Friday, October 24, 2025

Pope Leo Prays With King Charles

I've already said that I'm staying away from the female Archbishop of Canterbury story, but this latest quasi-ecumenical gesture is mostly unrelated, and it has me scratching my head:

King Charles III and Queen Camilla prayed Thursday [October 16] with Pope Leo XIV in an historic visit to the Vatican to forge closer relations between the Church of England and the Catholic Church, a welcome spiritual respite for the royals from the turmoil at home over sexual misconduct allegations against Prince Andrew.

Charles, who is the titular head of the Church of England, and Camilla sat in golden thrones on the raised altar of the Sistine Chapel, in front of Michelangelo’s “Last Judgment,” while Leo and the Anglican archbishop of York presided over an ecumenical service.

Although one of King Charles's titles is "Supreme Governor of the Church of England", as the UK constitutional monarchy has developed, his role vis-a-vis the Church is exclusively to appoint bishops on the recommendation of the Crown Nominations Commission via the Prime Minister. If he were either to refuse to appoint a bishop as nominated or attempt to remove a bishop, it would cause a major constitutional crisis.

A few weeks ago, Charles in his ceremonial capacity met with President Trump, and each said nice things to each other about shared language and political traditions. Charles's ecumenical gensture with Pope Leo amounted to each saying nice things to each other about the Almighty, and it has nothing to do with theological issues relating to the Reformation, which Charles likely doesn't understand very clearly in any case, and which he would have no power to affect if he did.

On the other hand, I wonder if Pope Leo is even aware of Pope Benedict's 2009 apostolic constitution Anglicanorum Coetibus -- I've never met a US diocesan priest who was aware of it -- which provided primarily for the admission of dissident Anglican and Episcopalian parishes into the Catholic Church as a body, including the ordination of their Anglican or Episcopalian clergy. Even in the increasing pansexualization of Anglicanism, this has had little appeal to conservatives.

For example, although the Catholic Church's interpretation of Anglicanorum Coetibus makes Methodist parishes and their clergy eligible to join, following the recent schism in the United Methodist Church over issues like same-sex marriage that gave UMC parishes the option to leave the UMC and join other denominations -- and thousands of UMC parishes chose this path -- absolutely none chose to become Catholic via Anglicanorum Coetibus, even though they were fully eligible to do this from the viewpoints of both the UMC and the Vatican.

So it's very difficult to say what it would mean to "forge closer relations between the Church of England and the Catholic Church", especially since the Church of England has effectively abandoned the uneasy compromise among Protestant factions on which it settled during the Elizabethan period. The compromises between radical and less radical reformers, with an element of superficial Catholic atmosphere grafted on in the 19th century, would find the current Anglicanism of female bishops and same-sex marriage unrecognizable and utterly repellent.

In this context, GAFCON, the Global Fellowship of Confessing Anglicans, just this month formally separated itself from the Anglican Communion headed by the Archbishop of Canterbury. This was prompted by the appointment of a female Archbishop, which as the panel in the video embedded at the top of this post discussed, created some level of awkwardness even for the meeting of Leo and Charles -- it would apparently have been unseemly to include Her Grace in the meeting, and His Grace the Archbishop of York stood in as a surrogate.

But this leaves the meaning of the encounter between Leo and Charles even less clear. The King has absolutely no effective power over the Church of England, but this hardly matters, since at this point a majority of global Anglicans are outside the Anglican Communion, while even in the UK, the percentage of Church of England membership appears to be around 12-16%, with only about 1% attending services weekly.

The ambiguity is reflected in the panel in the video above, which has chosen Calvin Robinson, a prominent conservative figure, as a representative Anglican. The problem is that as far as anyone can determine, although he wears a clerical collar, Robinson's ordination is not currently recognized by any Anglican denomination. According to Wikipedia,

Robinson trained at St Stephen's House, Oxford, from 2020 with the hope of being ordained in the Church of England, but he was unsuccessful in his application for a curacy. In 2022, he was ordained as a deacon in the Free Church of England, a conservative Confessing Anglican denomination, which he left in 2023 to join the Nordic Catholic Church, a conservative Old Catholic denomination of High Church Lutheran patrimony, which ordained him as a priest.

