate deep understanding and awareness of the diverse audiences they serve.

But Shirley is breaking all these rules. Let's start with his Wikipedia entry:

Shirley was raised in Utah. He attended Farmington High School in Farmington, Utah, graduating in 2020.

It isn't clear if he ever even applied for any level of further education, but he clearly comes off in his interviews and presentations as well-spoken. A visit to the speech therapist might polish him up a bit more, but this isn't part of the usual college indoctrination.

Shirley started his YouTube career as an amateur vlogger and prankster at age 16. Most of his pranks involved his high-school friends, while others included publicity stunts such as disrupting celebrity weddings.[7][6][5] He also offered to sell some of his own recorded footage, including of the January 6 attack, to media companies such as CNN and HuffPost.

Shirley said in late 2021 that he would cease his activities on YouTube in order to participate in a religious mission in Chile for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. He returned to the platform two years later and began producing political content exclusively.

Like it or not, an LDS upbringing seems to turn out some good kids.

Shirley made multiple videos in support of then-presidential candidate Donald Trump in the months preceding the 2024 presidential election. He paid a number of Hispanic men $20 each to hold pro-Biden and pro-immigration signs in front of the White House as part of a publicity stunt in favor of Trump. When asked by Reuters whether he had exploited participants in the video, he said he "wanted to give the migrants an opportunity to voice their opinions".

This guy is miles ahead of Reuters reporters with four-year degrees.

Shirley's videos typically feature man-on-the-street interviews in protest locations, migrant shelters, and urban areas. He describes his work as independent journalism aimed at exposing government oversight issues. The Hill wrote that due to his lack of a background in reporting, Shirley has "received pushback from some traditional members of the media for claiming to be a journalist".

But according to this site,

In the United States, journalism holds a singular position among professions, a calling governed not by regulation but by constitutional protection. Unlike medicine, law, engineering, or education, journalism requires no license, formal certification, or governmental approval to practice. This absence of licensure is not the result of oversight or neglect, but a deliberate safeguard designed to protect one of democracy’s most vital institutions: a free and independent press.

I've got to say that Nick Shirley turned my much-expressed attitude that reporters and commentators take great swaths of time surrounding the Christmas holidays off completely upside down, and he did it singlehandedly. And now he's teasing another video: But notice his real knack for building interest: "I had to get security for this video coming out.” Hr's picked this up by himself. They don't teach this in journalism school.

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

"Somalis Gonna Somali. They’re A Deeply Tribal People"?

Intellectual welterweight Glenn Reynolds posted this on Instapundit, linking to a substack essay by Alex Berenson, who is smarter, although I'm not always sure by how much. Berenson says,

It is impossible to understand the massive chunk of the world that runs from Morocco 4,000 miles east to Pakistan and south across Africa without realizing the importance of tribes.

. . . What it shares more than anything is a commitment to tribe as the center of identity. In Arab and Muslim countries, cousin marriage helps sustain tribal identity; marriages between cousins account for two-thirds of all marriages in Pakistan and nearly as many in some Arab countries.

Wait a moment. Let's rewrite the first sentence: "It is impossible to understand the massive chunk of the world that runs 10,500 miles from the Bering Strait to Cape Horn in the pre-Colombian era without realizing the importance of tribes." This might sound appealing to Ivy Leaguers, but it's a meaningless statement. By the same token, I asked Chrome AI mode, "Did the names of ancient Romans have a tribal component?" It answered,

Yes, formal Roman names included a tribal component, though it was primarily used for administrative and political identification rather than daily address.

. . . The tribe component is distinct from the nomen, which designated a person’s gens or clan (e.g., the Julii or Cornelii).

While early tribes were geographical or based on old family territories, they eventually became administrative units that did not strictly reflect where a person lived.

Membership in a tribe served as prima facie proof of Roman citizenship.

As Glenn Reynolds would put it, Indigenous Americans gonna Indigenous American. Ancient Romans gonna Ancient Roman; any statement like this is a tautology, and Alex Berenson has said precisely nothing, but I'm sure Cornell undergraduates would disagree. And Glenn Reynolds is a brilliant law professor, huh?

