Thursday, October 31, 2024

Trump Puts On A Hi-Vis Vest

I don't think we've seen a presidential politician with a visual instinct like Trump's since either Roosevelt, and that includes Reagan. The harumphs from the corporate media have been non-stop, George Takei, Star Trek has-been, said, “In fairness, it’s not really a Trump garbage truck until it’s on fire.” Rolling Stone's headline was, "Bizarre: Billionaire Trump Awkwardly Dresses Up as a Garbage Truck Driver". Newsweek says, "Video of Donald Trump 'Struggling' to Enter Garbage Truck Goes Viral". CNN said,

Donald Trump broke out the props Wednesday in the final days of this chaotic campaign as the former president seized on a garbled remark by President Joe Biden that seemed to insult Trump voters as “garbage.”

Trump emerged from his plane ahead of a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, wearing a bright orange and yellow safety vest before climbing into a garbage truck – with a big “TRUMP” sign emblazoned on the side – to take questions from reporters.

. . . Still wearing the safety vest, Trump opened his Green Bay rally – one of his final chances to address Wisconsin voters before next week’s election – by speaking at length about the props. He praised his “very capable people” for getting it all together so quickly and then recapped their discussion beforehand.

“One of my people came in and said, ‘Sir, you know the word ‘garbage’ is the hottest thing right now. Out there, the hottest thing out there. Sir, would you like to drive a garbage truck?” Trump said. “They pulled up this garbage truck. I don’t know how the hell they did it so fast. I have very capable people. They put a big sign on the truck. Did you see it?”

I have a feeling Trump is minimizing his own role in the stunt here. Two weeks ago, I thought he couldn't possibly outdo the imagery from his McDonald's gig, but all of a sudden, he's done it. Before that, I marveled at how the image of his fist in the air under the flag at the Butler rally evoked the famous Iwo Jima flag photo, while the shot of the Secret Service agents helping him down from the stage there somehow brought Michelangelo's Pieta to mind.

This reflects Trump's instinctive ability to suck all the air out of public debate. His detractors call it narcissism, but the problem with that is that narcissists are phony, and many people instincively respond to phony. It's hard to find insightful disccussion of Trump's authenticity, but here's a take from a UK writer, Gunn Enli:

Trump’s perceived authenticity, a rarity in the polished realm of politics, has been a cornerstone of his unexpected 2016 triumph and remains a potent force as he positions himself at the forefront of the upcoming race. But what underpins this connection with voters, and why is it problematic for the health of our democracy?

At the heart of Trump’s relationship with his base is a performance that has been meticulously crafted to exhibit traits which are valued by his supporters: consistency, spontaneity, ordinariness, outspokenness, and outsider status.

. . . This strategic performance of authenticity is not without its perils. The problem arises when authenticity is conflated with virtue. Being perceived as authentic gives Trump a troubling latitude to engage in behavior and rhetoric that, under traditional scrutiny, would be considered unacceptable or even reprehensible. His ‘authentic’ persona allows him to navigate past scandals and missteps with an ease not afforded to traditional politicians.

Enli then worries that if his authenticity gives Trump a free pass to violate social boundaries, he might turn into Hitler, or something like that. I think there are key reasons why this won't happen. The first is that Trump has a sense of humor, even a self-deprecating one, when for instance he said he'd continue to wear the vest because it made him look slimmer. This isn't Hitler. Nazis didn't have a sense of humor.

The second is that Trump is a truthteller. By their nature, truthtellers violate boundaries. This is Groucho Marx's secret, and it's worth pointing out that Trump has a Hollywood sense of the visual and a comic's sense of timing. Like Marx, Trump often sneaks the truthtelling past the boundaries by dressing it up as humor.

The conventionally minded are having a difficult time wrapping their minds around the election outcome as things stand. Nobody seems to know quite what to do about Trump in a hi-vis vest -- Trump in a McDonald's apron was bad enough.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

No One's Mentioning This In Corporate Media

Politico has a piece from yesterday that I can only call wishful thinking:

Kamala Harris is counting on suburban voters to do what they’ve done since Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016: reject him.

It may be the single most important piece of her electoral math. While Donald Trump has made inroads with Black and Latino men, polls in the late stage of the election show the suburbs could still power her to victory. The latest Wall Street Journal poll found Harris leading among suburban voters by 7 percentage points, while a Reuters/Ipsos analysis showed the vice president winning suburban households by 6 points.

. . . Inside the Harris campaign, aides said they believe they will improve on President Joe Biden’s performance with suburban voters in 2020, driven by college-educated voters and women who are turned off by the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and by the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Another piece there from yesterday claims this is in fact paying off:

There’s a new kind of gender gap in the 2024 election: Women are voting early in huge numbers, far outpacing men.

It’s giving anxious Democrats — who see female voters as key to a Kamala Harris victory — newfound hope heading into the final week of the campaign.

. . . It’s impossible to know who these women are voting for, including whether Democrats are winning over unaffiliated or moderate Republican women disillusioned with former President Donald Trump. But the gender gap has been one of the defining features of the 2024 campaign, and Harris allies see the lack of a surge of male voters as an encouraging sign.

Here's the problem I see. Reports from the field, especially Pennsylvania, indicate that there are hours-long lines for early voting -- but local government operatives are trying to get people to leave before they vote. Farther down in the thread, a post noted that if people are in line before 8 PM, they're entitled to cast their votes. Elsewhere in suburban Bucks County, we see this: Levittown is quintessentially suburban -- if the suburbanites waiting in line for hours to vote are there to support Kamala, as Politico claims they are, wouldn't the polling staff want to give them every chance to vote, sooner rathee than later? Elsewhere in suburban Bucks County, we see this: So operatives who aren't even election officials are trying to look like they are, and they're telling Bucks County suburbanites to go home and come back later, although as long as the voters are in line by 8 PM, they can cast their votes. As of this morning,

The Trump-Vance campaign has filed a lawsuit against Bucks County, Pennsylvania, accusing county election officials of obstructing GOP voters from participating in on-demand mail-in voting.

Speaking at a packed rally in Allentown, RNC Chair Michael Whatley emphasized the historic momentum of Republican voters across the state and blasted Bucks County officials for attempting to halt the red wave sweeping Pennsylvania.

“Now, I know that a lot of you today have seen these videos of people being turned away at the polls in places like Delaware County and Bucks County. And last night, we even saw one of our great local leaders, Val Biancaniello, arrested at the polls for telling people to stay in line. All she was doing was telling folks, ‘Stay and vote.’ They took her away in handcuffs,” Whatley said during the rally.

“Folks, here’s what’s happening: Democrat election officials are seeing our numbers. They’re seeing our turnout. They are seeing us breaking early vote records across Pennsylvania. They are terrified, and they want to stop our momentum. We are not going to let them suppress our votes. We are going to fight.

Lancaster County, which is rural Amish country and more traditionally Republican, also had long lines for early voting:

Voters attempting to vote early at the Lancaster County Elections office were met by lines that stretched out the door and out onto the sidewalk earlier this week.

Tuesday was the last day to apply for a mail-in ballot and take advantage of Pennsylvania’s version of early in-person voting for this year’s presidential election. Voters from across Lancaster county – many voting early for the first time – attempted to cast their ballot through an unfamiliar process.