In 2024 he moved to the United States to become a priest in the Anglican Catholic Church, a Continuing Anglican denomination. The Anglican Catholic Church removed Robinson on 29 January 2025, four days after he ended a speech with a gesture which the church said had been widely interpreted as a "pro-Nazi salute", in an apparent reference to Elon Musk's similar gesture earlier that month. In May 2025, Robinson's parish voted to disaffiliate from the ACC, and he was granted a temporary license by Bishop Ray Sutton of the Reformed Episcopal Church, part of the Anglican Church in North America. This was revoked nine days later after criticism from ACNA archbishop Steve Wood.

Both the Anglican Catholic Church and the Reformed Episcopal Church are splinter denominations that left the US Episcopal Church, about 50 years ago and 150 years ago respectively. Certainly for Robinson, they, like all the tiny substitute denominations he's been through, were ports of convenience, but they give an indication that there are very few potential platforms for high-profile conservative Anglicans. Certainly Robinson would be a more visible figure than any splinter-denomination bishop who would license him to preach, and that's probably the biggest part of his problem -- no conservative splinter denomination could support a prominent apologist, much less a Bp Barron or an Abp Fulton Sheen.

But we're left with a puzzle: what does it mean to "forge closer relations between the Church of England and the Catholic Church" when King Charles can do nothing to further that end, while most Anglicans are no longer part of the Anglican Communion, of which the Archbishop of Canterbury is head -- except that it was apparently deemed politic not to include Her Grace in that meeting meant to "forge closer relations" in any case?

Thursday, October 23, 2025

New Information On January 6 Pipe Bomber?

There's been a flurry of new stories about the FBI releasing video footage of a person who appears to be planting pipe bombs next to the Republican and Democrat National Committee headquarters buildings the evening before January 6, 2021. Actually, there seems to be little new. The FBI has a web page on its site dated September 8, 2021, only eight monthd after the incident, that includes nearly all the information about the suspect that media claims to be "new" in the latest release.

This includes still shots from the video and essentially the same description as in the renewed appeal, including,

The person who placed these bombs wore a face mask, glasses, a grey hooded sweatshirt, gloves, and black and light grey Nike Air Max Speed Turf shoes with a yellow logo. The suspect used a backpack to transport each of the devices.

By that September, the FBI had traced at leaast part of the suspect's path around the immediate area of the buildings and concluded,

Based upon the suspect’s route of travel to the DNC and from the DNC to the RNC, and the manner in which the suspect carries the backpack after placing the pipe bomb at the DNC, the FBI believes the suspect had a location in the vicinity of Folger Park from which the person was operating. Reviews of the suspect’s behavior in video footage and interviews with residents in the Capitol Hill neighborhood have led the FBI to believe the suspect is not from the area.

At that time, the lead FBI figure on the case was Steven M. D’Antuono, assistant director in charge of the FBI’s Washington Field Office. D’Antuono appears not necessarily to have been with the Comey-McCabe-Wray program, and he left the bureau in late 2022 after differing with the Garland Juastice Department over the Mar-a-Lago raid:

In a closed-door congressional interview last week [June 2023], the official who led the FBI’s Washington Field Office at the time of its Mar-a-Lago search detailed a disagreement between bureau and Justice Department officials over how to recover sensitive papers that former President Donald Trump held onto after leaving office.

During his conversation with committee aides, D’Antuono said DOJ wanted FBI agents to immediately use a search warrant to seize documents from Mar-a-Lago, worried that any classified papers there could fall into the wrong hands. But D’Antuono’s team at the FBI’s Washington Field Office wanted to seek Trump’s permission, through the former president’s attorneys, to search the club — pointing out that Trump didn’t even spend his summers at Mar-a-Lago.

