Sunday, April 30, 2023

Tucker Carlson, David Brooks, Rupert Murdoch, And Religion

One of the explanations for Fox's sidelining of Tucker Carlson (even the actual nature of the personnel move is now up in the air) that's been making the rounds is that Tucker's invocation of religion finally got under Rupert Murdoch's skin:

[Murdoch's} management of News Corp and Fox Corp had become increasingly erratic and one of my sources described him as a “crazy old man.”

In particular, it was Tucker Carlson’s frequent invocation of religion and his own religious faith that unnerved Murdoch and left him aggrieved. On Tuesday, Vanity Fair reported that Tucker’s widely acclaimed speech at the Heritage Foundation 50th anniversary gala was a major factor in Murdoch’s sudden decision to terminate him. The speech had religious overtones, and Carlson spoke of the current political moment as being a spiritual battle of good vs. evil. . . . A source told the outlet “that stuff freaks Rupert out. He doesn’t like all the spiritual talk.”

The Vanity Fair story also mentions a dinner Carlson attended in late March with Murdoch and his then fiancée Ann Lesley Smith (Smith, 66, would have been Murdoch’s fifth wife). Tucker was allegedly Smith’s favorite host and once described him as a “messenger from God.” The two apparently discussed religion at the dinner, with Smith at one point pulling out a Bible, leaving Murdoch “freaked out.”

A week after this dinner, Murdoch called off his engagement. A month later, Fox fired Carlson.

That a 92-year0-ld multibillionaire should be freaked out by talk of religion somehow brings to mind the parable of the rich man and Lazarus, but we'll let that go. This did send me to seek out just what it was that Tucker said at the Heritage Foundation gala that so freaked the man out. The text can be found here. In fact, although he alludes to religious issues in his speech, he avoids focusing on them -- but he does give a few insights into his background:

The people remain noble and decent. So far as I can tell, I still live here. I’m never leaving. We have good people. We have terrible people in charge. And not just of our government, but of the institutions that I grew up in, the Episcopal church, my high school [presumably the exclusive private school he attended], I can just go on and on and on. They’re all run by weak people.

But in summing up, he goes specifically out of his way to avoid religion:

So, if you want to assess, and I’ll put it in non … And I’ll stop with this. I’ll put it in nonpolitical or rather non-specific theological terms, and just say, if you want to know what’s evil and what’s good, what are the characteristics of those?

And by the way, I think the Athenians would’ve agreed with this. This is not necessarily just a Christian notion, this is kind of a, I would say, widely agreed-upon understanding of good and evil. What are its products? What do these two conditions produce?

Well, I mean, good is characterized by order, calmness, tranquility, peace, whatever you want to call it, lack of conflict, cleanliness. Cleanliness is next to godliness. It’s true. It is.

I think a Roman Catholic like Bp Barron wouldn't disagree with this, and nor would an ordinary Catholic who'd paid attention in catechism class. The virtues fall into two categories, theological and natural, and the latter are prudence, temnperance, fortitude and justice -- which have also been called the Aristotelian virtues, so Carlson is completely right in saying they extend beyond Christianity into classical thought. There's nothing specifically religious about them, although if you venture into subjects like natural law, you run into the question of why these are virtues and how this whole scheme came into being.

And Carlson goes no farther in his talk than to say he was raised Episcopalian and is still married to his high school sweetheart, the daughter of an Episcopal priest. Bible thumping is not Episcopal style, but we may also infer that whatever he is now, he isn't the same sort of Episcopalian as, say, Alissa Heinerscheid, the former Bud Light marketing VP. He goes no farther in his Heritage Foundation address than to say nice things about natural law.

We don't know for sure if this was what freaked Mr Murdoch out, and at this stage, we don't even know the precise contractual nature of Mr Murdoch's revenge, except that the religious angle, however minimal, is a current and credible explanation. But I'm drawn to the context of remarks by David Brooks on the PBS News Hour on Friday of the same week Carlson was sidelined:

On Friday’s “PBS NewsHour,” New York Times columnist David Brooks stated that he likes President Joe Biden’s soul of America messaging because the election is a contrast “between a moral vision and an amoral realism” that is represented in the idea that “We’ve got to take care of [ourselves].”

. . . "I think Biden’s instinct is just very different, that we have to have — we have to be a good country, and we have to be good in defending democracy. We have to be good on race. We have to be good on fairness. We have to be good to the marginalized. And so, I think there is — unlike other presidential elections, there’s really a contest between a moral vision and an amoral realism. And so, I think he’s right to highlight that difference.”

Brooks's reference to the "soul of America" is to the September 1, 2022 "Dark Brandon" speech Biden gave in front of Independence Hall.

A main theme of the speech was Donald Trump and his political allies, so-called "MAGA Republicans", who Biden described as a threat to the country and democracy. He contrasted them against "mainstream Republicans" who he portrayed as less extreme. Biden expressed his support for the both the Department of Justice's and the FBI's investigation into Trump.

The Wikipedia piece quoted him as sayhing, "Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic." The effort here is to portray Trmp as the representative of a deviant fringe outside normal social parameters. The difficulty is in how Biden himself seeks to define the mainstream, for instance in his more recent statement in support of transgenderism:

Transgender Americans deserve to be safe and supported in every community – but today, across our country, MAGA extremists are advancing hundreds of hateful and extreme state laws that target transgender kids and their families. No one should have to be brave just to be themselves.

Let me be clear: These attacks are un-American and must end. The bullying, discrimination, and political attacks that trans kids face have exacerbated our national mental health crisis.

. . . I want every member of the trans community to know that we see you. You’re each made in the image of God, and deserve love, dignity, and respect. You make America stronger, and we’re with you.

From a religious, or indeed even a scientific-materialist standpoint, surgery and hormone treatment to alter a person's sex is a chimerical fantasy. Dressing in clothing associated with the opposite sex for sexual gratification is deviant behavior. Using terminoiogy like "soul" or "image of God" in this context is dishonest. The Roman Catholic catechism (and traditional Protestant belief) says God is neither male nor female but is traditionally referred to as "He" and "the Father". Human beings are made male and female in the image of God. You don't mess with this stuff any more than you mess with the rest of natural law.

What's clearly going on right now is an attempt to rewrite natural law, which will always be vain and in many ways blasphemous, but David Brooks, the token "conservative" of state-supported media, is in favor of it, and he says this is what the next election will be about.

Nobody can predict, but the initial omens suggest that the plebs as a whole isn't buying this, either in the Bud Light fiasco or Murdoch's revenge against Tucker Carlson for freaking him out over remarks that are deliberately not even religious. I don't think David Brooks is paying attention. The two issues have brought about two major corporate crises. If this is what 2024 will be about, the initial signs aren't good for the elites.

Saturday, April 29, 2023

I've Got The Same Question

In this morning's news:

Hunter Biden is livin’ large while pretending to be a poor starving artist to avoid child support. At least, that’s what the mother of his out-of-wedlock child claimed in a briefing filed in an Independence County, Arkansas court Thursday.

The story quotes Lunden Roberts's attorney Clinton Lancaster:

“What Mr. Biden has paid, or received as a contribution, for paying these elite attorneys has a definitive and quantifiable value that goes directly to his income for child support purposes,” wrote Lancaster, arguing that attorney-client privilege did not bar the payment information from discovery.

. . . If Mr. Biden can afford a Washington DC, Hollywood, Chicago biglaw, and the best domestic relations attorney on the Texas side of the Texarkana border, he surely must have income for child support purposes."

This is a question I've been asking about both Hunter and his father all along, although i'm also skeptical that any money is actually there -- I haven't been the only person to note that Hunter's various foreign deals have been mostly small potatoes, many never worked out, and his expenses for drugs, ladies, rehab, luxury hotels, cars, travel, and everything else far outweighed whatever he was bringing in. And if only ten percent was going to the big guy, then so much the less was available to Joe, who nevertheless, based on the evidence we have, was already picking up Hunter's shortfall.

In other words, something doesn't add up, not just for Hunter, but for the whole family. Even if we grant that baksheesh was coming in, being laundered, and then distributed to nine or 12 Bidens, these people are all living extravagantly, and several are addicts with expensive habits who are in and out of rehab. Even if we try to add what they're all earning from sinecures and no-show jobs at non-profits, and total that up with whatever income investigators can estimate for all the family payoffs, this simply won't sustain their collective lifestyles.