. . . Her story was not uncommon among the voters gathered at the elections office Monday and Tuesday for early voting. Many had never done in-person early voting and were pushed toward this method by circumstances or a distrust of mail-in voting.

The post below is from a voter in Pittsburgh suburb Bethel Park, where again there are hours-long lines waiting to vote early. In this case, busloads of Spanish-speaking voters were escorted past the lines to vote ahead of the others, apparently faciolitated by poll workers -- but if the Harris campaign believes college-educated suburban women are going to tip the balance, why interfere with them this way? This all has my contrarian instincts tingling.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

If The Election Is So Close, Why Is The Smart Money Acting As If It Isn't?

Attribute whatever motive you want to Jeff Bezos, for instance:

ex washington post editor: “Trump waited to make sure that Bezos did what he said he was going to do, and then met with the Blue Origin people,” he said on Saturday. “Which tells us that there was an actual deal made."

The implication is that Bezos offered to squash a potential Washington Post endorsement of Harris in return for giving Bezos's Blue Origin favorable treatment for contracts in an upcoming Trump administration. Let's accept this -- Bezos has never had Rockefeller-level PR -- but then, let's also grant him the cupidinous instincts this implies.

Why would Bezos see the point in making this deal? If the election were flip-a-coin close, which among other things might imply that a WaPo endorsement could tip it to Kamala, why change course? I think a reasonable conclusion is that insiders seem to think it's not close at all. Here's the headline at CEO Today: Trump’s VIP Tech List: CEOs Scramble to Suck Up to the Ex-President!

In a series of recent statements, Trump asserts that several tech CEOs are actively reaching out to him. Prominent figures like Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, and Mark Zuckerberg, head of Meta, have faced criticism from Trump in the past, particularly regarding what he perceives as the suppression of conservative voices on their platforms. Yet, as the polls tighten in the race against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump claims these leaders are becoming more favorable toward him, aligning their interests with the possibility of a Trump victory.

According to reports from the Washington Post, influential business leaders are adopting a cautious approach, potentially recognizing the implications of Trump’s return to power. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made his support for Trump explicit, contributing financially to his campaign.

The link goes into more derail on Bezos's business interests as they relate to Trump:

Former Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has recently faced scrutiny for the Washington Post’s decision to refrain from endorsing presidential candidates, which Trump criticized. According to Trump, Bezos called him after the assassination attempt, expressing amazement at the unfolding events. Trump noted, “Despite the fact you own the Washington Post, I appreciate it.” Bezos' connection to government contracts, particularly through Amazon Web Services and Blue Origin, adds another layer of complexity to his relationship with Trump.

A Trump presidency could lead to significant changes in how Amazon operates, particularly regarding government contracts. Historically, Trump has leveraged federal contracts as a tool for both rewarding and punishing companies based on their alignment with his administration’s agenda. If Trump were to regain office, Amazon might find itself navigating a landscape with more direct ties to the federal government, influencing everything from regulations to contract awards. Additionally, Trump’s focus on domestic manufacturing could pressure Amazon to adjust its logistics and supply chain strategies to prioritize U.S.-based operations.

Again, if the election were the tossup we're being told it is, why would people like Zuckerberg, mentioned here, Bezos, or Warren Buffett, via Business Insider, suddenly be hedging their bets?

Warren Buffett has not endorsed Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, and made it clear this week he will not publicly back either presidential candidate.

. . . The Berkshire CEO's reticence may seem surprising as he's previously thrown his weight behind Democratic presidential candidates. He organized fundraisers for Barack Obama in 2011 and stumped for Hillary Clinton in 2016, even walking on stage at a rally to hammer Donald Trump over his bankrupt businesses, reluctance to publish his tax returns, and rude treatment of others.

Yet the 94-year-old billionaire explained why he's now keeping his mouth shut during Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting in 2022. Buffett said he'd learned that "you can make a whole lot more people sustainably mad than you can make temporarily happy by speaking out on any subject."

Translation: Buffett doesn't want to make Trump sustainably mad at him, when it's not worth making Harris temporarily happy, because it's certain Trump will win on November 5, and she will lose. His BNSF Railway won big when Biden canceled the Keystone XL Pipeline, because it meant oil shipments from Canada would continue to come by rail. It was to his advantage to support Biden early in 2020; now he needs to appease Trump early in 2024, because he needs to control the damage when Trump reverses this policy.

Yet the Wall Street Journal, thought to be the organ of plutocracy, still feigns obtuseness:

A week from the election, we have bipartisan consensus on two points regarding Pennsylvania.

The first is that the presidential contest is way too close to call. The second is that only one contender has coattails. Both candidates for Senate—Republican challenger Dave McCormick and Democratic incumbent Bob Casey—agree on who that is: Donald Trump.

If the election were really "way too close to call", why is Casey acting as though Trump is going to win? Now we even have Alan Dershowitz saying he can't vote for Harris:
Like everyone else here, he won't say he's voting for Trump, but if he;'s saying he won't vote for Harris, that's the same thing. I think he's too smart to throw his vote away by voting for Jill Stein.

November 5 isn't going to be cloae at all.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Did Kamala Pay Lizzo And Beyonce For Their Appearances?

A recent feature of the Harris campaign has been the disappointing appeaarances of celebrities Lizzo (in Detroit October 19) and Beyonce (in Houston October 25) to endorse Kamala. Lizzo spoke, at least according to YouTube clips, for about seven minutes, notably claiming that if Kamala wins, the whole country will be like Detroit, but didn't perform. This also happened with Beyonce at the Houston rally:

Beyoncé fans were left furious after the singer failed to perform at a Texas rally for Kamala Harris.

The star took to the stage in her native Houston to endorse the Vice President on Friday night.

Some fans had waited more than 12 hours before packing into the city's Shell Energy Stadium expecting a performance, after rumors she would sing swirled online and the Washington Post reported on her expected appearance.

The singer appeared to come tantalizingly close to delighting the crowds when she began to talk about how it is time for America to 'sing a new song'.

However, rallygoers were ultimately left disappointed when the 'Single Ladies' hitmaker made a brief appearance in which she said she was not there as a celebrity, but as a mother.

Typical reaction was Slugga: The Beyoncé bait and switch is the most Kamala thing ever. But this left observers with a nagging question: had the Harris campaign paid Lizzo and Beyonce for their appearances, even though they didn't perform? The fact checkers were on the case, at least as far as Lizzo was concerned:

In person, attendees applauded Lizzo’s brief speech. Online, some social media users said Lizzo’s support cost the campaign a pretty penny.

"BREAKING: Lizzo charged the Harris-Walz campaign $2.3 million for a single appearance at a Detroit rally," read an Oct. 22 post by an X user whose account is affiliated with a conservative account, @ConservativeOG.

Other Republicans shared this claim on X, including Sean Spicer, onetime press secretary to former President Donald Trump and an account. "You have to be pretty desperate to pay @lizzo to appear at a rally," Spicer wrote when he reshared the $2.3 million claim on X Oct. 22.

. . . We found no evidence that Lizzo was paid to make those remarks. The Harris campaign confirmed to PolitiFact that the posts’ claims are untrue.

We searched using Google and Nexis, a news database, and we found no credible news reports or other indications that the Harris-Walz campaign paid Lizzo for her appearance at the Harris event or her endorsement.