If "tribalism" doesn't explain the penchant of Somali immigrants in large groups to commit fraud, what does? Here's another data point, linked just a few posts down at Instapundit:

The impllcation might be that one group of Somalis in Washington State, many hundreds of miles from Minnesota, is doing the same sort of thing because they're Somalis, which means they're "tribal", or something like that. But this tells us nothing at all, except that like many other groups all over the world and throughout history, they're "tribal". This does nothing to explain day care centers without children.

I think a better approach is what I suggested in yesterday's post, that "faith-based NGOs" appear to have had a uniform agenda of sponsoring large-scale immigration by specific national groups into designated communities in the US interior, to the point that they're disruptive of the communities they target. This includes Venezuelans to Aurora, CO and El Paso, TX; Haitians to Springfield, OH and Charleroi, PA; and now Somalis to places like Minneapolis, MN, St Cloud, MN, and Federal Way, WA.

The NGOs' overall strategy, which appears to be uniform across the dozen or so biggest, appears to have been to industrialize the Refugee Act of 1980, which helpfully redefined "refugee" for the purposes of US immigration:

The 1980 Refugee Act aligned U.S. law with language used by the United Nations, defining a refugee as anyone who is unable or unwilling to return to their home country because of “persecution or a well-founded fear of persecution” due to race, membership in a particular social group, political opinion, religion, or national origin.

Importantly, this has been our most inclusive definition to date, removing conditions based on people’s nationalities, the timing of their displacement, or the countries from which they were forced to seek refuge.

The Refugee Act created the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) to rigorously vet refugees abroad using consistent criteria, and the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) to ensure that new arrivals are provided with the services needed to become self-sufficient as quickly as possible. Funding was provided to contract with a network of vetted and monitored community-based agencies like IINE to provide welcome, housing assistance, connection to federal benefits and local services, English language training, cultural orientation, career support, and legal services.

Before these offices were established, refugee admissions and resettlement could be ad hoc and inconsistent, subject to debate during an active crisis and resulting in different arrangements for different populations. USRAP and ORR were an investment in fairness, better planning, and smoother integration.

In other words, a new, much more inclusive definition of "refugee" was linked with funding, primarily to NGOs, that provided a wide range of social services to "refugee" groups. Some, like Somalis, were identified and brought in en masse to designated destinations where they could efficiently receive benefits via those same NGOs. New groups, like Venezuelans, Haitians, Salvadorans, Nicaraguans, and so forth, were desingated as a result of the separate Immigration Act of 1990.

This instituted a range of liberalization measures that have recently become controversial, including H1B visas, Temporary Protected Status for certain groups not qualifying as "refugees", and a diversity visa lottery, which admitted the Brown shooter Claudio Neves Valente.

The Immigration Act of 1990 helped permit the entry of 20 million people over the next two decades, the largest number recorded in any 20 year period since the nation’s founding.

TemporarY Protected Status greatly increased the populations of indigent immigrants who would require the industrialized, mass resettlement services the NGOs provided. On one hand, the mass immigrant groups were identified, recruited, flown in, and resettled as cohesive cultural communities in small cities in the US interior that could be given efficiently customized treatment. Another advantage was that, resettled according to this paradigm, they received services in their native language, reducing the incentive to assimilate or learn English.

The services the NGOs offered, as we saw in earlier instances like Springfield, OH and Aurora, CO, were wide-ranging. They included autos made available without licenses, registration, or insurance, and apartment units that could be rented from slumlords without reference to local regulations. They certainly included job training, English language, day care, medical, and legal services that could be billed against federal aid without the need to verify whether the individuals were actually receiving those services.

These are features of the whole NGO industrialized resettlement paradigm, which disincentivize assimilation and maintain migrant populations in a semi-permanent depdendent status, because this benefits the NGOs. Large-scale fraud is going to be an ongoing feature of these programs; it has little to do with the particular qualities of the migrant communities. "Tribal" is a meaningless term that does nothing to identify any specific problem.