My surmise here is borne out by another story in this morning's news: Hunter Biden’s Lawyer Controls Entity with 10% Stake in Chinese State-Backed Investment Fund:

Kevin Morris, Hunter Biden’s lawyer, controls an entity with a ten percent stake in BHR Partners, a Chinese state-backed investment fund founded just days after Hunter and President Joe Biden visited China in 2013, a source confirmed Friday to Breitbart News.

After pressure increased on Hunter Biden to divest from BHR Partners due to a conflict of interest upon Joe Biden assuming the White House, Hunter Biden’s lawyer told the New York Times in the fall of 2021 that his client “no longer holds any interest, directly or indirectly in either BHR or Skaneateles.”

Skaneateles LLC, the entity which owns ten percent of BHR Partners, according to Chinese public records from Baidu, was controlled by Hunter as the sole governor until its dissolution in September 2021, a Washington, DC, registration indicated.

But new documents obtained by Breitbart News, first revealed by nonprofit Marco Polo, show the control of Skaneateles LLC is being held by Kevin Morris, Hunter’s top attorney, who also paid Hunter’s IRS debts.

. . . The document shows Skaneateles LLC holds a ten percent stake in BHR Partners, equivalent to $3 million.

Three million? A middle-class house in much of Hollywood, where Kevin Morris lives, can be $3 million. This is small potatoes, certainly for Kevin Morris. Remember he was said to have been footing the bill for Hunter's Malibu rental to the tune of $20,000 a month and apparently paying for his lawyers and many of his other expenses as well. This is not to say that at minimum the statements he gave as to Hunter's interest in BHR Partners were untrue, but if nothing else, it bears out the observation that some have made that Hunter's business activities never brought in anything like what he needed to support his or his family's lifestyle.

What's the payoff for Kevin Morris? If it's whatever he can skim from a $3 million investment -- or anything in that range -- it simply dioesbn't justify what he's been sinking into the Hunter Biden black hole for some years now. Even a conventional set of assumptions that assumes ordinary avarice doesn't explain things here.

I think there's a problem here. The amounts of money we've seen so far in this whole case are pretty piddling as far as bribes go. Right offhand, I'd say the Pelosis have done much better just on graft. Either (a) the money just isn't there, and Hunter has been running a con; or (b) the money is there, but so far, we haven't seen where it is, or (c) the payoffs are being made in a way we don't yet understand, or (d) there's a whole other balance sheet that we're just not aware of.

This is my current puzzle. It's not too far from the questions Lunden Roberts's attorneys are asking, except that I doubt if Ms Roberts or her attorneys will ever see much money from any Biden no matter what the court does in her case.

Friday, April 28, 2023

"It's Raining Hunter Biden News"

The headline was a wweek ago in The Intelligencer, but so far, the rain just hasn't stopped. The most recent showers, though, haven't covered new developments -- instead, they've delved into details of the extended relationship among Hunter, his associates Devon Archer and Eric Schwerin, and now Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his wife, Evan Ryan. Much of this comes from a period around 2010 that's been documented all along on Hunter's laptop, and it turns out to be suggestive enough to lead one YouTuber to ask if Hunter was "creeping on" Blinken's wife, while another asked straight out if he was "shtooping" her (I have no opinion).

I have, though, been maintaining a detailed file of links and data points covering Hunter's career, and I've been noticing that his life before the events of 2015, which extend from his brother Beau's death to his separation and divorce from his first wife and his affairs with Beau's widow, Hallie, and her sister, is nowhere near as well-documented as the period after, even though a great deal is nevertheless available on the laptop.

But now all of a sudden, Antony Blinken enters the story in a pretty big way. Blinken, it turns out, is another longtime Biden retainer. According to Wikipedia,

He was a foreign policy advisor for Joe Biden's 2008 presidential campaign, before advising the Obama–Biden presidential transition.

From 2009 to 2013, Blinken served as deputy assistant to the president and national security advisor to the vice president. During his tenure in the Obama administration, he helped craft U.S. policy on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the nuclear program of Iran. After leaving government service, Blinken moved into the private sector, co-founding WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm. Blinken returned to government first as a foreign policy advisor for Biden's 2020 presidential campaign, then as Biden's pick for secretary of state, a position the Senate confirmed him for on January 26, 2021.

The entry doesn't mention Blinken's position with the Penn Biden Center after the end of Biden's vice presidential term. But from the new record, we see that as of 2010, when Hunter first appears to have contacted him, Blinken was Biden's national security adviser. The most detailed account of their dealings during this period is in this Fox News piece:

It appears that Hunter first tried to connect with Blinken on June 16, 2010, when he asked Blinken's wife, current White House cabinet secretary Evan Ryan, for his non-government email address.

"Can I get Toni's non-govt email?" Hunter asked. "I want to send him something. Thanks."

Ryan, who worked at the White House at the time and later went to work at the State Department, according to her LinkedIn, then provided Blinken's personal email address to Hunter. She previously worked for Biden as his deputy campaign manager during his unsuccessful presidential run between 2007 and 2008.

So Blinken's wife, Evan Ryan, also had ties to Bidenworld. Her Wikipedia entry says she

worked in the Obama-Biden White House as assistant to the vice president and special assistant to the president for intergovernmental affairs and public engagement from September 2013 to January 2017.

Prior to joining the Obama administration, Ryan served as deputy campaign manager for then-Senator Biden's 2008 presidential campaign and also served on the Kerry 2004 presidential campaign and Hillary Clinton's 2000 senatorial campaign. Ryan served in the Clinton White House, as deputy director of scheduling for First Lady Hillary Clinton and as special assistant to the first lady's chief of staff.

So she was an ambitious Democrat operative even prior to her marriage to Blinken in 2002, and it's hard not to conclude that the marriage was underaken in the context of both their political careers, especially since Blinken was an upper-crust "Episcopalian Jew", an Ivy League legacy from family wealth, while Ryan was middle-class and Catholic.

It appears that both jumped right into a fairly close business and personal rlationship with Hunter when the opportunity presented itself in 2010. The Fox News story continues,

In March 2010, Hunter Biden's longtime business partner, Eric Schwerin, emailed Hunter about a couple White House events and said he "Talked to Evan," referring to Evan Ryan, about them and how many tickets the Office of the Vice President would be allotting for guests.

. . . A couple months later Hunter and Ryan exchanged emails about the Mexico State dinner guest list and she sent him the seating chart for his table.

. . . In August 2010, Ryan emailed Hunter asking if he was still in New York City, prompting Hunter to say he was at "office in TriBeCa" referring to the neighborhood in New York City and that he was taking the Acela train home that evening.

"Tony's headed this way, we are staying and having dinner w his parents. I'm so sorry I messed up w your vm, when Danielle told me she'd found a phone number for you I thought that was why you were calling," Ryan said. "We are back next week, are you guys around for dinner?" It is unclear if they met up for dinner when they returned to Washington, DC.

. . . Later that year in October, Ryan emailed Hunter and his business partner, Eric Schwerin, asking Hunter to call her when he lands, noting that she knew he was traveling.

. . . Later that month, White House visitor logs show Schwerin met with Ryan at the White House's Old Executive Office Building (OEOB).

. . . In a June 2011 email with the subject line "Party" Schwerin emails Hunter saying, "Put Evan Ryan down as a ‘yes’ for Thursday. I think Tony too." It is unclear what "party" the email was referring to.

. . . A month earlier, Schwerin emailed Hunter and Rosemont Seneca Partners assistant Anne Marie Person, asking her to "put lunch with Evan Ryan down on the schedule for Wednesday." It is unclear whether the lunch occurred or what was discussed if the lunch occurred.

. . . In July 2016, Joan Mayer, who says she was the vice president of Hunter’s now-defunct investment firm Rosemont Seneca Advisors from 2008 to 2017, emailed Schwerin and Hunter saying Ryan tried calling Hunter, but his phone went to voicemail.