Similar questions have come up over the Beyonce appearance: So far, there's been no official fact check of these claims, but frankly, they have the ring of truth. Celebrities at that level see value in their names alone. I would imagine that their agents must be involved in any potential use of their names, and they aren't going to give this valuable asset away to anyone, fashion brand, breakfast cereal, or political candidate -- and even if the celebrities wanted to give away their endorsement for free, their agents wouldn't allow it.

So why was there no performance if the campaign paid them so much just to show up? I would assume that if either were going to perform, there'd be multimillions more involved, band, backup singers, stage sets, lighting, and so forth, and this would be for a free concert. People who buy tickets pay for this:

The prices for standard tickets to Beyoncé's concerts from StubHub start at approximately $102 on the lower end to nearly $400, depending on the venue. Vivid Seats offers similar price ranges for standard Renaissance World Tour tickets, ranging from about $100 in Las Vegas to $375 in Houston.

Beyonce performed at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Aug. 11-12, 2023 which had an attendance of 156,000 fans. It took in $39.8 million. These numbers would be beyond the capability of the Harris campaign to hold a "free" concert, and her agents wouldn't allow the product to be cheapened for anything less.

How on earth would anyone think they could get into a concert that normally costs $1-400 for free? What does it say about the Harris campaign that they'd even try to bamboozle the crowd this way?

What this does say about the Harris campaign is that it almost certainly had to pay big bucks for even a short segment of Beyonce's time and the use of her name, and it could only try to get away with a vague suggestion that anyopne who attended would get something more.

Did any of this pay off? According to Newsweek,

Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have worsened over the past 24 hours, according to a leading bookmaker.

On Friday, Betfair offered odds of 6/4 (40 percent) on Harris achieving victory on November 5, compared to 4/6 (60 percent) for former President Donald Trump. As of Saturday morning, Harris' odds had lengthened to 8/5 (38 percent), while Trump saw his odds cut to 5/8 (61 percent)—suggesting that those placing bets didn't think Harris' rally with Beyoncé on Friday gave her an immediate boost.

. . . Speaking to Newsweek about the change in odds, Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "Despite Harris' chances improving slightly this week after her Obama and Springsteen rally on Thursday, punters appear unconvinced by her A-list backers.

"And Harris' hopes that Beyoncé might help her run the world appear dashed, too, after the megastar's appearance at a Democrat rally in Houston failed to move the needle in her favor."

So this was a Hail Mary, or maybe more accurately, an attempt to pull off a Hail Mary on the cheap. It failed.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

The Proletarian-Middle Class Realignment

Let's continue down the road I started yesterday, a contrarian-revisionist reinterpretation of "Fabian socialism", which has been the consensus social democrat strategy in the West since the late 19th century. It is effectively a delaying strategy to appear to make concessions to the threat of class revolution, but the concessions, although expensive, are token, while they're made and financed by the middle class and upper proletariat (Paul Fussell's "high proles"), and the institutions of upper-class privilege remain untouched.

One feature of the Trump era is that key demographic groups are beginning to recognize that this strategy in fact doesn't work for them, even though it had been sold as to their benefit. For instance,

Barbara Clark is the perfect example of a voter—whether black, white, Hispanic, or from any other ethnic group—who defies stereotypes. This defiance often leads to voters such as her being overlooked as people who could change not just the presidential election, but also the majority in the Senate.

Clark is a black female who has been a registered Democrat for almost all of her adult life and voted for former President Barack Obama twice.

. . . “After we got Obama in the first time, and nothing happened, nothing changed, I said, ‘Whoa, what’s going on?’ And the local Democrats told me, ‘They won’t let him,’” Clark explained.

. . . “My answer to them was, I said, ‘Well, he’s got to step up and say, “I’m the president.”’ But nothing changed in our community,” she added.

This is echoed in a recent essay by Amity Shlaes, We Are Living In Lyndon Johnson's America:

Counterintuitive as it is to recall, the riots that ripped up Los Angeles and Detroit in the Johnson years [1965-67] came after passage of Johnson’s two great civil-rights laws, not before. As [aide Joseph] Califano reports, the Watts riots so distressed Johnson that he chose to disappear for more than twenty-four hours, an eternity for a chief executive.

. . . Rather than consider the possibility that African Americans were saying they needed something beyond more federal laws, Johnson, upon his return, simply passed further measures, including the Model Cities program, another Washington try at bettering the life of cities’ middle classes and the urban poor.

In short, these experiments were not experiments in the true sense, for they lacked science and accountability. They were actually plays, or Hail Marys, or political forays.

In other words, Johnson's Great Society legislation wasn't so much an effort to address the actual problems of civil rights and poverty as it was to create an impression that something was being done, when on one hand, it wasn't, but on the other, the huge and feckless expense would be borne by middle-and working-class taxpayers in the form of increased taxes and inflation. Shlaes continues,

While in office, Johnson, all politician, never . . . . took time to parse the downside of welfare-state expansion, or to consider that inflation caused by his spending might ravage paychecks. He did not consider that basing American immigration policy on compassion rather than logic or trade-offs would make it difficult for future lawmakers to control the nation’s borders. He did not ponder what increasing longevity would do to the fiscal outlook of his most beloved program, Medicare. In 1966 or 1967, he was too busy to think about all that.

. . . Though a failure of Johnson’s great military buildup in Vietnam is usually offered as the reason he did not choose to run again in 1968, one suspects that an eagerness to avoid seeing the ugly outputs, the results of his domestic work, played a role.

But Shlaes, at least here, doesn't cover Johnson's shift from Southern-state segregationist as Senate Majority Leader to ally of Dr King as president. This is the Johnson who is reported to have said in 1963,

These Negroes, they're getting pretty uppity these days and that's a problem for us since they've got something now they never had before, the political pull to back up their uppityness. Now we've got to do something about this, we've got to give them a little something, just enough to quiet them down, not enough to make a difference. . . I'll have them n****** voting Democratic for the next two hundred years.

This suggests that Johnson's legislative moves weren't made with a pure heart or the best of intentions; his aim wasn't to fix the race issue, it was to "give them a little something", which would in reality be paid out in riots that set the community back for decades.

What we're seeing in the current election season is a growing alignment between all members of the non-college educated middle class against an alliance of the college-educated and the traditionally privileged. It's explained in tis NPR interview:

Well, we're talking about the education line, and whether or not you have a college degree seems to be one of the biggest predictors of how you're going to vote. If you have a college degree, more likely than not, you're voting Democratic. If you don't, more likely than not now, you're voting Republican. And that's a pretty big shift from what we had seen, you know, in the 1980s or '90s, even the early 2000s.

This brings us back to a less-acknowledged feature of the Fabian socialist project, the widening of access to college education. This is coered from different perspectives in David Brooks's Bobos in Paradise and Alan Dershowitz's Chutzpah. Brooks feels that the post-World War II GI Bill and the introduction of the Scholastic Aptitude Test created a genune meritocracy that in particular allowed Jews to compete for upper-middle-class jobs.

Dershowitz has a much more realistic view that the universities simply disguised their existing Jewish quotas under "diversity" criteria while continuing to give admissions preference to legacies, which simply perpetuated the old upper-class privilege. The middle-class applicants who won the admissions lottery were flattered into believing they'd gotten in on merit, so they enthusiastically supported the new regime, while the legacies, admitted the same old way as their forebears, could hitchhike on the prestige of those admitted on grades and SAT scores.

