Words Of Wisdom From Sean Trende
I've never understood the point of Sean Trende, or in fact of Real Clear Politics. I've commented on his obtuseness many times here. A week ago, I saw this piece at RCP, Please Don’t Pay (Much) Attention to Early Voting Numbers. I had an instinct that, although it was conventional wisdom, it wasn't going to age well, and I bookmarked it for review after the election. Here's what he said:
Every two years around this time, we finally get [solid numbers] in the form of early voting data. Like manna, these data seem heaven-sent, tempting those who analyze elections into making predictions about the future.
And, every two years around this time, I find myself writing the same column with the same message: Don’t do that. It is not manna. It is more akin to a poisoned chalice offered to a thirsty man.
. . . To see why this is a problem, it is useful to think of a party’s vote total as a part of an equation: The number of votes cast early times the party’s share of the early vote, plus the number of votes cast on Election Day times the party’s share of the Election Day vote. If you do this for both parties, you can calculate a winner.
Here’s the rub: We have only one of those four numbers. All we know is the number of votes being cast early. We might guess at a party’s vote share among the early votes by registration data, but even this is a fraught endeavor since we don’t know how registered independents are voting (if the state has party registration at all).
. . . Republicans are actively encouraging their voters to turn out early. So maybe what we’re seeing in states like North Carolina and Nevada is Republican enthusiasm in early voting that will result in fewer Election Day voters turning out. In other words, the strong Republican performances in early voting might cause a smaller Republican Election Day vote.
Except that that by November 4, the day before the election, even CNN could see what Trende couldn't:
The key states of North Carolina and Georgia both saw record numbers of voters participate in early in-person voting, with the totals in Georgia exceeding the numbers from 2020. The total pre-election voting in North Carolina, however, was still lower than four years ago due to significantly fewer people choosing to vote by mail.
. . . Republicans have made up more of the pre-election vote than they did in 2020. The Trump campaign made more of an effort this year to encourage Republicans to vote early and by mail, a major shift from messaging against pre-election voting in 2020.
Across the 27 states for which Catalist has comparable data, registered Democrats have cast 37% of pre-election ballots, while registered Republicans have cast 35%. That’s a significant tightening in the partisan gap since 2020, when, at the same point and in the same states, registered Democrats held a 12-percentage point lead – 42% to 30%.
In four of the seven key states that will likely decide the presidential election, voters register by party, and in every one of them, Republicans have made up a larger share of the pre-election vote than they did at the same time four years ago. Democrats in these states have overall decreased their share compared with 2020.
In other w0rds, by looking closely at early voting numbers, which Trende said please don't do, CNN came up with important insights into the election night outcome, which seem to have evaded Trende. Jim Hoft at The Gatewaay Pundit points out another intriguing development:
It’s still a bit early in the counting but it appears that Democrats and Kamala Harris not only lost the 2024 election to former President Donald Trump but they lost around 15 million votes in the past four years.
In 2020 Democrats and the legacy media claimed that Joe Biden tallied 81 million votes to defeat President Donald Trump who gained 74 million votes – more votes than any US president in history.
. . . Fast forward to 2024.
So far in 2024 Kamala Harris and Democrats were only able to must[er] 66 million votes – down 15 million from their 2020 total.
Those numbers are expected to rise in the coming days but it is unlikely that Kamala will get anywhere near 80 million votes.
On one hnnd, I think the shift in strategy to early voting was a consequence of Trump's seizure of the Republican National Committee during the 2024 primary season, control he never quite had in 2020. On the other, the decrease in Democrat vote count was almost certainly due to what I pointed out Monday, that Kamala, Dougie, and Tim Walz weren't just bad candidates or surrogates, they were all outright annoying, which caused even Democrats to stay home.So far, neither Sean Trende nor anyone else at RCP has pointed this out.