By July 2016, of course, Hunter had a lot more than Even Ryan on his plate, what with Hallie, her sister Liz, the stripper Lunden Roberts, and whatever else. No wonder Evan went to voicemail. It's plain, though, that her husband Tony felt the relationship with Hunter was productive enough to meet with him at the State Department on July 22 to discuss matters related to Ukraine -- at that time, both Hunter and his associate Devon Archer served on the Burisma board. (Archer was sentenced to a year in federal prison for an unrelated fraud charge in 2022.)

What I take to the partial picture we see here is that the Blinkens, a remarkably ambitious couple, were in fact eager to ingratiate themselves with Hunter, although one would think that Antony in paricular, from a wealthy family of cosmopolitan art collectors and diplomats, would think that playing up to Hunter, a very sketchy guy with nothing like that background, would be beneath him. Instead, both he and his wife appear to have been eager to reassure Hunter that they were with the program.

It reinforces the impression that by 2020, Blinken was willing -- I would guess likely even eager -- to coordinate the letter from 51 intelligence authorities that planted the idea that Hunter's laptop was Russian disinformation. I guess that in at least some people's minds, being Secretary of State is a big deal. My view, having spent a career at far lesser jobs, is that it's likely just a job, and on balance no more rewarding or satisfying than any other.

It looks to me, in fact, that Antony Blinken's spent a good part of his adult life kissing the Bidens' asses to get where he's gotten, when he might well have been much more productive and happier as just a rentier and philanthropist. I sense a deep insecurity there, on which the Bidens, especially Hunter, have been able to feed. And keep in mind that Hunter, for all the million-dollar kickbacks here and no-show board memberships there, was never rich -- when his first wife finally woke up and checked, she discovered they owed far more than they had, and it began to dawn on her that she'd been scammed. I'm starting to think the whole Biden family is just a big grift.

To write about Bidenworld, you need a little Henry James, a little F Scott Fitzgterald, and a lot of Jim Thompson. Why do we find Tony Blinken right in the middle of it?

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Rethinking Moral Panic

Now and then in the wake of the Bud Light-Dylan Mulvaney controversy, I've seen the observation that it marks the end of a moral panic. I certainly think this is true, but the odd thing is that the panic is backward. What we see in the conventional definition of moral panics is that, as in the image above, a new, seemingly threatening phenomenon arises that represents a potential undermining of prevailing social values.

Thus past moral panics have involved witches, red scares, reefer madbness, crime waves, mods and rockers, and satanists. According to Wikipedia,

[T]he concept was first developed in the United Kingdom by Stanley Cohen, who introduced the phrase moral panic in a 1967–69 PhD thesis that became the basis for his 1972 book Folk Devils and Moral Panics. . . . According to Cohen, a moral panic occurs when a "condition, episode, person or group of persons emerges to become defined as a threat to societal values and interests." To Cohen, those who start the panic after fearing a threat to prevailing social or cultural values are 'moral entrepreneurs', while those who supposedly threaten social order have been described as 'folk devils'.

I've been saying pretty much throughout the COVID episode that it's been a moral panic, with phases that have also included a "morning after", over the existence of which there appears to be less of a scholarly consensus. Nevertheless, as related to the COVID panic, there was a gradual recognition that lockdowns; social distancing; closing churches, parks, and beaches; and even masks and vaccines were not only ineffective but counterproductive in solving the problem, which had been exaggerated by moral entrepreneurs, who included media and the public health establishment, enabled by a near consensus among political leadership.

The unique feature of the COVID panic was that the traditional -- and indeed, the sociologically necessary-- feature of such panics had been the need to root out some form of deviance, which included witches, communists, gays, minorities, drug users, and the like. The deviance in COVID was much more widespread. My theory all along was that the deviants in COVID were Trump voters, who in elite quarters represented a widespread contagion that could be spread via worship services, NASCAR rallies, football games, and other mass events, which certainly included Trump rallies.

But this meant that the "deviants" in the COVID panic were something close to half the country, if you do nothing more than count the votes for Trump in the 2020 election. They weren't an easily identifiable minority that could be singled out as scapegoats. In fact, if the elites tried to single them out as "folk devils" in traditiooinal fashion, they proved capable of fighting back, as they did on January 6 -- and this episode in particular has also been represented as a genuine threat to the established order by the same elites who enabled the COVID panic, who tie it closely to the Trump phenomenon.

But as the COVID panic subsided, we got a peculiar new inversion of the standard moral panic: transsexuals, a tiny, easily identifiable group that might once have been identified as deviant, suddenly were represented by corporate media and some politicians as normative and part of the social consensus, and those who once objected to, say, drag shows in schools were characterized as "folk devils". Thus we have the demagogic politician Joe Biden issuing this statement on transgenderism:

Transgender Americans deserve to be safe and supported in every community – but today, across our country, MAGA extremists are advancing hundreds of hateful and extreme state laws that target transgender kids and their families. No one should have to be brave just to be themselves.

. . . I want every member of the trans community to know that we see you. You’re each made in the image of God, and deserve love, dignity, and respect. You make America stronger, and we’re with you.

The "image of God" turns natural law on its head: the "hateful and extreme" state laws Biden mentions are meant to prevent mutilation of preteens who are unable to grasp the implication of gender reassignment surgery or, at worst, prevent drag shows to preteen audiences. The "folk devils" who advocate such measures are, once again, close to half the population. This strikes me as something close to "gaslighting", a word that's lately come into common use to convey the idea that people who aren't crazy are bing told they actually are.

If we parse out the implications of existing moral panic scholarship, we might conclude that moral panics in one way or another do derive from human nature, and human nature isn't basically wrong to resist many forms of deviance. In fact, some moral panics contradict natural law -- such as campaigns against witches. Others, not so much -- the jury is still out on whether it was ever a good idea to minimize or eliminate panalties for marijuana.

But what we've seen until just recently were always moral panics directed against small "deviant" groups, or even groups like witches that never actually existed. Trying to stir up a moral panic against roughly half the country -- or even a clear majority, for instance of those who find transsexualism problematic -- is new and uncharted territory. It seems to come with the prevailing current notion that you can re-engineer human nature.

The incomplete information that's come in so far, though, is that it hasn't beena winning strategy.

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Antony Blinken, Alissa Heinerscheid, and The Great Gatsby

I've already said, speaking of Alissa Heinerscheid, the former Bud Light marketing VP who hitched her wagon to  Dylan Mulvaney's star, that something about her reminded me of The Great Gatsby. This may have to do with the peculiar intersection of upper-crust society, the presumptive locus of stability and social confidence, with ambitious upward mobility, insecurity, and phoniness. We saw it with Ms Heinerscheid, the product of generational family wealth, Groton, Harvard, and The Episcopal Church, who nevertheless felt the need to hire a coach to tell her how to think:

As it turns out, the Bud VP has herself a “professional coach.”. . . when speaking of her professional coach, she becomes animated, shifting her posture to a straighter, higher position, indicating she holds her “handler’s” ideas in higher esteem than her own. When shifting back into expressing her own thoughts or personal experience, Heinerscheid’s body language shrinks and retreats.

Just recently, I've begun to see parallels with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, whose background I covered in this post from last September. If anything, Antony Blinken's background, although like Ms Heinerscheid's "Epsicopalian Jewish", is even more elevated:

Blinken was born on April 16, 1962, in Yonkers, New York, to Jewish parents, Judith (Frehm) and Donald M. Blinken, who later served as the U.S. ambassador to Hungary. . . . Blinken's uncle, Alan Blinken, served as the U.S. ambassador to Belgium. His paternal grandfather, Maurice Henry Blinken, was an early backer of Israel who studied its economic viability, and his great-grandfather was Meir Blinken, a Yiddish writer.

Blinken attended Dalton School in New York City until 1971. He then moved to Paris with his mother Judith and Samuel Pisar, whom she married following her divorce from Blinken. . . . In Paris, Blinken attended École Jeannine Manuel.

Blinken attended Harvard University from 1980 to 1984, where he majored in social studies. He co-edited Harvard's daily student newspaper, The Harvard Crimson, and wrote a number of articles on current affairs. After graduating from Harvard, Blinken worked as an intern for The New Republic for about a year. He earned a J.D. from Columbia Law School in 1988 and practiced law in New York City and Paris. Blinken worked with his father to raise funds for Michael Dukakis, the Democratic nominee in the 1988 United States presidential election.