The problem is in the Trump era, the value of a college degree is declining. Once I switched my own career to tech, I found that the de facto qualifications for most IT jobs did not require a four-year degree, and many of my colleagues didn't have one. But if anything, the snobbery associated with a college degree has only increased, so that there's now an alliance between the newly respectable alumni of elite schools -- David Brooks is a perfect example -- and the legacies.

But again, the aspiring upper middle class that participates in the college admissions rat race finances this putative concession themselves, in the steadily increasing cost of the degree, financed by increasingly burdensome student loans. The legacies don't have this problem.

So what we're seeing incresingly is a recognition amonmg a growing segment of the electorate that the Fabian socialist project is a con -- in fact, an expensive con tha's financed by the people it's supposed to benefit. This is a good part of the basis for Trump's cuirrent success.

What's happening is on one hand a growing recognition of Ferdinand Lundberg's insight that I cited yesterday -- US society does at basis resemble a Latin American structure of a large population of peasants supporting a privileged ownership class -- but a relatively recent twist is that a segment of the peasants have been bamboozled into believing their interests correspond with the interests of the owners. But this is just another part of the Fabian socialist con.

Saturday, October 26, 2024

WaPo And The LA Times: He Who Has The Gold Makes The Rules

In Ferdinand Lundberg, The Rich and the Super-Rich (1969):

Those few newspapers that make a practice of printing foreign news occasionally survey Latin American countries. The writers are invariably grieved to find a small oligarchy of big landowners in control, with the remainder of the population consisting of sycophantic hangers-on and landless, poverty-stricken peasants. But I have never seen it remarked that the basic description, with the alteration of a few nouns, applies just as well to the United States, where the position of the landowners is occupied by the financiers, industrialists and big rentiers and that of the peasants by the low-paid employees (all subject to dismissal for one reason or other just like the peasants).

If anyone in the past few days seeks vindication of Ferdinand Lundberg's views, he need look no farther than the events surrounding the decisions by the once-totemic Los Angeles Times and Washington Post not to endorse a presidentiual candidate in this year's election, which amount to an effective endorsement of Donald Trump. And as I covered Thursday, the wealthy plutocrat who owns the LA Times overrode the paper's editorial board in this matter, as did Jeff Bezos, the plutocrat who owns the Washington Post.

These events come in context, though. As I pointed out in Thursday's post, the influential and plutocratic Chandler family, whose fortune had been behind the LA Times, disinvested from the losing business a generation ago. The Graham family, which had owned the Post since 1933, sold the paper as a losing enterprise to Jeff Bezos in 2013. On one hand, the mere fact that the papers continued to be owned by Lundberg's class of financiers, industrialists, and big rentiers is nothng new, as he would be the first to point out.

On the other, the Chandlers and the Grahams both sold out simply to different financiers, industrialists, and big rentiers. Bezos in particular, although noted for highly aggressive business practices, has supported leftist politicians and causes:

According to public campaign finance records, Bezos supported the electoral campaigns of Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, two Democratic U.S. senators from Washington. He has also supported Democrats U.S. representative John Conyers, as well as Patrick Leahy and Republican Spencer Abraham, U.S. senators serving on committees dealing with Internet-related issues. Jeff Bezos and MacKenzie Bezos have supported the legalization of same-sex marriage, and in 2012 contributed $2.5 million to Washington United for Marriage, a group supporting a yes vote on Washington Referendum 74, which affirmed a same-sex marriage law enacted in the state.

Neither Bezos nor Patrick Soon-Shiong, the current owner of the LA Times, had previously interfered with the generally leftist editorial positions of either paper, and their refusals to allow their papers to endorse Harris has come as a surprise. We must assume that both Bezos and Soon-Shiong spent many millions to buy these papers, and they did it with their business interests in mind, even if, at least at the time of the purchases, the papers were losing money.

Did something change? Let's assume for starters that Lundberg's view of financiers, industrialists, and big rentiers is correct, and the nature of their interests hasn't changed. If that's the case, we can see that the social environment in which they operate also hasn't changed -- by and large, they're selling their products to the population of sycophantic hangers-on and de facto landless, poverty-stricken peasants, while their papers are at least seeking to manipulate the collective opinions of that same population.

Up to very recently, it was to the advantage of corporate media's owners to project an image of sympathy for leftist agendas, although especially in the case of Bezos, he tended to conduct his day-to-day business much more in the style of post-Civil War industrialist robber barons. Whatever the Post said editorially was neither here nor there, and indeed, his donations to liberal Democrats were mostly to keep them off his own case. But somehow, late in this election campaign, push came to shove for both Bezos and Soon-Shiong, and what their papers said editorially actually made a difference, to the extent that they overrode their editors, who apparently had forgotten they were only hired help on the plantation, and effectively dismssed them.

Let's keep in mind that modern public relations was developed by John D Rockefeller, who was notwithstaning never acknowleged for saving the whales, as a means of humanizing his public image. His son, John D Jr, devoted his own career to remaking the Rockefeller family image as benevolent and public-minded. This strategy was generally adopted by the descendants of all the robber baron families, and my surmise is that they saw this as a means of temporizing with the threat of world proletarian revolution -- give them a little, make it seem like a lot, and defer the worker soviets for a few more years.

This strategy was then modified by the great social theorist Charles Manson, who envisioned an apocalyptic race war. In effect, this gave the rentier descendants of the robber barons a whole new worry -- it wouldn't be just the proletariat, but the inner-city lumpenproles who'd rise up against them, which created a whole new set of interests to be paid off and temporized with.

This was the basis of the race grifts of the 1960s and 70s, which resulted in vast sums of public money being sent to inner-city programs with either no result or unintended consequences. In fact, much of this multitrillion-dollar transfer was simply passed through to Latin American drug cartels. The Black Lives Matter movement was little more than a last-ditch attempt to blackmail the public apparatus into maintaining this charade for a few more years.

I've run into a puzzle over the term "Fabian socialism", which is conventionally defined as "aiming at the gradual rather than revolutionary achievement of socialism". But why would the likes of George Bernard Shaw and the Webbs pattern their strategy after Fabius?

Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus (died 203 bce) was a Roman military commander and statesman whose cautious delaying tactics (whence the nickname “Cunctator,” meaning “delayer,” which was not his official cognomen) during the early stages of the Second Punic War (218–201 bce) gave Rome time to recover its strength. When Rome resumed the offensive against the invading Carthaginian army of Hannibal, Fabius waged a war of slow attrition, avoiding direct engagement whenever possible.

Wait a moment. A strategy of delay and attrition is a defensive strategy, not offensive. But Shaw and the Webbs were, at least ostensibly, promotimg an offensive strategy for implementing socialism. I think this gets things backward. The Victorian bourgeoisie were hardly revolutionaries, at least in a socio-political sense (what they did privately was their own business, and they sure did do it). If anything, we can characterize the strategy of the US post-Civil War industrialists and rentiers as gradually giving in to what they perceived as proletarian demands as a way to temporize while preserving their privilege.