. . . “There was consternation from both sides” ahead of the Mar-a-Lago search, D’Antuono told the judiciary panel. “DOJ wants stuff. We were pushing back. That’s the beauty of our system, right. It’s like, that’s the judicial system in a sense.”

But other sources trace D'Antuno's resignation to a threatened Republican investigation:

Just weeks after Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee announced an investigation into recent “operations and actions” at the FBI, Steven D’Antuono, the assistant director in charge of the FBI Washington Field Office announced his retirement on Dec. 2 in a LinkedIn post.

. . . D’Antuono was the FBI agent in charge of the investigations into both the Gov. Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot and the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. He came under fire when two of the defendants in the Whitmer case were acquitted. At the time, there were allegations that the FBI had effectively entrapped them into taking part in the plot. Two other defendants initially received mistrials before being convicted in a second trial.

In a Nov. 18 letter written to FBI director Christopher Wray, the committee listed D’Antuono as one of nine FBI employees they would “require prompt testimony” from as part of their investigation.

As the 2023 link shows, D'Antuono did in fact eventuallty testify, but if he was no longer with the FBI by then, Wray couldn't have stopped him as he appears previously to have done. Although D'Antuono was in charge of the January 6 investigation, the Whitmer kidnap case, and the Mar-a-Lago raid, it appears that much of his testimony has never been released. It does appear that the FBI made almost no progress on investigating the January 6 pipe bombs since D'Antuono was in charge, but when he was in charge, it seems to have made the progress we've seen.

On the other hand, I had a faint memory that a pipe bomb suspect had been traced to a Virginia station on the Washington Metro. I asked Chrome AI mode, "Wasn't there a J6 pipe bomb suspect traced to a Metro stop in Virginia?" It replied, in typical Chronme AI style, with an attempt to set me straight:

No, no J6 pipe bomb suspect has been successfully traced to a specific metro stop in Virginia. While there has been public discussion of this theory, the individual who placed pipe bombs near the DNC and RNC on January 5, 2021, remains unidentified.

The golden mountain does not exist! You'd think AI would be smart enough to have taken Philosophy 101. But then AI proceeds to identify the golden mountain notwithstanding:

The idea that the suspect was traced to a Virginia metro stop comes from a statement by former FBI agent George Seraphin, who was fired from the bureau.

Seraphin, who has criticized the FBI's handling of the case, claimed that early in the investigation, the bureau used Metro system video and a Metro SmarTrip card to track the suspect getting off a train at a Northern Virginia stop. However, he admitted he did not know if the FBI followed up on this lead.

The FBI has never confirmed or released information about any Metro-related lead for the suspect.

So who is George Seraphin? He appears in an October 2022 NBC News story. Seraphin was identified as a

suspended FBI special agent who joined Truth Social and did an interview with conservative firebrand Dan Bongino after his suspension. Seraphin has written that the Jan. 6 cases keep him awake at night, and promoted a fundraiser for a Jan. 6 legal defense fund.

Seraphin himself, in a video posted online, said that he was at a shooting range with local law enforcement officials when the Jan. 6 attack happened, and thought that a bunch of “goofballs” were behind the attack.

“We were laughing about it, and there’s no other way to say it,” he said. “We were literally laughing, people were cracking up, you know, somebody has Nancy Pelosi’s podium. Is that the way that our country is supposed to act? No, but these were a bunch of clowns, that’s not what an insurrection looks like to me.”

In another message on Truth Social, Seraphin said he had “literally hundreds of employees” standing behind him. “You’ll only see me. But you will hear them. And we aren’t happy.”

Seraphin was on now-FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino's radio show several times during the Biden years and made general reference to an association between a Wasshington Metro card and the January 6 pipe bomber, but said little more specific. According to this NBC News story, Seraphin was suspended from the FBI in 2021 for refusing to take the COVID vaccine. He is one of several former agents who were in contact with Kash Patel prior to his designation as FBI Director:

Patel "keeps tabs on me and the guys that he’s helped out, and also we share information about FBI stuff," Seraphin told NBC News.