This guy should not be beholden to anyone, right? Maybe Alissa Heinerscheid needed to hire a life coach, but Blinken, from a family of diplomats, a product of the Dalton School, a French finishing school, Harvard, and Columbia Law, should not need coaching by anyone.

But what on earth is he doing mucking about with the Bidens, a decidedly downscale bunch with mob connections? It turns out that his wife, Evan Ryan, whom he married in 2002, is a Biden retainer:

Ryan served under Secretary of State John Kerry as assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs and worked in the Obama-Biden White House as assistant to the vice president and special assistant to the president for intergovernmental affairs and public engagement from September 2013 to January 2017.

Prior to joining the Obama administration, Ryan served as deputy campaign manager for then-Senator Biden's 2008 presidential campaign and also served on the Kerry 2004 presidential campaign and Hillary Clinton's 2000 senatorial campaign. Ryan served in the Clinton White House, as deputy director of scheduling for First Lady Hillary Clinton and as special assistant to the first lady's chief of staff.

Just yesterday we learned,

Emails from the infamous abandoned laptop that Blinken sought to discredit show that Hunter has ties to Blinken and his wife, Evan Ryan, dating back over a decade, having scheduled meetings with him while he was on the board of Burisma and Blinken was deputy secretary of state.

Initially scheduled for late May 2015, a first meeting was rescheduled due to Beau's death from cancer that month. On July 22, 2015:

"12:00-1:30pm- Lunch with Tony Blinken (State Department)," Hunter's schedule read. "Enter at main entrance ('Diplomatic Entrance'), 22nd & C St, NW. Proceed to receptionist area where Kenny Matthews will be waiting to escort you to Tony's office."

. . . Later that day, Blinken told Hunter in an email it was "great to see" him and "catch up."

. . . It appears that Hunter first tried to connect with Blinken on June 16, 2010, when he asked Blinken's wife, current White House cabinet secretary Evan Ryan, for his non-government email address.

"Can I get Toni's non-govt email?" Hunter asked. "I want to send him something. Thanks."

Ryan, who worked at the White House at the time and later went to work at the State Department, according to her LinkedIn, then provided Blinken's personal email address to Hunter. She previously worked for Biden as his deputy campaign manager during his unsuccessful presidential run between 2007 and 2008.

So what's emerging is that the Blinkens have not only been longtime Democrat operatfves, but they seem to have had a long-standing connection with Hunter's business operations as well -- and Hunter has never quite been on the up-and-up. Matching the July 2015 date of his State Department meeting with Blinken, Hunter at the time had just been kicked out of the house by his then-wife for an episode that appears to have involved cocaine and an overnight stay with Hallie, although at this time, Hunter was also maintaining an affair with Hallie's sister and numerous escorts. That he was coked up throughout this period goes without saying.

That November, Hunter was the recipient of the notorious three-way payment to him and other Bidens for a million and a half dollars that's still under investigation. Not only was Blinken happy to meet with this guy in his office, but he appears to have had some awareness of his foreign business dealings -- and beyond that, Blinken gives every impression that he's kissing Hunter's ass.

Dalton, French finishing school, Harvard, and Columbia Law indeed. I can't stop thinking about The Great Gatsby and how maybe as a book, it's underrated.

Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Why Is Hunter Living At The White House?

I've noted here several times that Hunter has been seen frequently at the White House since the middle of last year, and in fact he went with Joe and his Aunt Valerie on a very private trip to Ireland earlier this month. The latest theory is from Miranda Devine at the New York Post, who has been following Hunter closely:

Hunter Biden is believed to be hiding out at the White House while his baby mama goes on the warpath.

. . . Roberts’ legal maneuvers in Arkansas lend weight to the rumor in Washington, DC, that Hunter has been living at the White House with his second wife, Melissa Cohen, and their 3-year-old son, Beau, allegedly to avoid being served with legal papers.

Numerous sightings over the past six months lend credence to the idea, with Hunter and his family spotted trailing his father and the first lady onto Marine One for weekends away to Delaware or Camp David, or for longer vacations at the borrowed homes of billionaires.

. . . Surrounded by his father’s Secret Service detail and protected by his own agents, it is difficult for a process server to get to him.

From early last year, an elaborate swing set suitable for a toddler was spotted on the White House grounds when the president ambled back to his office from Marine One.

However, just yesterday,

An Arkansas judge ordered Hunter Biden on Monday to personally show up in court in May to address questions about his laptop, including whether financial records on it belong to him.

. . . Hunter Biden's presence at the Arkansas court could create a political headache for the White House and the Biden family. He has reportedly gone to great lengths to avoid getting served with legal papers from Roberts.

But I think if anyone is following Joe's political headaches even desultorily, Hunter's baby mama is hardly the biggest. And even leaving the baby mama aside, Hunter himself is somewhat bigger, but it's clear that the current Hunter investigations are important only insofar as they lead to Joe. Joe is his own biggest headache.

If I were able to do that kind of check, the first question I'd ask is whether Hunter is still renting the Malibu house with the associated one next door for the Secret Service detail. When I last looked at Hunter's finances a month ago, I estimated,

But adding line items like alimony, wild partying, rehab, payments to Hallie and her sister, Elizabeth Secundy, with whom he was having an affair at the same time, plus child support for his natural daughter with the stripper Lunden Roberts, it seems as though Hunter's expenses even during his peak years pretty much canceled out his earnings. But now, with his income much reduced and living under effective house arrest in his Malibu compound, he's got that rent, another child, an expensive new wife, and maybe a million dollars a month in lawyer fees. I can only think Joe is picking up all these bills[.]

As best I could determine in January,

Hunter has been living in a Malibu, CA compound in a $20,000-a-month rental. . . . Access to Hunter's residence is closely controlled by the Secret Service, so that his conditions amount to house arrest. The $20,000 monthly rent on Hunter's house is reportedly paid by Hollywood lawyer Keven Morris, who reportedly underwrites other of Hunter's living expenses. According to that link, Morris also advises Hunter on his "art" sales.

However, the art sales, while controversial, seem to be in the half-million-dollar range, which can hardly pay for Hunter's lifestyle, his alimony and child support, his wife's jet-setting, and all the attorneys. Even someone like Kevin Morris has got to have his limits. Joe also had to have been on the hook for some part of this, and the increase in legal expenses since bringing Abbe Lowell on board has got to be a strain on anyone, whomever it may be and however rich, who's paying them.

So now we hear Hunter and his family have been living in the White House since last summer. My guess is that even if Kevin Morris was paying the rent on the Malibu compound, there had to be belt tightening somewhere, and the rental is done. Not only that, but if Hunter and his family are at the White House, there's less strain on the Secret Service for the separate Hunter detail in Malibu, but beyond that, Hunter is under even closer control -- a lot harder for crack dealers and Russian pimps to do business there than even in Malibu. And a lot harder for the wife to jet-set off as well, which also saves the family budget.

So evading the baby mama's process servers is the least of the reasons for Hunter to be in the White House. But there's another question. Hunter's daughter Naomi and her husband have been living in the White House simce their wedding last year as well. This all says to me there are limits to what Joe can subsidize out of his own pocket. At least he can keep Hunter, Naomi, and their useless spouses on the public dime for a while longer.

UPDATE: Naomi and her husband had apparently noved out as of this past month.

Of course he announced for reelection. It delays his own financial reckoning, which he's doing everything he can to avoid until his executors have to handle it.

Monday, April 24, 2023

The New York Times Signs On To Biden-Is-In-Decline

At Hot Air:

Have you noticed that there seems to be a campaign emerging to second guess Joe Biden’s decision to run for reelection? . . . Over the weekend, two major newspapers published editorials pointing out that Biden’s age cannot be ignored.

. . . Concerns about Biden’s age are legit, says the NYT editorial.

This is behind a paywall, and like the Wall Street Journal's version, it says nothing new. What's important is that received opinion is deciding Biden isn't working out, but they're settling on a version that absolves them of complicity. Yes, they supported Biden in 2020 (in the WSJ's case, implicitly by being never-Trump) but that was before Biden went into his terrible decline. How were we to know? This isn't the candidate we told you to vote for!

But the recoxrd is pretty plain that Biden's shortcomings were visible well before this year. As of 2008:

Rolling Stone magazine's Ben Wallace-Wells related an amusing anecdote about Obama attending his first meeting of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which happened to be a confirmation hearing for Condoleezza Rice.