I think this is a more accurate understanding of the "Fabian socialist" project -- it's primarily a way to maintain a privileged class while appearing to give in to potentially revolutionary demands without surrendering what's important. The problem with this model is that the concessions are made at the expense of the lower middle class, and indeed, one of the insights of current commentators like Mike Rowe is that this class is harder and harder to distingush from the proletariat.

Thus the Fabian model -- not the Fabian model of Shaw and the Webbs, but the Rockefeller-based model of gradual but unimportant concessions at the expense of the upper proletariat -- is collapsing, and a current, more avant-garde set of plutocrats including Trump, Musk, and Bezos has begun to see the need to rethink this social strategy.

Friday, October 25, 2024

The Return Of The Cheesy One

The Babylon Bee had a story a few days ago, Trump Campaign Raises Millions Overnight With New Donation Ask: 'How Much Would You Pay To Not Have To Listen To Kamala Talk The Next 4 Years?' I hope they would bundle that with an assurance that when Kamala leaves the public eye, she'll take Dougie with her.

Earlier this month, he was minimizing the allegation that he'd slapped a date in the valet line at the Cannes film festival:

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff dismissed scrutiny of his personal life during an interview on Friday, calling tabloid investigations into his past relationships and comments about Vice President Kamala Harris a “distraction.”

“We don’t have time to be pissed off, we don’t have time to focus on it,” Emhoff said in excerpts of an interview that will air in full Monday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “It’s all a distraction. It’s designed to try to get us off our game.”

Emhoff did not directly address allegations published by the Daily Mail earlier this month that he struck his then-girlfriend in public in 2012 — though the Harris campaign has denied the account in a statement to Semafor.

But it marked the first time he has acknowledged the effort by Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, to amplify unflattering stories about his and Harris’ respective past relationships.

“The stakes are too high, so all that other stuff you’re talking about bounces off,” Emhoff said, insisting he and Harris have not focused on the issue. “We’re not going to let it distract us.”

The New York Post added,

The second gentleman has never commented to the Daily Mail about the multi-sourced report — but an Emhoff spokesperson later called the slapping story “untrue” in a statement to Semafor.

Until Friday, MSNBC had not mentioned the alleged incident, even in passing. The alleged slap also hasn’t been covered by CBS News, ABC News, Time, Politico, the Washington Post, the New York Times, NPR, or the Associated Press, among other major outlets.

However, the link above is to a story in Politico, so Dougie's denials are actually amplifying the story. More recently, he's been campaigning as a person of Jewishness, or something like that, as a Kamala surrogate: However, according to the Forward, he first Mrs Emhoff wasn't Jewish, their children don't identify as Jews, and Dougie's own Jewish identity is apparently quite recent:

We knew it’d be a longshot to get [Emhoff's] increasingly in-demand — and also still enrolled in college — [daughter] Ella to join one of our Zoomversations with members of the Forward 50. But when the polite decline came, the reason threw me. “Ella is not Jewish,” wrote Joseph David Viola, the spokesman Ella’s Instagram refers queries to.

. . . Viola said in subsequent emails that Ella’s dad has been “celebrating Judaism for a few years now but out of an independent search,” and that Ella was living on her own in New York during this period. “It’s not something she grew up with,” he explained. “Ella truly has no qualms with the faith, but she does not want to speak on behalf of Judaism, as she does not celebrate herself.”

Nevertheless, according to CNN,

Vice President Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff on Friday will become the first known second family to host a Passover Seder at the vice president’s residence, a White House official says, a continuation of their efforts to celebrate Emhoff’s Jewish faith.

Harris told Israeli President Isaac Herzog during their phone call Thursday that she would hold a Seder in person at the Naval Observatory, according to a White House official.

But the distractions nevertheless continue. As of this morning,

Doug Emhoff's ex-girlfriend has spoken exclusively to DailyMail.com claiming that he slapped her in the face so hard she spun around at a 2012 celebrity event in France.

The woman, a successful New York attorney, is remaining anonymous, but decided to speak out after Emhoff, Kamala Harris's husband, denied the claims through a spokesman.

Emhoff's accuser, who DailyMail.com is naming only as 'Jane', initially declined to comment on the record. But Emhoff's denial, and his alleged hypocrisy by claiming to be a feminist in media interviews, finally became too much for her.

'What's frightening for a woman that's been on the other end of it, is watching this completely fabricated persona being portrayed,' Jane said.

'He's being held out to be the antithesis of who he actually is. And that is utterly shocking.'

And now he's an observant Jew who's gonna stand up to the anti-Semite Trump. Everything about this guy is phony.

Thursday, October 24, 2024

The Puppeteers Abandon Kamala

There are a couple of bellwether items in this morning's news. Most intriguing: Los Angeles Times editorials editor quits when owner won’t endorse Harris:

Los Angeles Times Editorials Editor Mariel Garza quit on Wednesday, weeks after the paper’s owner, Patrick Soon-Shiong, announced it would not endorse any candidate this cycle.

With Election Day two weeks away, Garza took issue with her employer shifting away from the tradition of endorsing presidential candidates. The paper has backed the Democratic candidate since 2008. The Los Angeles Times is the biggest newspaper in Vice President Kamala Harris’s home state of California and endorsed Harris when she ran for the Senate in 2016 and for the office of attorney general before that.

On one hand, this is not your grandfather's LA Times:

The news shook Southern California like an earthquake: Los Angeles Times, family owned for 118 years, was being sold to Chicago-based Tribune Co. . . . On March 11, there were three great American newspaper families: the Sulzbergers of the New York Times, the Grahams of the Washington Post and the Chandlers of Los Angeles's Times Mirror Co. A day later, there were two.

. . . The family patriarch, Gen. Harrison Otis, bought the newspaper in 1886. In the succeeding years, he and his son-in-law, Harry Chandler, bought most of Southern California -- at least the parts worth having. At the turn of the century, it was an Otis-Chandler syndicate that quietly purchased tens of thousands of acres of parched farmland in the San Fernando Valley, knowing that the fix was in to steal water rights from Owens Valley farmers 200 miles to the north.

As the Chandlers and their newspaper gained influence, every up-and-coming politician in the Southland made sure to kiss their ring. Richard Nixon owed his career to favorable notices in the Times. Harry's son, Norman, and his activist wife, Dorothy, transformed Los Angeles into a cultural mecca, creating the Los Angeles Music Center and luring world-class talent to play there. "No Easterner can understand what it has meant in California to be a Chandler," David Halberstam wrote in a famous run-on sentence from his media history, The Powers That Be, "for no single family dominates any major region of the country as the Chandlers have dominated California, it would take in the East a combination of the Rockefellers and the Sulzbergers to match their power and influence."

However, the LA Times was sold again in 2018:

The Los Angeles Times, the largest newspaper in California, is being sold by the news company Tronc to the pharmaceutical billionaire Patrick Soon-Shiong, The Washington Post reported.

. . . Soon-Shiong, who is 63, would also acquire The San Diego Union-Tribune in the deal, according to the Post.

Soon-Shiong, who was born in South Africa to parents of Chinese descent, is best known for his high-profile crusade to fight cancer by matching genetic drugs to particular tumors through a high-powered database. But he has recently expanded his assets to include management over seven hospitals, two public companies, and a stake of the Los Angeles Lakers, among other holdings.