Patel, through his foundation, provided financial help to Seraphin and other agents who hAd been suspended from the FBI. However, that relationship has more recently soured:

Alexis Wilkins, the longtime girlfriend of FBI Director Kash Patel, is suing an ex-agent and self-described whistleblower for defamation, alleging he called her a former Israeli spy whose relationship with Patel is a “honeypot” operation.

The defendant, Kyle Seraphin, “has maliciously lied” about Wilkins by “falsely asserting that she—an American-born country singer—is an agent of a foreign government, assigned to manipulate and compromise the Director of the FBI,” Wilkins’ attorney wrote in the lawsuit filed Wednesday in federal court in Austin, Texas.

Wilkins accuses Seraphin, a conservative podcaster who calls himself a “recovering FBI agent,” of “using this fabricated story as self-enriching clickbait.”

On one hand, there may be nothing to the possible connection between the J6 pipe bomber and a Washington Metro card. On the other, Kyle Seraphin seems to be so squirrely that the FBI probably needs to retrace all its steps in that case.

Meanwhile, we seem to know almost nothing more than we knew in late summer 2021. My current theory, like my theory about Charlie Kirk assassin Tyler Robinson, is that the pipe bomber's actions appear to be disorganized. On one hand, he wanders around the several-block area of the scene, possibly checking to see if he has a tail, but the streets are deserted -- if he had a tail, there's nothing he could do to disappear. But on the other, he seems completely unaware that in the 2020s, cameras are everywhere.

The guy seems too clueless to be any sort of professional. But the story needs to be followed up to eliminate any serious doubt.

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Why Is There No News?

I check Real Clear Politics twice a day for a take on the conventional wisdom. What's odd today is that nowhere in the list of headlines does the word "shutdown" appear. On the other hand, near the top of the list, there are two big think pieces on the No Kings demonstrations, which appear to be among the biggest non-events in history. But isn't the current government shutdown a much bigger dog that isn't barking?

Curious, I asked Chrome AI mode, "How is trump polling in the shutdown?" Normally, "AI" prefaces its response with a couple of paragraphs to let me know the correct way to think about the question, but this morning, it just listed a bunch of headline links without comment:

Newsweek: Donald Trump Is Winning the Government Shutdown, Polls Suggest
Reuters: Trump's approval edges up despite Americans blaming Republicans for shutdown
The Hill: Trump approval ticks up despite GOP shutdown blame: Survey
CNN: Could Democrats win the shutdown standoff? They’re still winning the blame game
PBS: Who’s winning the blame game over the shutdown? Here’s what a new AP-NORC poll shows

The PBS link, which we may assume is one of the most liberal, is hardly optimistic:

Roughly 6 in 10 Americans say President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of responsibility for the shutdown, while 54% say the same about Democrats in Congress, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. At least three-quarters of Americans believe each deserves at least a “moderate” share of blame, underscoring that no one is successfully evading responsibility.

It looks like any take that the Democrats are "winning the blame game" even if Trump's popularity is rising is optiimistic indeed. The consensus of even liberal commentators is that the polling is a "jump ball". But only a little over half of US adults think the shutdown is a big deal at all:

The poll finds that 54% of U.S. adults call the shutdown a “major issue,” with just 11% saying it is “not a problem at all.” Democrats are most likely, at 69%, to see it as a major problem, but 59% of independents and 37% of Republicans feel the same way.

I decided to take a look at the paradigmatic shutdown, the pair of closures led by Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1995-96. According to Wikipedia,

As a result of conflicts between Democratic President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress over funding for education, the environment, and public health in the 1996 federal budget, the United States federal government shut down from November 14 through November 19, 1995, and from December 16, 1995, to January 6, 1996, for 5 and 21 days, respectively. Republicans also threatened not to raise the debt ceiling.

. . . Polling generally showed that most respondents blamed congressional Republicans for the shutdowns, and Clinton's handling of the shutdowns may have bolstered his ultimately successful campaign in the 1996 presidential election. The second of the two shutdowns was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history until the 2018–2019 government shutdown surpassed it in January 2019.