About midway through the meeting, Joe Biden is "going on and on" and Obama scribbles a note and passes it back to his aide.

The note said simply: "SHOOT. ME. NOW."

Although the anecdote was told in 2008, Rice's confirmation hearing took place in 2005. Yesterday I linked to a TIME piece from 2019 that, in discussing Biden's unimpressive start in his presidential campaign that year, linked farther back to a 1987 post-mortem on his disastrous first presidential campaign, where observers were concerned that he was a "shallow vessel", and whose staffers discounted his gaffes by claiming he was on "autopilot".

What we've begun to learn only more recently has been the decades-long family influence-peddling grift, and in connection with the grift, the wild overspending that's so far been most visible with Hunter, but the extent of the back-door financial relationships throughout the Biden extended family has yet to be revealed with any clarity. As Hunter's ex-wife Kathleen Buhle put it in excerpts from her memoir,

After filing for divorce in 2016, Buhle begins the slow process of taking back control over her own life after 23 years as a stay-at-home mom, including over her own finances, only to discover that they had no savings whatsoever. “Both our houses had a double mortgage and no equity. We had credit card debt and medical bills. We were in terrible financial shape. The sheer amount of our debt overwhelmed me. We owed as much for both houses as when we’d bought them. We were underwater,” she writes.

But it's increasingly likely that Hunter's financial issues had metastasized further throughout the Biden family:

There could be upwards of 12 Biden family members who benefitted from influence peddling by the president and his son, according to the top Republican on the Oversight Committee.

. . . There are nine known family members involved in the shady business deals, according to [Chairman James] Comer, but he now says there could be at least three more.

. . . 'I mean, this was the Biden family influence peddling scheme,' the chairman from Kentucky continued. 'And when people say, well, they were involved in ventures around the world, I haven't found a legitimate business on the Biden end.'

. . . He said these decisions and moves are likely related to payments made to LLCs from legitimate businesses as a way to launder money to Biden's family members.

'I found legitimate businesses that were paying the LLCs that were then turning around and laundering the money back to the Bidens,' Comer detailed. 'But I haven't found any legitimate business dealings on the Biden end.'

. . . 'This is bad. There are more laws that appear to me that have been broken than just tax evasion. And there are a lot more Bidens involved than just the president's son and his brother.'

I noted yesterday that we know very little about Joe's rapid rise to the Senate from an unsuccessful attorney to obscure member of a local county council, although a brief review of those early years suggests he was able to garner support in what Alan Dershowitz calls a highly corrupt Delaware legal environment.

The question in my mind is how all of this is such a big surprise. What's coming out is that Biden has in fact been the same guy for decades. His sister Valerie has run most of his campaigns throughout his career, and it appears that much of his extended family has been in on the grift for the same amount of time. Hunter was actually a latecomer. Ted Kaufman, a DuPont retainer, was a Biden adviser from his first Senate campaign until he became Joe's successor in his Senate seat. Kathy Chung, recently interviewed by Chairman Comer's committee, is another lifelong Biden functionary

If there's been nothing new in Bidenworld, why haven't we had coverage of Biden as he is now and always has been well before now? I'm deeply suspicious of this new explanation that Biden is "in decline".

Sunday, April 23, 2023

The Wall Street Journal, Alan Dershowitz, And The "Delaware Way"

Although it's behind a paywall, the Wall Street Journal has editorialized that Biden shouldn't run in 2024, and the web has picked up the main points:

The Wall Street Journal editorial board argued President Joe Biden is too old to run for re-election Friday, amid reports he is likely to announce his 2024 bid next week.

"The public understands what Mr. Biden apparently won’t admit: that electing an octogenarian in obvious decline for another four years could be an historic mistake," the editors wrote.

The editors continued, "asking the country to elect a man who is 80 years old and whose second term would end when he is 86 is a risky act that borders on selfish."

This is not the WSJ of the supply-side 1970s, when it had new things to say. They don't like Biden, but they don't like Trump, either. Maybe they hope Romney will stage a comeback. Their interpretation of Biden is utterly conventional:

The editors alleged the White House "goes to great lengths" to hide what they speculate is Biden's declining health.

"But his decline is clear to anyone who isn’t willfully blind," they argued.

They pointed to his lack of press conferences, scripted appearances, and public stumbles as evidence for their position.

The hypothesis here is that Biden is in a decline from a different Biden of an earlier era, but my problem is that we don't really have evidence of that more capable, dynamic younger Biden. During the runup to the 2020 presidential campaign, TIME noted Biden's unremarkable performance as of 2019 and looked back to his disappointing perforrmance in 1987 and 1988:

By the time he did declare his candidacy for the presidency, on June 9, 1987, he had been in the Senate for more than a decade, though his age — now seen by some as a weakness — was still one of his strengths.

“What people don’t remember today about Biden in the 1980s is that he was considered by quite a few people as a bright new hope, different from other Democrats,” says [Laurence I.} Barrett, [a former TIME national political correspondent].

. . . “The Democrats had taken two shellackings at the hands of Reagan, and there was this thought, not really based on a lot of facts, that the Democrats were too soft, too feminine, too much into interest politics, and Biden was seen by his own people as an antidote to that — good looking and athletic — who would come across as stronger,” Barrett says.

Not that the candidate was without his drawbacks: “Biden’s mouth is both his greatest asset and his greatest liability,” Barrett wrote shortly after Biden announced his candidacy. That analysis would prove enduringly prescient.

The 2019 TIME piece brought up the 1987 charges that he plagiarized a speech by UK politician Neil Kinnock and the fumbling responses by his handlers, including

2) An Awkward Revelation. The Kinnock kleptomania was particularly damaging to Biden since it underscored the prior concerns that he was a shallow vessel for other people’s ideas.

3) A Maladroit Response. Top Aide Tom Donilon claimed that Biden failed to credit Kinnock because “he didn’t know what he was saying. He was on autopilot.”

In other words, the argument that the Biden of 2023 is in a decline from a youthful, adroit, dynamic Biden assumes facts that are not in evidence. He was Mr Magoo in his early 40s as he is now in his early 80s. If he was thought to be strong, good-looking, and athletic in the 1980s, this was proven to be a fantasy at the time.

But this leads to another question: If Biden has always been a shallow vessel on autopilot, how did he get to the Senate in the first place, and how did he manage to stay there? Interestingly, Alan Dershwoitz made remarks just this past week that may be helpful. In this YouTube video at about 2:25, he says in a completely different context,

Let's remember this is Delaware. I've argued cases, I think it's now 32 states, out of the 50, 32, maybe 34, something like that; I've never argued in a more corrupt state than Delaware. In Delaware the judges basically pick each other. They come from a small number of elite law firms, and then they go back to those law firms, and then they favor the lawyers from those law firms. The favorite word in Delaware, everybody knows it, is "home cooking" or home court advantage. If you're a Delaware lawyer, you get a home court advantage.

But this isn't necessarily limited to Delaware, either: the South Carolina "Murdaugh Murders" scandal shows how a tight insider clique can control things elsewhere in small backwater states. What Dershowitz saw -- and he's quite an insightful guy -- was a courthouse version of a larger phenomenon called the "Delaware Way", described in more depth by The Intercept:

The Delaware Way is the idea that there is a synergy between the success of the state’s benevolent corporate monarchies — the chemical companies, debt collectors, and pharmaceuticals that call the First State home — and the well-being of the state’s people, all of it eased by compromise and good will among leaders of both parties. The Wilmington News Journal explains that the locally famous ethos is possible because the state is “so small, the line goes, that we can get all the right people in one room and get things done.” Like runoff from its chemical plants, the Delaware Way is in the water.

The DuPonts are at the center:

Two du Ponts would go on to become U.S. senators, and a third would serve as Delaware governor. Delaware’s elite social and political circle has largely remained intact for more than 200 years now.

From what I read, the Bidens' Wilmington home is a former DuPont mansion that was apparently provided to young Joe at the start of his career at a considerable discount. Biden's rise hasn't been well covered, but it took place at an early age, and his accomplishments were unimpressive: from the TIME link above, he graduated 76th out of 85 in his Syracuse law school class, and he "failed a course because he wrote a paper that used five pages from a published law-review article without quotation marks or a proper footnote." The lad was clearly not white-shoe law firm material.