The ultimate solution is going to have to be to rewrite the legislation that's created the current environment. Executive orders that stop one or another point problem, or temporary stopping of aid to one or another state, won't solve problems that have 45 or 35 years legislative history.

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

All Of A Sudden, Everyone's Jumping On The Somali Fraud Bandwagon

Just yesterday, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer called for deportations and denaturalizations of Somali fraudsters:

I have three words regarding Somalis who have committed fraud against American taxpayers: Send them home. If they’re here illegally, deport them immediately; if they’re naturalized citizens, revoke their citizenship and deport them quickly thereafter. If we need to change the law to do that, I will. Our nation will not tolerate those who take advantage of our charity and refuse to assimilate into our culture.

But just like cameras are everywhere, the internet is forever. Via the Daily Caller, Minnesotans Begged GOP Rep To Stop The Somalis Over A Decade Ago — He Told Them It Was Impossible:

Minnesotans begged House Majority Whip Tom Emmer more than a decade ago to halt the flood of Somali refugees to the area, but the lawmaker scolded them for their concerns.

Minnesota’s Somali population is back in the spotlight after YouTuber Nick Shirley posted a video canvassing multiple Somali-run childcare centers accused of fraud. However, A resurfaced audio clip from “This American Life” shows that voters were concerned about mass Somali migration long before the recent controversy.

In an episode that aired in October 2016, journalist Zoe Chace narrated portions of the story, including a reflection on a July 2015 town hall event at Aces Bar in downtown St. Cloud. Describing the room as packed, Chace said one constituent told Emmer that he believed most people in the bar “are here to find out how you feel about assimilation of immigrants,” before playing a clip from the event.

“We did not ask for those Somalis. Nobody asked us if we, in St. Cloud, want those Somalis. And we understand that social groups, like the Lutheran social service and the Catholic charities, they’re dumping them in areas like St. Cloud,” the man could be heard stating.

. . . In the recorded town hall, Emmer pushes back on the man, with Chace describing the lawmaker as firing “a warning shot at the implicit racism” directed at Somalis. As Emmer argues that Somalis are one of “the fastest-assimilating populations,” prompting audible groans of disapproval.

Although attention to the Somali fraud problem in Minnesota has been building for several weeks, Nick Shirley's 42-minute video, embedded above, put things in clear focus. The Somali immigration problem is starting to look like just another special case of the bigger issues raised most effectively by City Journal during the 2024 presidential campaign:

Among [Charleroi, Pa's] old guard, frustrations are starting to boil over. Instead of being used to revitalize these communities, these residents argue, resources get redirected to the new arrivals, who undercut wages, drive rents up, and, so far, have failed to assimilate. Worst of all, these residents say, they had no choice—there was never a vote on the question of migration; it simply materialized.

This is the same grievance that was raised by the man in the 2015 St Cloud, MN town meeting: nobody got to vote on the migrants. And the St Cloud residents pointed out another problem that surfaced in last year's campaign controversies: the immigrants are settled en masse in selected minicipalities by faith-based NGOs. I askd Chrome AI mode, "Have faith-based NGOs been involved in settling Somalis in Minnesota?" It answered,

Yes, faith-based NGOs like Lutheran Social Services (LSS) of Minnesota and Catholic Charities were significantly involved in helping settle Somali refugees in Minnesota, alongside government agencies and community groups, providing essential services like housing, employment help, and English classes, especially as Somalis began arriving in large numbers in the 1990s.

But even fraud perpetrated by particular immigrant groups is just part of the overall picture. Estimates of the monetary amount are steadily increasing: It's a bit odd that a single video by an unknown investigator managed to wake everyone up over the sleepiest of holiday periods. I don't think respectable media had expected to get back to work until Martin Luther King's Birthday, if not President's Day. And an unlikely focus of the story is Minnesota Gov Tim Walz:

One of the things I find most odd about Walz is that he constantly seeks the spotlight, even though that spotlight hasn't been very friendly to him. Walz is one of those politicians who definitely doesn't grow on the public when they get to know him more. The public outside of his home state, that is. I don't know what's in the water in Minnesota that makes him so popular there.