. . . A 1995 ABC News poll had Republicans receiving the brunt of the blame with 46% of respondents compared to the 27% that blamed Clinton. Clinton's Gallup approval rating stood at 51% in the early days of the December shutdown, but fell significantly to 42% as it progressed into January. Once the shutdown had ended, however, his Gallup approval ratings rose to their highest since his election.

However, the overall political impact of the shutdown is harder to gauge. Its impact on the 1996 election, especially in Congress, was counterintuitive:

The shutdown also influenced the 1996 Presidential election. Bob Dole, the Senate Majority Leader, was running for president in 1996. Due to his need to campaign, Dole wanted to solve the budget crisis in January 1996 despite the willingness of other Republicans to continue the shutdown unless their demands were met. In particular, as Gingrich and Dole had been seen as potential rivals for the 1996 Presidential nomination, they had a tense working relationship.

. . . Gingrich stated that the first re-election of a Republican [House] majority since 1928 was due in part to the Republican Party's hard line on the budget. The Republican Party had a net loss of eight seats in the House in the 1996 elections but retained a 227-206-seat majority in the upcoming.

Dole lost the 1996 election, at least in part because he ran on the idea that his canmpaign was a "last mission for the greatest generation", which inevitably contrasted his age with the younger and comprehensively more vigorous Clinton. Dole certainly played to type two years later as the national spokesman for Viagra, which Clinton presumably didn't need -- this may have been the unspoken underlying issue of the campaign. It's also hard to argue with the implicit contrast with Gingrich's congrressional strategy in the election, where Dole stood for compromise while Gingrich continued a hard line. Republicans lost the presidency, while they held onto Congress.

A reasonable assessment that might be made across the 1995-96 and the 2025 shutdowns is that over the long term, energetic hardliners succeed electorally, while figures who seem namby-pamby or perhaps past their sell-by date don't. Right now, Trump is the energetic hardliner despite his age, while Schumer is as old as Dole was in 1996 and has the aura of letting women like AOC boss him around, while nobody's complaining that Schumer is too hot to trot. Gennifer Flowers and Paula Jones didn't hurt Clinton in 1996, any more than Stormy Daniels and E Jean Carroll hurt Trump in 2024, which is to say that the ladies all subliminally worked to Clinton's and Trump's benefit, even in the context of shutdowns. But one of the few efforts I've seen to explain the current alignment omits these factors:

During the 2018-2019 government shutdown (the longest federal shutdown in US history lasting 35 days), Donald Trump's first term administration was ill prepared for the tactics used by the establishment media, Democrats and even saboteurs within his own cabinet. The narrative spin was highly effective in painting Trump as the villain, subverting his efforts to achieve lasting security at the southern border.

The 2018 shutdown hinged largely on the fight between Republicans and Democrats over funding for a border wall that would ensure far lower illegal immigration numbers well after Trump left office. The construction cost of $5.7 billion seems like a pittance compared to the projected cost of $350 billion to deport alien migrants over four years.

Seen from this perspective, I would say the problem in 2018-19 was that the issue was too specific and not couched in bigger terms. In 2025, the issue isn't budgetary line items, the issue is Trump vs Schumer, just as after the 1995-1996 shutdowns, the issue became Clinton vs Dole. I think in both cases, the outcome will favor the higher-profile, more energetic figure. Dole lost to Clinton in 1996, but Gingrich won as well. Something like that dynamic is happening now.

So of course, there's no news about it.

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

More On Trump's Shutdown Strategy

I'm seeing very little commentary on the shutdown that takes into account what we've been learning about Trump. First, as we've seen with the Hanas deal, little pieces of an overall strategy fall into place over a period of months. The June B-2 raid on Iran's nuclear facilities was seen as an isolated episode that was maybe even ineffective. By October, it began to be recognized that it was a big enoujgh blow to Iranian power and prestige that Iran's neighbors could agree to pressure Iran's client Hamas into a peace deal.