But he found favor with the DuPonts presumably because he looked good, had no center, and would do precisely what he was told. This was Biden in the beginning, is the Biden now, and is the Biden that ever shall be.

Saturday, April 22, 2023

Semi-Denouement For Bud Light

This moirning's news was full of gleeful headlines that the horsefaced and sublimely self-satisfied Alissa Heinerscheid, late brand marketing VP for Bud Light, is on leave of absence:

Anheuser-Busch has shared a statement with Beer Business Daily, informing the publication that Bud Light marketing VP Alissa Heinerscheid is off the brand in the wake of the Mulvaney Bud Light can controversy.

“We understand she has decided to take a leave of absence,” Beer Business Daily announced. “Todd Allen is now VP of Bud Light, reporting directly to CMO Benoit Garbe. It appears Todd was most recently VP of global marketing for Budweiser.”

However, I posted a week ago that Alissa was already out, and that she'd deleted her LinkedIn profile was a good indication. I suspect that she hadn't been in to the office since the Dylan Mulvaney story broke. But let's read some other tea leaves here. The story says, “Todd Allen is now VP of Bud Light. . . . It appears Todd was most recently VP of global marketing for Budweiser.”

That says to me that Todd has been demoted, and he's been told to fix Bud Light fast or else. I think the next head to roll will be Brendan Whitworth, the show horse CEO of Anheuser. A couple of weeks ago, the talk was that Dylan Mulvaney was the biggest marketing blunder since New Coke, but I think it's becoming clearer that Dylan Mulvaney is the biggest marketing blunder since marketing even became a thing, whenever that was.

That Anheuser would make such an announcement, in even this offhand way, is an indication that they've begun to get the message, and what was needed was a firing. But the other thing that's needed by general consensus is a specific apology. I assume Todd Allen has the task of working this out in a way that satisfies both the suits and the public, or he'll be the next to go. But I think some sort of semi-specific apology will be the next step, followed by an announcement on Mr Whitworth's plans.

And one of my favorite topics has been the Fringe TV series and how it's a sendup of Harvard, which gave us Timothy Leary and Ted Kaczynski, a blend of which characters the actor John Noble brilliantly portrays in Dr Walter Bishop. But Harvard has more recently brought us Ms Heinerscheid and Mr Whitworth. Indeed, Mr Whitworth was formed as well in the CIA.

It isn't helpful to gloat, but at least in this one inning, it's plebs 1, toffs 0.

Friday, April 21, 2023

The Frammis Is Taking Shape

One of my stylistic models for some years has been the mid-20th century noir writer Jim Thompson, author of titles like The Alcoholics (1953), The Criminal (1953), A Swell-Looking Babe (1954), and The Grifters (1963). He never titled any of his novels The Frammis, but it was a term his characters frequently used, which in context referred to the overriding scheme of avarice and betrayal that drove the narrative.

The media, even on the right, have been on an extended spring break, but as they slowly return to working at the office, the intermittent leaks are beginning to reveal the shape of the Biden frammis. First, he's clearly going to run. This was solidified during that strange trip to Ireland with his sister, Valerie, and his living son, Hunter. We all know who Hunter is, but it's worth catching up on Valerie. According to Wikipedia,

Valerie Biden Owens (November 5, 1945) is an American political strategist, campaign manager and former educator. She is the younger sister of Joe Biden, the 46th and current President of the United States. . . . Owens has played a substantial role in all of her brother's political campaigns. She was the campaign manager during all of his Senate elections and for his 1988 and 2008 presidential campaigns, as well as a senior advisor to his successful 2020 presidential campaign.

Based on the sketchy reports that have been coming out, Valerie appears to be a key beneficiary of the baksheesh that streams into the Biden family accounts, while Hunter has been, and apparently remains, the financial vice president of the enterprise. As I've noted here, the program at least since last summer has been to rehabilitate Hunter, with his wife Melissa and toddler son Beau providing a renewed beard of respectability.

But it seems fairly plain that Hunter and Valerie have been Joe's key advisers all along, with the trip to Ireland serving as a strategy session for both the campaign and the continuing family business. Meetings could be held in effective seclusion, without even the presence of normal White House aides who might prove untrustworthy.

Their plan is in general conformity with the new Democrat agenda -- as Victor Davis Hanson puts it, the purpose of the elderly white guy Joe and other figures like Nancy Pelosi, Steney Hoyer, and Dianne Feinstein is to provide a veneer of respectability for the crooks and radicals who are actually running the show.

Decades ago, they sometimes supported strong national defense, secure borders, gas and oil development, fully funding the police, and a few restrictions on partial-birth abortions.

Not now.

. . . Their final role is to acculturate the electorate to the new Democratic Party.

Its radicals are breathing down their necks to get out of the way. Yet for a while longer they still need such an ossified veneer of respectability to ease the transition to what is now essentially a socialist-European green party.

It seems to me at this point that the deal, for Joe and the Biden family -- or more colorfully put, the frammis -- is to charge the radicals, and the corporations who are paying the radicals off for protection -- money for their part in enabling the scheme. The radicals are making out big time on several counts. They're promoting an alliance with the urban petty criminal class, which must certainly involve payoffs from the organized crime that sponsors drugs, sex trafficking, and other activities, with woke policies, which require corporate payoffs to evade implementation and enforcement.

All well and good -- but figures like Sen Feinstein have probably been naive all along in not demanding to be paid handsomely for their part in enabling the corruption by making it respectable. Thus the radicals want her out soonest, but they'll certainly tolerate Joe for another election cycle -- in fact, at least for the next cycle, they even need him. Joe knows this, and his proxies Valerie and Hunter spent their time with him out of view in Ireland finalizing the plan.

A key part of the deal is that Joe on one hand won't oppose the radical quasi-agenda, which will be implemented at the deep state level, while there will effectively be no expectations for Joe himself, who can continue to spend much of his time retired but nominally on the job. As long, of course, as Joe and the family get their cut.

The problem with a frammis is that it involves a fairly intricate scheme of avarice and betrayal -- but at some point, all options for betrayal are on the table. What if the cartels and corporations who are funding the frammis decide finally not to pay the Bidens? That question is at the back of my mind here.

Thursday, April 20, 2023

Two Headlines Over The Past Week

One: Bombshell filing: 9/11 hijackers were CIA recruits

At least two 9/11 hijackers had been recruited into a joint CIA-Saudi intelligence operation that was covered up at the highest level, according to an explosive new court filing.

A newly-released court filing raises grave questions about the relationship between Alec Station, a CIA unit set up to track Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden and his associates, and two 9/11 hijackers leading up to the attacks, which was subject to a coverup at the highest levels of the FBI.

The story reprises, in more detail and with new information, a concern that had been raised in the wake of 9/11, that protocols between FBI and CIA operations prevented agents on the ground from reporting what they were learning about the upcoming attacks to their respective chains of command.

In late 1999, with “the system blinking red” about an imminent large-scale Al Qaeda terror attack inside the US, the CIA and NSA were closely monitoring an “operational cadre” within an Al Qaeda cell that included the Saudi nationals Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar. The pair would purportedly go on to hijack American Airlines Flight 77, which crashed into the Pentagon on 9/11.

Al-Hazmi and al-Midhar had attended an Al Qaeda summit that took place between January 5th and 8th 2000, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The meeting was secretly photographed and videotaped by local authorities at Alec Station’s request although, apparently, no audio was captured. En route, Mihdhar transited through Dubai, where CIA operatives broke into his hotel room and photocopied his passport. It showed that he possessed a multi-entry visa to the US.

A contemporaneous internal CIA cable stated this information was immediately passed to the FBI “for further investigation.” In reality, Alec Station not only failed to inform the Bureau of Mihdhar’s US visa, but also expressly forbade two FBI agents assigned to the unit from doing so.

It appears from this account that "Alec Station" was a rogue CIA operation that had its own priorities, and it had actually enlisted the hijackers Hazmi and Midhar for its own operation. In doing so, it concealed their 9/11 plans from the FBI as part of an effort to keep its whole operation secret.