It's indicative of how thin the Democratic bench is that they thought that Walz was a viable national candidate in 2024. I'm still convinced that the reason Kamala Harris chose him as a running mate was that he was the only option whom she could feel smarter than. She said that she just hit it off with him better than his rivals, probably because he seems dumb as a box of rocks.

In fact, legacy media hadn't been covering the Somali fraud story seriously until the Nick Shirley post. As of December 13,

The massive billion-dollar fraud allegedly committed by Somalis in Minnesota is still being submerged by the broadcast networks in favor of performative outrage at President Donald Trump’s statements at public events disparaging the Somalis and Somalia.

Early in the week, Curtis Houck at NewsBusters found ABC and NBC only touched on the Minnesota fraud in 21% of their Somali coverage. The vast majority of verbiage was negative evaluations of Trump. Add in CBS, and the fraud fraction went up to 31%, in part because "Face The Nation" host Margaret Brennan interviewed Minnesota Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar about it.

The brilliance of Shirley's video is its visual quality: stopping by day care centers with no children, the misspelled "Learing Center" sign, or the Somalis calling the cops on Shirley for trespassing. It's made to be watched on video; print media will never be quick enough to answer it.

For now, the best measure of the story's impact will be how soon Gov Walz either drops out of next year's governor race or resigns entirely -- or if he does anything at all.

Monday, December 29, 2025

If There's A Formula, AI Will Help You Find It

This piece says more than intended about AI:

A study conducted by Anaïs Galdin from Dartmouth and Jesse Silbert from Princeton analyzed cover letters for tens of thousands of job applications on Freelancer.com. The researchers discovered that after the introduction of ChatGPT in 2022, the cover letters became longer and better-written. However, this improvement in quality led companies to place less emphasis on the cover letters, making it more difficult to identify qualified candidates from the applicant pool. Consequently, the hiring rate and average starting wage decreased.

I've been out of the job market for some years, but I don't believe that, at least after I went into tech, I ever submitted a formal cover letter with my resume. I either mailed the resume in to the individual listed on the help wanted ad, or I e-mailed it, with at most a note saying something like, "I'm applying for the ___ job you advertised on Monster.com" or whatever other site. What on earth would a fancy cover letter have to do with it?

So I'm not sure what this Ivy study is trying to prove -- a resume, at least in a field like tech, should give detailed information on skills aimed at specific tech jobs. Why pad things with extra BS in a cover letter that they may just toss aside before they go to your resume?

Once I'd been on the job market, I recognized there are certain interviews that aren't going to work out; for instance, if you're interviewing with several other candidates and you see who they are, if there's a DEI type in the group, write that opportunity off. Life 101.

If you're interviewing with a company that's run by the HR department, the HR rep is going to get all antsy that you were at your last job for less than maybe a dozen years. No matter that in the corporate environment for just about anyuone's lifetime at this point, there are mergers, downsizings, acquisitions, and people who sincerely intended to spend a career at one place are out the door without warning -- it's only prudent to have situational awareness and keep your resume and skill set up to date. HR reps will never listen to that.

So I just don't know what this whole cover letter study is all about. Maybe MBA programs teach you to write cover letters. Life 101 isn't about cover letters. The story goes on,

Moreover, with the increased volume of applications, employers are turning to automated interviews. A survey by recruiting software firm Greenhouse in October revealed that 54 percent of US job seekers have experienced an AI-led interview. While virtual interviews gained popularity during the pandemic in 2020, the use of AI to ask questions has not made the process any less subjective.

I'm not sure what an "AI-led interview" is. Are you talking to a screen with a computer-generated image of an HR rep aking you, "Where do you see yourself in five years?" (My standard answer to that one was, "In the tech field, people work at jobs that didn't even exist five years ago. I'm not sure I can predict what job I'll be working in five years from now." I don't think I ever got an offer for a job where the HR rep asked me that kind of question; I just wrote it off. Life 101.