Soon-Shiong has also been moving in political circles, having worked on a blue-ribbon panel for former Vice President Joe Biden’s “Cancer Moonshot.” After the election of President Donald Trump, Soon-Shiong was reportedly considered for multiple administration roles, including the head of the National Institutes of Health.

Not covered in either ownership story linked above is the political move of the Chandler family from Nixon Republican under Norman Chandler (1899-1973) to leftist Democrat under his widow, Dorothy (1901-1997). This reflected the general political realignment of the post-Civil War industrial family fortunes over the same period. Through their political donations, as well as their control of corporate media, philanthropy, and univeristy endowments, they reflected and drove the overall cultural move to the left.

In this, politicians, especially leftist Democrats and moderate Republicans, served largely as their puppets, and this formula succeeded until the advent of Trump on one hand and the failure of Biden as a puppet on the other. A major outcome of Trump's success as a politician has been to realign a new generation of influential wealth, such as Elon Musk, away from the traditional post-Civil War industrialist agenda. It should be no surprise that many members of the new elite, like Musk and Soon-Shiong, don't originally come from the US themselves.

If nothing else, Soon-Shiong isn't just limning the political postures of the Sulzbergers or the Grahams, and we can only surmise that the puppet politicians that were routinely controlled by the traditional media families no longer meet his own needs.

But another phenomenon late in this year's presidential campaign has been the effective abandonment of Harris by other corporate media outlets. This includes Fox, whose interview of Harris by Bret Baier had the effect the Murdochs had previously hoped to gain by having Megyn Kelly interview Trump in 2020 -- namely, effectiverly ending his campaign -- and now CNN: Anderson Cooper Gives Kamala Harris a Bruising CNN Town Hall:

Cooper asked Harris why she pledged to reintroduce the bipartisan border bill if she won in November, considering her past opposition to a border wall. The Democratic nominee replied, "I'm not afraid of good ideas where they occur."

The CNN host then said, "So you don't think it's stupid anymore?" Harris, referring to Trump, replied, "I think what he did and how he did it did not make much sense because he actually didn't do much of anything."

The Trump War Room, an account affiliated with Trump's presidential campaign, posted a clip of the exchange on X, formerly Twitter, where it received more than 250,000 views.

The account also posted another clip from the town hall, which has been viewed more than 220,000 times. In the video, Cooper asked Harris about "record border crossings" in 2022 and 2023 before President Joe Biden issued an executive order in June 2024 that placed limits on the number of asylum-seekers allowed across the U.S.-Mexico border.

The host questioned why the administration didn't issue such an order in previous years. Harris replied, "Because we were working with Congress and hoping that actually we could have a long-term fix to the problem instead of a short-term fix."

Kamla's problem is that even the friendliest media interviews, like the one on The View, can't make her look good. Instead, like Joe Biden, she's turning into a defective puppet, something the puppeteers just can't use, and they've discarded her.

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

It's Over

The big quote yesterday was from Mark Halperin:

Former President Donald Trump is on track to win the 2024 presidential race based on the early voting numbers trickling in, according to a longtime political journalist.

“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that’s a big if, we’ll almost certainly know before Election Day who’s going to win,” Mark Halperin, editor-in-chief of the 2WAY video platform, said Tuesday.

Halperin is an interesting case. He grew up in Bethesda as a member of the ruling class, although like me, he didn't go to Sidwell Friends (I went to B-CC; he went to Walt Whitman). He went on to Harvard and had a predictable career as a senior political analyst in corporate media, including ABC, NBC, MSNBC, and Showtime, but allegations of sexual harassment brought this to an end in 2017. As of the 2024 campaign, he seems to have worked hard to rehabilitate himself as the centrist honest broker among all the commentators, so he has a lot riding on this prediction. If he's right, he can probably get back into corporate media.

The headlines on Real Clear Poloitics are baleful: from Politico, The Clock Is Ticking on Kamala Harris:

Since her strong convention speech and superb debate performance, Harris has run out of what her campaign calls tentpole moments. She now needs to drive news in other ways. Appearing with Cheney is a way to do that, but it’s of limited utility if that’s the beginning and end of the messaging.

This remains a winnable race for Harris, but she’s getting hammered in television ads for being a liberal thanks to the far-left stances she took in her ill-fated presidential bid. If she says nothing to contradict that onslaught, voters will believe it. No matter how much she says Donald Trump is a bad man.

The clock is ticking.

But beauty is as beauty does. The conventional wisdom is she had a "superb debate performance", but the one memorable phrase from the debate was Trump's "they're eating the dogs and cats," and everything memorable since then has been Kamala fails. From The Hill:

There is growing fear in Democratic circles that the presidential race could be slipping further away from Vice President Harris.

To be sure, Democrats still think Harris can defeat former President Trump. The margins are so close in the seven battleground states likely to decide the contest, a shift toward either candidate or a mistake in the polling could be decisive.

. . . “Everyone keeps saying, ‘It’s close.’ Yes, it’s close, but are things trending our way? No. And no one wants to openly admit that,” one Democratic strategist said. “Could we still win? Maybe. Should anyone be even slightly optimistic right now? No.”

Every indication, which Halperin has picked up, is that the election isn't going to be close, especially if early voting means it could well be called before election day. But Ed Kilgore at New York Magazine is clinging to the verities:

It’s always possible the polls are all wrong and either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is on the brink of a decisive victory on November 5. For one thing, it’s close enough in the seven battleground states that either candidate could win all of them. But make no mistake: This apparently very close presidential election reflects a deeply divided electorate where the potential changes in either direction we all talk about constantly are glacial and arguably self-canceling.

. . . Very big differences in the direction of the country will flow from tiny shifts in one direction or another of a closely divided electorate. It’s why anxiety levels are so high right now among those paying avid attention to politics, even though the outcome may depend on “low-propensity voters” barely paying attention at all.

But "the polls" are changing daily. As of this morning, Harris's lead in the RCP average is at 1.1%, up slightly from Monday's 1.0%, but down roughly a point from the previous week. The rule-of-thumb calculation has been that the RCP average underestimates Trump's final peformance by about 3 points, which suggests, as numerous polls recently also do, that he will win both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

The Best Take On Trump's McDonald's Visit

From Phil Boas at the Arizona Republic:

This was supposed to be “Senile Sunday,” the day Harris and her surrogates made the case that Donald Trump is too old and mentally infirm to be president. They made the point repeatedly on the Sunday shows.

Kamala Harris even launched the day with an ad and this tweet:

“Donald Trump is exhausted, unstable, and unfit to be President of the United States.”

Other surrogates and campaign people picked up the theme and piled on.

Then the fry chef went to work in Bucks County, Pa.

The cook who was too old, too tired and too senile to be president took the entire contents of the freezer bag labeled “Democratic Party” and emptied it into his metal basket.

Then he deep fried it in hydrogenated vegetable fat.

Boas hints at the bigger context:

The whole thing was deliciously insane, bizarre in the way that America does bizarre.

It’s what the Democrats have never understood about Trump or the country.

America is weird.

And if you don’t understand what Trump did at McDonald’s and that it was a breakthrough in this campaign, then you don’t understand Trump or the country.

Corporate media is deeply puzzled that Trump isn't following the game plan they think he should at the end of the campaoign. Why on earth is he going to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden?