Alec Station’s tireless efforts to protect its Al Qaeda assets raises the obvious question of whether Hazmi and Mihdhar, and possibly other hijackers, were in effect working for the CIA on the day of 9/11.

The real motives behind the CIA’s stonewalling may never be known. But it appears abundantly clear that Alec Station did not want the FBI to know about or interfere in its secret intelligence operation. If the unit’s recruitment of Hazmi and Mihdhar was purely dedicated to information gathering, rather than operational direction, it is incomprehensible that the FBI had not been apprised of it, and was instead actively misdirected.

An FBI agent involved in the thwarted investigation concluded, "To this day I’m unsure who was behind September 11, nor can I even guess… Someday the truth will reveal itself, and I have a feeling that people won’t like what they hear.”

Second headline: Intel community may be stalling COVID origins assessments for political reasons, ex-director says:

The CIA's "unjustifiable" refusal to formally assess COVID-19 origins suggests the Biden administration is afraid to face the "enormous geopolitical consequences" of a confirmed lab leak "head-on," in line with its reluctance to confront China on its spy balloon, according to President Trump's final director of national intelligence.

. . . Personal and political motivations may be at play in the holdout IC agencies, according to [former Director of National Intelligence John] Ratcliffe. He cited a January 2021 unclassified report where IC analytic ombudsman Barry Zulauf told the Senate Intelligence Committee that in-house China analysts "appeared reluctant" to share analyses that could aid Trump administration policies "they tended to disagree with."

"I do think there were headwinds to get new information" from analysts when he was DNI, Ratcliffe said, and "on occasion" he felt analyses were withheld from him or altered.

Subcommittee Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) pledged the panel would examine the motives of IC analysts reviewing the origins evidence. He said he's seen further evidence of this as a House Intelligence Committee member privy to more sensitive information.

Let's consider that the two events that have been most influential in driving public debate and public policy so far this century have been the 9/11 attacks and the COVID pandemic. The hints we're getting here, which strike me as being not just wild conspiracy theories, suggest that the intelligence community knows more than it will admit about how these events came to pass, and it appears to be actively working against efforts to learn more -- to the extent that, as the FBI agent put it, when the truth does eventually come out, people won't like what they hear.

This is an indication of how big a task is facing anyone who wants to reform the system in Washington.

 

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

An Elon Musk With Gravitas? Don't Be Too Sure.

I really have no comment to make on his recernt dire predictions about artificial intelligence -- either he doesn't understand it very well, or I don't, but this is a guy who has something like ten kids, all parented via surrogacy from what we can tell, along with an additional bunch of frozen embryos he made with Amber Heard. Allegedly. I'm going to trust my judgment over his in practically any matter, including what to do with Twitter.

On the other hand, he's unexpectedly said something smart:

Musk told Fox News host Tucker Carlson that “if anyone would know about aliens on Earth it would probably be me.”

“To the best of my knowledge, we see no evidence of conscious life anywhere in the universe,” Musk said. “So it might be there. You know, in physics they call it sort of the Fermi paradox after when Enrico Fermi, he’s an amazing physicist, asked the fundamental question, where are the aliens?”

“I’ve seen no evidence of aliens,” Musk said, adding that if he did he would instantly post about it on Twitter — a company that he purchased late last year and where he currently serves as CEO.

. . . He said the military, which is often suspected of hiding knowledge about aliens, would be acting in its own interest to disclose an extra-terrestrial threat. He paraphrased a defense official who once said the Pentagon would get carte blanche from taxpayers if it produced an alien.

Well, we got rare common sense from him on one issue, but then what about his fantasies of a Mars mission?

A crewed mission to Mars could happen in 2029, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk hints.

A tweet on Monday comparing the moon landing to a future Mars landing attached a photo of the moon landing dated 1969, on top of an image of an envisioned Mars landing, labeled "20 --." The tweet, from Space_Hub, an account that posts about space and astronomy, read "What's your guess" and tagged Musk.

Two days after the tweet, Musk replied "2029."

Musk has long seen a visit to Mars as a goal. In 2016, he said he wanted to build a rocket capable of taking people to Mars and supporting a permanent city on the planet.

"It's something we can do in our lifetimes," he told an audience of 100,000 watchers at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico. "You could go."

But Musk's older predictions don't necessarily match up with his latest. In 2016, he told the Y Combinator, a startup accelerator, that getting a "meaningful number of people" on Mars was possible "in about 10 years, maybe sooner, maybe nine years."

However, efforts to simulate Mars missions or a Mars colony have pretty uniformly ended in comical failure, a little like Musk's attempts to have a family. For instance,

For the past five years, small groups of people have made [a] drive [to the top of Mauna Loa in Hawaii] and moved into [a] dome, known as a habitat. Their job is to pretend that they really are on Mars, and then spend months living like it. The goal, for the researchers who send them there, is to figure out how human beings would do on a mission to the real thing.

In February of this year [2018], the latest batch of pioneers, a crew of four, made the journey up the mountain. They settled in for an eight-month stay. Four days later, one of them was taken away on a stretcher and hospitalized.

The remaining crew members were evacuated by mission support. All four eventually returned to the habitat, not to continue their mission, but to pack up their stuff. Their simulation was over for good. The little white dome has remained empty since, and the University of Hawaii, which runs the program, and nasa, which funds it, are investigating the incident that derailed the mission.

According to the Guardian,

In 1991, members of an experimental theater troupe undertook an audacious project to create a completely self-sustained ecosystem. At the Biosphere 2 facility in Arizona, a mixed-gender group of eight volunteers were enclosed in a giant terrarium, with water, plants and animals, for two years.

Tensions ran high; food, and eventually oxygen, ran low. The mission was only completed with the aid of emergency supplies smuggled in. In 1994 a second group tried, but were forced to end their mission early because of a power struggle in the Biosphere’s ownership.

Think of it -- an intrepid crew of astronauts reaches Mars only to be recalled due to conflicts in SpaceX's ownership. Sound believable? But since Mars mission or colony simulations seem mainly to fall apart due to personnel conflicts, it's worth noting that so far, even the most rigorous selection and training programs for astronauts seem to fall short of what would be needed to staff a Mars mission:

Lisa Marie Nowak (née Caputo, born May 10, 1963) is an American aeronautical engineer, convicted criminal, and former NASA astronaut and United States Navy officer. Nowak served as naval flight officer and test pilot in the Navy, and was selected by NASA for NASA Astronaut Group 16 in 1996. . . . In 2007, Nowak was involved in a highly publicized incident of criminal misconduct for which she eventually pled guilty to felony burglary and misdemeanor battery charges, resulting in her demotion from captain to commander, and termination by NASA and the Navy.

Her termination followed an extramarital affair with a second astronaut, something NASA culture has been unable to prevent despite adultery being a criminal offense in the US armed forces. What on earth can anyone do to prevent this sort of hanky-pank on a months-long flight to Mars, let alone in a colony staying for years? And if NASA can't prevent it, how can SpaceX?

There's more frivolity in outer space than just the aliens, and Elon Musk is hardly immune.

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Bud Light, Marianne Williamson, And The McGovern Dilemma

Maybe it's my age, but in recent days I keep returning to the 1970s, rereading Tom Wolfe's "The Me Decade", thinking about the implications of the 1972 election, suddenly realizing that the Teixeira leaks are nothing but a reprise of the Pentagon Papers, and musing that this all carries lessons for the Bud Light fiasco. What brought me to focus on this was remarks by Marianne Williamson, a member of my 1970s demographic, that President Joe Biden “hasn’t done enough” for working-class Americans. She spoke at a restaurant in Dover, NH:

“Now, I am a Democrat. I am a Roosevelt Democrat. I believe that the Democratic Party should stand for unequivocal advocacy for the working people of the United States,” she went on to tell the restaurant.

“In order for us to win in 2024 and in order for us to repair this country, we have to be willing … to cut the cord with the last 50 years of history, we have to be willing to begin a new era,” Williamson said.

It's hard to determine what Ms Williamson means by cutting the cord with the last 50 years of history, but I would actually trace some part of the problem to the 1972 presidential election, in which the Democrats nominated George McGovern to run on a platform essentially the same as the one they've run on in most elections since, but in the process publicly lost the support of George Meany, president of the AFL-CIO, over McGovern's opposition to the Viet Nam War.