But I'm beginning to see how people can use AI to their own benefit. If I were on the job market and beginning to think I was getting AI-led interviews, I would ask Chrome AI mode, which I don't have to pay to use, what types of questions are in AI-led interviews and what AI expects. So, just for fun, I did just that. I asked, "What is an AI-led job interview, what kinds of questions can I expect, and how can I answer them to my best advantage?" Some of the answers I got included:

  • Asynchronous Video: You record video responses to on-screen or verbal prompts; the AI analyzes your word choice, tone, and sometimes facial expressions.
  • Conversational Chatbots: Text-based interviews via messaging platforms where an AI agent asks screening questions.
  • Voice/Phone: AI agents conduct real-time phone calls, analyzing verbal responses and delivery.
  • Role-Specific Technicals: Questions targeting keywords from the job description, such as "Describe your experience with stakeholder management".
  • Mirror Job Keywords: Incorporate industry-standard terms and specific skills found in the job description to help the algorithm match your profile to the role.
  • Maintain Technical Professionalism: Look directly at the camera (not the screen) to simulate eye contact, speak clearly at a moderate pace, and ensure a neutral, well-lit background.
So all that's really changed here is that you're being interviewed by a human-like robot instead of a robot-like human. We're getting into basic questions of how you want to live your life, whether you're letting human-like robots or robot-like humans tell you what to do. I asked Chrome AI mode, "In what potential fields or jobs am I least likely to have to submit to an AI-led job interview?" The answers included,
  • Construction: Electricians, plumbers, carpenters, and roofing professionals.
  • Specialized Operators: Dredge, pile driver, and motorboat operators.
  • Maintenance: Rail-track maintenance, highway workers, and floor sanders.
  • Frontline Medical: Registered nurses, surgical assistants, and paramedics.
  • Government & Public Safety: Firefighters, police crisis negotiators, and 911 dispatchers often follow rigid, human-led civil service protocols.
  • High-End Craft: Artisans, restorers of rare instruments, and jewelry designers whose work depends on unique human judgment.
  • Performers: Stage actors, live musicians, and professional athletes.
Somehow I sense a benign Mike Rowe-like figure hovering behind this. If you want to live a worthwhile life, stay away from four-year liberal arts colleges. Go to trade school or get other specialized training, unless you have really unusual talent of some other sort. Otherwise, you're at the mercy of human-like robots or robot-like humans -- but it's never taken AI to explain that to you, although you can get good information if you learn to ask AI the right questions.

If you're polishing your cover letter with AI, you're letting human-like robots and robot-like humans run your life. Learn to run AI, and don't let AI run you.

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Is AI A Political Issue?

I notice a piece in Politico, The Democratic Split Over Whether to Befriend AI — or Vilify It, that takes 2800 words to tell us that Demnocrats are split over AI. Well, everyone is split over AI, in part because nobody seems to be able to tell us what AI is. I think what's generally meant falls within the category of "generative AI", which creates "new" content using a combination of natural language processing and massive data search.

For example, I asked Chrome AI mode, "Please write me a 500-word report on George Washington". It answered, in part,

George Washington (1732–1799) was the foundational figure of the United States, serving as the Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolution and as the nation’s first president. His leadership style, defined by a commitment to republicanism and the voluntary relinquishing of power, set the precedents for the American executive branch.

Military Leadership and the Revolution

Washington’s military career began in the Virginia militia during the French and Indian War, but his historical significance peaked in 1775 when he was appointed to lead the Continental Army. Despite facing superior British forces, chronic supply shortages, and internal political dissent, Washington’s primary achievement was the preservation of his army. His strategic patience and decisive victories at Trenton, Princeton, and Yorktown eventually forced a British surrender. More importantly, his refusal to accept absolute power after the war—symbolized by resigning his commission to Congress in 1783—cemented his reputation as a "Cincinnatus" figure who prioritized civilian rule over military dictatorship.

This really isn't bad. I wouldn't want to turn it in as a middle-school history assignment, since the vocabulary and concepts are pretty advanced, but I could probably modify the request by adding "as if written by a 13-yeae-old" and get a lot closer. But this simply magnifies the Cliff's Notes problem: back in the day, a graduate assistant needed a set of Cliff's Notes for any texts covered in freshman comp so he could catch plagiarists. Now, it would be a lot harder to allege, "This looks like you got it out of AI", since the range of possible outputs is much wider and harder to prove.