Donald Trump is reportedly fixated on hosting a rally at New York City’s famous Madison Square Garden arena, despite most political experts believing the Empire State and even Trump’s hometown of New York City are squarely in the blue column for 2024.

“I’m gonna fill the Garden,” he reportedly boased in recent days to a confidant, who spoke anonymously to The Bulwark.

The Trump ally added that the Republican “has just been obsessed with this for at least a year. This is his campaign. So it’s happening.”

The story is clearly convinced that this is yet another sign that he's unstable and unhinged, but it's doing its best to come up with charitable explanations:

One could simply be for hometown pride.

Trump, despite changing his legal residency to Florida in 2020, was born in New York City, and still derives part of his political appeal from his (often exaggerated) career as a New York real estate developer.

Another might be a combination of that pride plus the former president’s fondness for doing things people say he can’t.

“We just rented Madison Square Garden,” Trump said with evident glee last week at a rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania. “We’re going to make a play for New York.”

Sidney Blumenthal at The Guardian, for his part, is not looking for harmless explanations:

Trump’s climactic rally will not be in the spirit of any past presidential event ever held there. His gathering for the great racist replacement theory will be the culmination of his spiraling descent since the Charlottesville rally in 2017 when neo-Nazis chanted, “Jews will not replace us.” “Fine people on both sides,” Trump said then. Now, at his night at the Garden, Trump will revive the memory of the infamous American Nazi mass rally held there on 20 February 1939 through his reflected Hitlerian rhetoric.

. . . Trump has been inevitably drawn to the Garden, in the city that made and unmade him. He is irreversibly entrapped in his endless neurotic syndrome of desperately seeking approval there that he constantly repels and success he inexorably undermines, a cycle of failure, rejection and humiliation. He wants New York to love him unreservedly, but his relationship with the city has been one long unrequited romance. His true love affair has always and only been with himself.

In other words, he's unstable and unhinged. The thinking seems to be that the race is razor-thin, much too close to call, and Trump should be focusing on certain counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina, because that's what Kamala's doing. Renting Madison Square Garden is at best chasing a chimera, but much more likely, it's indulging grandiose Hitlerian delusions. But Blumenthal is clearly afraid that delusional or not, Trump might actually realize his nefarious vision:

Three years after FDR spoke at the Garden, another rally was held there, on 20 February 1939, under the sponsorship of the German American Bund, raising the slogan of “America First”, to advance the great replacement theory that Jews and other “inferior races” were displacing white Aryans. The Nazis claimed the mantle of true Americanism and Christian nationalism. Swastikas framed a gigantic portrait of George Washington as the backdrop to the stage.

. . . In 2019, a seven-minute documentary about the Nazi rally of 1939, A Night at the Garden, was nominated for an Academy Award. To promote it, a 30-second TV ad was produced with the tagline: “It Can Happen Here.” The line was a reference to Sinclair Lewis’s 1935 novel, It Can’t Happen Here, about a populist demagogue defeating FDR and imposing a fascist regime.

I think there's actually a deep understanding, although coupled with deep anger, jealousy, and resentment, at Trump's success in this year's campaign. People like Blumenethal understand quite well Trump's strategy at McDonald's and Madison Square Garden -- he's playing for the win. He's outperforming both his 2016 and 2020 record, after all. I don't think this is going to be close.

Monday, October 21, 2024

The Needle Is Moving

A week ago, I noted that the Real Clear Politics popular-vote polling average had Kamala with a 1.8% lead. Just this past Friday, I noted that her lead was down to 1.3%. As new polls were released over the weekend, it continued to fall, until by this morning, it's down to 1.0%.

On one hand, this is a lagging indicator, since the average includes old polls that haven't been updated. On the other, it includes polls that have proved highly inaccurate and biased toward Democrats in the past. But on top of that, a "national popular vote" average is Democrat-leaning, since it totals votes in high-population, Democrat-leaning states like New York and California, when the Electoral College is meant to limit big-state advantage in elections.

So far, I've seen basically no cogent commentary on what this decline in Kamala's popular vote averages means. However, it comes in the wake of the vice presidential debate Octobrr 1, her Call Her Daddy interview October 6, her 60 Miniutes interview October 7, ansd her Fox News interview with Bret Baier October 16, but before Trump's visit to a Bucks County, PA McDonald's yesterday. The size of the crowds out to see Trump makes me wonder if the polls are missing something important:

Because the RCP average is a lagging indicator, it doesn't fully reflect the trend in the most recent polls:

A new Fox News poll, conducted between October 11 and 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, showed that Trump is leading Harris by 2 points among registered and likely voters, on 50 percent to her 48 percent, which falls within the poll's margin of error, a 4-point swing from when Harris was leading Trump by 2 points a month ago.

Additionally. the latest ActiVote poll, conducted from October 3-8, showed Donald Trump holding a 1.2-point lead nationwide with a 3 percent margin of error. That came after a September poll from ActiVote had Kamala Harris ahead by 5.4 points.

Trump has also seen positive signs in the swing states. RealClearPolitics' poll tracker last week showed that Michigan had flipped in favor of Trump for the first time since July 29. Nevada and Pennsylvania have also gone Republican.

But neither of these polls was done in the wake of the Fox News Bret Baier interview. Nevertheless, The Hill reported today,

Former President Trump overtook Vice President Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast Sunday, the first time he has been deemed the favorite over her this cycle.

The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency, while Harris has a 48 percent chance, as of Sunday.

Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning between approximately 54 percent and 56 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.

On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage Oct. 20.

This represents a shift of as much as 8%, but the piece nevertheless concludes,

[T]he race remains a toss-up, according to the election forecast, since the polling in all seven states remains within the margin of error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could shift the results in either direction.

As of this morning, most respectable opinion is still withholding judgment on whether Kamala's October shift in strategy to do interviews has been effective. For instance, at The Guardian:

Once interview-shy VP plunged into podcast populism and interview with shock-jock Howard Stern after polls showed her slipping against Trump

First came “joy”, with some cosy but unmemorable TV sit-downs with sympathetic hosts, a Vogue cover, and a billion dollars to spend on TV ads. Then reality hit: Kamala Harris’ strategy to win over a mysterious sliver of undecided US voters was not working and she was slipping back in the polls.

So the vice president went on Fox News, part of a pitch to white working-class women, who voted for Trump more strongly in 2020 than 2016. It was a win for Fox’s news division – 7.8m viewers, or four times host Bret Baier’s nightly average – but was it a win for the Harris campaign?

Well, was it? All we get is a shrug:

But will any of it matter? There are no guarantees that undecided or unengaged voters today will be any less undecided in two-and-a-half weeks’ time.

It says a lot that the pundits are willing to say so little, when it's indisputable that the numbers are actually shifting. And especially in the past week or ten days, something's clearly changed.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

We Forgot 1968

There was a pre-post mortem of the Harris campaign at Real Clear Politics yesterday that made all the usual references to 1972 and 1988:

This sort of thing has been seen before and with serious consequences. Here is the history:

Like Harris, McGovern had an embarrassing vice presidential pick in Thomas Eagleton (he was eventually forced to ask Eagleton to withdraw after pledging to back him “1,000 percent”) and then got attacked over and over on his far-left record while his reckless changes on policy positions made him subject to devastating Nixon attack ad depicting the South Dakota senator as a political weathervane. So too, Dukakis had his share of recurring problems and self-inflicted wounds. . . that included the infamous and rather comic moment when in answer to criticisms of his national security bona fides he appeared riding around in a tank with an ill-fitting tank commander’s helmet.