This in turn became a more general paradigm for the Democrat Party's loss of support from the working class over what Ms Williamson calls the last 50 years of history, and it's hard to think the 1972 election wasn't somewhere in the back of her mind when she said this. And she explicitly calls herself a Roosevelt Democrat, which can only refer to the New Deal alliance of the working class with the Ivy League-prep school upper class embodied in figures like Averell Harriman and Roosevelt himself.

Ms Williamson, however, is more a creature of the Me Decade than the New Deal, prep school, the Ivy League, or the working class, having bypassed the upper-class rites of adultood to do drugs and lead a New Age church. Me Decade types in fact have far less commitment to either party, being essentially hedonistic and narcissistic, which probably is what links them to the current gentry, who fancy theselves more or less non-partisan. This brings us to Bud Light. Brendan Whitworth, the CEO of Budweiser, is a registered Republican. Donald Trump Jr defended Budweiser fior donating slightly more to Republicans than Democrats.

Indeed, Alissa Heinerscheid, who approved Bud Light's partnership with Dylan Mulvaney, could easily be Ms Williamson's granddaughter; the loyalty of both is to their affluent bobo lifestyle, not to any solidarity with the working class. It was Mr Whitworth, the registered Republican (although of the CIA and Harvard Business School faction of Republicans) who belatedly acknowledged that "Anheuser-Busch employs more than 18,000 people and our independent distributors employ an additional 47,000 valued colleagues." Thus Trump fils complains that hurting Bud Light hurts Republicans, while Mr Whitworth adds that hurting Bud Light by the way also hurts the working class, or at least that part of the working class that sells Bud Lignt.

Neither Ms Williamson nor Ms Heinerscheid was available for comment. The working class is not in their wheelhouse.

The Statement Mr Whitworth released on Friday, and the subsequent new "spirit of America" Clydesdale ad, is an attempt to press the reset button back to bland without acknowledging the blunder. As this writer put it,

While [Trump Jr] might want the boycott to end, it looks like a large chunk of people have no interest in doing that, and this video is not going to fix the situation. All of a sudden playing on patriotism isn’t going to fix this problem. Anheuser-Busch still has a long way to go to fix this PR nightmare. It might eventually happen, but this isn’t the fix they’re looking for.

Ms Williamson has essentially the same approach. At her New Hampshire appearance, after paying lip service to the working class, she went on,

“There is no reason why we in this country do not have universal health care, do not have a guaranteed livable wage, do not have free college tuition, do not have paid family leave, and do not have guaranteed sick pay.”

She also hit Biden for not being radical enough on climate change. Specifically, Williamson criticized his administration’s approval of a “$39 billion-dollar project to export liquified natural gas from Alaska,” arguing that “this is at a time when scientists are telling us that we absolutely must be ramping down, not ramping up, fossil fuel extraction.”

Issues like climate change and free college are for the one percent and the college-educated gentry, not the working class, who are fully aware that their taxes will pay for the gentry's kids' college, and electric cars and trucks will make it more expensive for them to get to work. Appeals to McGovern-era Democrat chestnuts won't work any better than appeals to patriotism to make people forget the corporate elites are catering to the latest trans darlings of the rich.

But at least Ms Williamson is saying words that reflect we're still in the 1970s, like it or not.

Monday, April 17, 2023

What About Ukraine?

The two intelligence experts I quoted yesterday (if that's what they are) are in agreement that the documents in the Teixeira leaks are valid, and they suggest an imminent reassessment of Western policy. But the overall context of the war had begun to convince me that there was going to have to be a reassessment whether secret documents were released or not. An expected winter counteroffensive didn't take place, while the consensus now is that the spring counteroffensive has been delayed.

Here is a CNN assessment from last Friday of what the Teixeira documents say about the Ukraine war. It's worth noting that the US right has been opposed to the war from the start, while CNN, aligned with the left, has up to now supported it. Somne of the documents

divulge key weaknesses in Ukrainian weaponry, air defense, and battalion sizes and readiness at a critical point in the war, as Ukrainian forces gear up to launch a counteroffensive against the Russians – and just as the US and Ukraine have begun to develop a more mutually trusting relationship over intelligence-sharing.

. . . Yet another document describes, in remarkable detail, a conversation between two senior South Korean national security officials about concerns by the country’s National Security Council over a US request for ammunition.

The officials worried that supplying the ammunition, which the US would then send to Ukraine, would violate South Korea’s policy of not supplying lethal aid to countries at war. According to the document, one of the officials then suggested a way of getting around the policy without actually changing it – by selling the ammunition to Poland.

The problem of ammunition is troubling. This story goes into more detail on current Ukrainian weaknesses, agaain based on the Teixeira documents:

The planned Ukrainian late Spring offensive could be a death trap for the US, NATO and even America’s Asian allies.

A brigade is normally between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers. Using the higher number, Ukraine is planning to commit 60,000 troops in the counteroffensive, focused on an effort to break Russia’s control over Black Sea ports other than Sevastopol.

However, it is likely Ukraine will launch some sort of simultaneous attack on Crimea and Sevastopol, if it can.

. . . The planned counteroffensive, despite US and NATO support, faces some significant obstacles. The nine US-NATO-equipped brigades have less armor than promised by NATO.

. . . maintaining a gaggle of dissimilar equipment will not be easy and field repairs will be next to impossible. This will pose a significant challenge to the Ukrainians, who also will have no equipment reserves to replace what may be lost in battle.

. . . The lack of ammunition is also a major problem to support the promised offensive, even to continue the war itself.

Consider for example ammunition for artillery. The US has supplied 155mm howitzers, mostly with high explosive shells. The M-777 howitzer has a range of around 21 kilometers (13 miles). By now, Ukraine has fired off nearly 1 million 155mm shells, a huge amount.

According to the Pentagon report, there are none in the pipeline right now. While some additional thousands may be found, given the huge rate of expenditure by the Ukrainian army, it is hard to see how the 155mm will help very much in the planned offensive (assuming these artillery pieces survive Russian airstrikes, a big assumption).

The Federalist, aligned with opposition to the war from the right, draws similar conclusions from the Teixeira leaks:

What the documents also suggest, as if it hasn’t become obvious by now, is that the war has not been an unbroken chain of brilliant underdog battlefield victories for Ukraine and crushing defeats for Russia, as the corporate media and the Washington political establishment have led us to believe.

. . . One of the results of this slow, grinding warfare has been the rapid expenditure of munitions, at least on the Ukrainian side. U.S. weapons stockpiles are now badly depleted, and our defense industrial base is taxed to the point that we have been unable to deliver some $20 billion in promised military supplies to Taiwan. This of course raises the question of China, which the Biden administration, along with Republican leaders in Congress, refuse to talk about candidly in the context of the Ukraine war.

. . . From where the situation stands now, it seems like the U.S. taxpayer has unwittingly bought nothing more than a bloody stalemate in Ukraine, one that increasingly runs a very real risk of ending in a nuclear showdown. Absent a hard push from Washington for peace negotiations — the one thing our leaders seem unwilling even to consider — we’re left with bad options all around: escalation and inevitable U.S. involvement on the one hand, or total abandonment of Ukraine on the other.

Let's recall that Zelensky's argument a year ago for Western support in a war against Russia was that it would be a bargain -- Ukraine would do all the fighting with maybe just leftover Warsaw Pact weapons, and the Russian empire would quickly collapse. Up to last fall, that was a sustainable argument, burt after partial success in the Donbas, the string of underdog battlefield victories stopped, the winter counteroffensive never happened, and the attritional battle in Bakhmut appears to have depleted Western weapons to the point that there may no longer be aa credible deterrent to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

And last year I noted that Zelensky himself looked like a wartime leader at the Lincoln or Churchill level -- but Lincoln and Churchill were able to make their cases over periods of years, until battlefield success supported their calls for resoluteness and sacrifice. Zelensky, again after last fall, has been much more quiet, while the prospect of quick Ukrainian success, for instance in recapturing Crimea, appears less and less likely.

And of course, Joe Biden seems more and more detached from his job, willing to let his various surrogates push for their own programs as long as he doesn't have to work very hard. There will need to be stronger leadership than this over the next year to avoid an endless and hugely expensive stalemate, which is what Zelensky in particular promised we wouldn't have.