This also goes to the nature of education. If the object of college classes is to produce people who can write papers as though a machine had written them, then AI will replace many four-year degrees at far less cost. Let's face it, this is a major problem. My Google news feed is already aware of it. Instead of linking, say, to the Washington Post, it will embed a video report prefaced by an AI-generated news story. It carries a warning, "This material was generated by AI, which can make mistakes".

But the story is written in complete, grammatical, idiomatic sentences that are on topic and more or less informative. There are human Washington Post reporters who can't do that well. In cases like this, it seems to me that the Washington Post can fire a lot of reporters and editors and produce a better product at less cost. This can be a political issue: maybe we need laws that restrict the amount of news that can be reported by AI and require a certain number of less capable humans. Yeah, that'll work, kinda like DEI that isn't based on race but outright discriminates against talent.

Then I took the next step: I asked Chrome AI mode, "Please write me three paragraphs that look like they were written by David Glann in The New Yorker". It dodged the question, but it did show me how this could definitely be done:

David Glann, writing for The New Yorker, typically examines the intersection of high culture and the quiet indignities of modern existence. His prose is marked by a droll, slightly detached elegance, often punctuated by specific, almost tactile observations of urban life. A piece by Glann might begin with a sensory detail—the precise, metallic click of a turnstile or the specific shade of grey in a Tuesday morning fog—before expanding into a meditation on the shared anxieties of the professional class.

His middle paragraphs often drift into a characteristic blend of erudition and self-deprecation, weaving references to obscure literature or art history into the mundane fabric of a commute. He possesses a keen ear for the performative nature of intellectual life, often skewering the pretensions of his peers while simultaneously admitting his own complicity in them. The sentences are long and rhythmic, carrying the reader through a series of clauses that mirror the wandering, inquisitive nature of a mind trying to find meaning in the architectural sprawl of Manhattan.

Ultimately, a Glann essay concludes by pulling back the lens, shifting from the specificities of a personal encounter to a broader, more philosophical vista. He has a gift for the "melancholy epiphany," where the smallness of the individual is contrasted against the vast, indifferent mechanisms of the city. His final lines often leave the reader in a state of contemplative unease, having been led gracefully to a conclusion that feels both surprising and, in retrospect, entirely inevitable.

I think it's telling me that if I paid it a little more, it would in fact write me a David Glann story, which is another way of saying David Glann is a semi-sophisticated hack who could indeed be replaced by a machine, and you could persuade the upper bourgeoisie to pay for it. So I went one step further: "Please write me the initial paragraph of a hypothetical John Updike story about a middle class guy in midlife crisis". Unbelievably, it came up with this:

Thomas felt the sudden, waxy weight of his own skin as he stood in the fluorescent glare of the suburban hardware store, clutching a brass deadbolt he didn’t know how to install. At forty-four, his life had become a series of quiet, repetitive geometries—the neat diagonal of the morning commute, the predictable cooling of his marriage, and the unsettling realization that his soul was being slowly replaced by the mortgage-backed security of his own routine. Outside, the autumn light slanted across the asphalt with a cruel, golden clarity, mocking the soft, spreading middle of a man who had once dreamed of soaring but had instead learned only how to settle.

You know whwt? This thing has potential. I think I could publish a New Yorker that the same audience would buy for a fraction of the cost, with new writers like Jonathan Christopher, Sarah Beriswanger, Lawrence Fromme -- I'm already working up their Wikipedia entries. This really should be against the law.

UPDATE: Please write the hypothetical first paragraph of a newly-discovered chapter of Moby Dick:

The Great Leviathan, though often portrayed as a creature of mindless malice, possesses a silence more profound than the deepest trenches of the Pacific. It is a quietude not of vacancy, but of an ancient, brooding intelligence that defies the frantic measurements of man’s harpoons. To look upon the unblinking eye of the whale is to witness a mirror of the primordial void, where the turbulent anxieties of the Pequod’s deck are swallowed whole by a vast, watery indifference.