I've been mentioning McGovern and Dukakis all along here as well, but it dawned on me just this morning that neither I nor anyone else has drawn any parallel with 1968. Lyndon Johnson was the last incumbent before Joe Biden to withdraw from a race for renomination and reelection, which he did in March of that year. While the timing of events and their juxtaposition differ this year, one important similarity is that Biden, at least by this phase of the campaign if not earlier, has lost the support of the intellectual left, as had Johnson much earlier in the cycle.

In Johnson's case, that's made clear by rhe famous cartoon linked at the top of this post:

The Vietnam war is extremely controversial and was so from the very beginning. While American interest and involvement in Vietnam preceded President Johnson, the war became his greatest failure. In 1966, Johnson underwent surgery to remove his gall bladder, and in a display of characteristic crassness, he lifted his shirt and exposed a foot-long scar to the press just days after the operation. This cartoon combines both of the President’s predicaments by making the scar resemble the country of Vietnam.

Johnson's loss of intellectual support was also evident in the success of the play MacBird!, written by a a member of the anti-war movement at UC Berkeley:

MacBird! is a 1966 satire by Barbara Garson. It was self-published ('Grassy Knoll Press') as a pamphlet, and the full text appeared in the December, 1966 issue of Ramparts magazine. It was staged in February, 1967.

The play superimposes the John F. Kennedy assassination onto the plot of Shakespeare's Macbeth.

The play burlesques Shakespeare's Macbeth, with lines drawn from other plays such as Hamlet, and Richard III, with Texas and Boston accents. The plot follows MacBird from the 1960 Democratic National Convention, when he becomes John Ken O'Dunc's Vice President ("Hail, Vice-President thou art!"), to Ken O'Dunc's assassination, at the urging of Lady MacBird. Robert Ken O'Dunc then defeats MacBird at the 1968 convention.

In the play, Kennedy becomes "John Ken O'Dunc", Lyndon Johnson becomes "MacBird", Lady Bird Johnson becomes "Lady MacBird", etc. As Macbeth assassinates Duncan, so MacBird assassinates Ken O'Dunc. As Macbeth is defeated by Macduff, so MacBird is defeated by Robert Ken O'Dunc (Robert F. Kennedy).

By this point, Saturday Night Live has dropped any pretense of generosity toward either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, especially in its October 13 show:

The NBC sketch comedy show's [October 13] cold open depicted Trump (played by James Austin Johnson) declining another presidential debate with Harris (Maya Rudolph), but agreeing to compete with her on the game show "Family Feud."

. . . During the game, the contestants were asked to name something they keep in their glove compartment. After ringing in, Rudolph's Harris gave a long-winded response about her family history before finally answering, "A glock, Steve. A big old glock." Samberg's Emhoff, so impressed by Harris' answer, gave the exact same response − which turned out to be on the board again (another gun).

Biden, meanwhile, was depicted by Carvey as being confused about where he was, mistakenly calling Harvey "Regis" (aka Philbin, who died in 2020) and asking to buy a vowel. "I'm not the old one now, Trump is," he said. "The only difference, I know when to walk away: about six months too late!"

The piece at Real Clear Politics that doesn't mention 1968 concludees,

In hindsight, that Harris’s campaign would devolve into chaos and disorder may always have been a matter of when, not if. Her short-lived 2020 run was slammed by insiders as having “no discipline, no plan, no strategy.” Harris’s vice presidential tenure has been similarly chaotic, with an astonishing 92 percent staff turnover rate and myriad reports that Harris mistreats those under her. And no one should forget that as early as one of her first real interviews, a comment she made pandering to gun owners – her “I own a Glock” claim – led to comparisons to Dukakis’s “look at me I can drive a tank” moment.

But I think, it's just as big a factor that the avant-garde left has begun to drop any charade of support for either Biden or Harris.

Saturday, October 19, 2024

2019 Redux

Doing web searches on Kamala, I'm suddenly coming up with stories on her failed primary campaign in 2019, for instance at Politico on December 3 of that year, The spectacular collapse of Kamala Harris:

On Monday, hemorrhaging cash and way down in polls — and with autopsies of her failing campaign being performed on the live body — Harris mercifully decided to drop out. She told her staff in a call Tuesday, sounding clearly disappointed, according to one participant, as she shared her decision to bow out.

Even when the hype around Harris was at its apex, her advisers and confidants wondered if the freshman senator was ready for a presidential run. In each of her past campaigns — first for district attorney of San Francisco, then California attorney general and the Senate in 2016 — Harris improved immensely, rising to the moment and giving her best performances when her back was against the wall.

This time, the moment — and the stage — proved too large. Kamala the campaigner couldn’t live up to Kamala the idea. And her campaign let her down.

The intriguing thing is how applicable the 2019 post mortems now seem to her current position:

Eventually, her most memorable moment — her exchange with Biden in the June debate over busing for school desegregation — turned into a mess when Harris flubbed the follow-through. She offered a muddled, shifting answer that allowed Biden’s campaign to paint her as opportunistic and a hypocrite.

Her polling sugar high subsided. She slid to the level of Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard and never recovered.

Look at the headlines now, just from the past few weeks: Dem strategists fret Harris 'sugar high' is over; Kamala Harris’ ‘sugar high’ has ended: Michael Whatley; Is Kamala Harris' 'sugar high' wearing off?

The current narrative is also similar to 2019's, a campaign that started with a lot of promise that's runniong out of steam:

The Democratic nominee is in a statistical dead heat in crucial states with Trump, the Republican former president, according to public and internal campaign polls cited by Democratic sources, sparking a round of finger-pointing and second-guessing from some corners.

It is a frustrating moment for a whirlwind campaign that opened with a huge jump in enthusiasm and cash when she replaced President Joe Biden in July, put on a robust Democratic convention and was widely hailed as the winner of her only debate with Trump.

Pieces like this still bravely maintain the "statistical dead heat" fiction, but Kamala's standing in the Real Clear Politics averages has been declining all week; as of this morning, her lead in the national popular vote is down to 1.3%.

An oddly prescient conclusion in the 2019 Politico post mortem discussed her political future:

[B]ehind the scenes, advisers were talking about ways to protect her long-term reputation and extricating her from the mess. Harris is 55 years old.

. . . Now, Harris has become among the most coveted endorsements in the race.

Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama, a Biden supporter, said he wasn’t surprised by Harris’ decision to pull the plug. “I think she’s got an incredible future, but this was just not going to be the year and I think doing something now rather than continuing was smart,” Jones said.

Perhaps more importantly, Harris is still very much in the veep stakes, Jones said. (Biden was asked about this Tuesday, but declined to answer.)

So we're looking at the seeds of 2024, which were planted in 2019. Biden, a bad choice for nominee, made an even worse choice for his running mate.

Her disadvantages were well known at the time: there was no there there, and she was open to charges of hypocrisy. The problems, though, could have been avoided if the powers behind the scenes, like then-Speaker Pelosi, had prevailed on Biden to withdraw as a 2024 candidate much earlier. At that point, there would have been a much better opportunity to see that Kamala would never be a viable candidate.