By the same token, the shutdown is just one part of an overall domestic strategy to break down the current structure of the Democrat party. Several things are working to his advantage: Democrat leadership figures are simply aging out: Nancy Pelosi is 85, already retired as Speaker, still retaining her House seat, but increasingly frail. Bernie Sanders is 84, still vocal only because there are no credible younger replacements who aren't jokes, but the calendar is the calendar.

The other major leadership figure still in office is Schumer, a decade younger at 74, but so likely to be defeated in the 2028 primary cycle that he's already a lame duck, with no heir apparent. Trump is acutely aware of this:

“The Democrats have no leader. They remind me of Somalia,” Trump said.

“I don’t, I just don’t know if Schumer has any power anymore. I look at your, your leadership. I don’t know who to speak to.”

Trump has repeatedly claimed Schumer fears a 2028 primary challenge by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), saying: “Schumer is petrified of the primary because he’s not going to win, probably against anybody.”

Most important, Schumer isn't holding the party together in a coherent shutdown strategy, because he can't. One problem is a putative consensus among Democrats that the Republicans should agree to extension of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, but there's no real assurance that that would be enough, and the specifics of what Democrats might accept have never been clear:

Democrats say they're fighting to restore Medicaid benefits that were cut in President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful" tax and budget bill, which he signed into law in July.

The morning after the shutdown began, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, told MSNBC that Democrats are not in any way asking for health care for people in the country without legal status.

. . . The new law restricts eligibility only to U.S. citizens, legal permanent residents, i.e. green card holders and certain Cuban and Haitian immigrants.

. . . Democrats want to reverse many of the health care-related provisions included in the new act to keep more Americans, and some lawful immigrants, eligible for Medicaid. They say the shutdown is over preserving healthcare access, and there is no proposal to provide free health care to people living in the country illegally.

So the real dispute isn't over premiums, it involves what additional groups, mainly involving one or another class of migrants, can be added to Medicaid. The question is whether a simple agreement to negotiate continued ACA premium subsidies alone in return for reopening the government would bring enough Democrats around to reach 60 votes, or whether other concessions would be needed.

It's plain that Trump currently sees no urgency in even starting any such negotiation. Ed Kilgore writes in New York Magazine,

Nearly three weeks into the current federal-government shutdown, Democrats have made it clear that their principal — and, perhaps, their sole — demand for cooperating to end it is a commitment to move some sort of bipartisan extension of the Obamacare premium subsidies, due to expire at the end of the year. They may be willing to accept half a loaf, like an ironclad commitment for a vote on a specific measure, or a Trump commitment to back some kind of remedy for an impending health-insurance-price spike that worries Republicans, too.

Kilgore refers to "Democrats" as though they're a single group, but they aren't. At The Hill,

Democratic senators acknowledge a handful of their colleagues would love to end the tense standoff over federal funding, but they say those members are worried a liberal backlash could end their political careers.

“Are there enough Democrats to join Republicans to reopen the government? Not in the near term,” said the Democratic senator who requested anonymity. “There is no bipartisan conversation that’s anything but bulls‑‑‑.”

This is what Trump understands; there's nobody who can shepherd the Democrats into a single group that will negotiate realistically with Republicans, and the moderates are terrified of the leftists. Put another way, Zohran Mamdani and AOC are the de facto leadership of the Democrats, with veto power over any consensus. But neither can they assemble a national majority on their own.

It's also worth remembering that Trump takes a multifaceted approach to solving any problem. The shutdown right now applies to congressional Democrats, but he isn't concentrating just on congressional Demnocrats. He's clearly also taking aim at big-city and blue-state Democrat machines via his parallel crime fighing efforts, sending DHS, ICE, FBI, and the National Guard into places like Chicago, Portland, and San Francisco.

But he isn't stopping there. The military attacks on drug smuggling boats and submarines coming from Venezuela and Colombia are intended to turn off the money spigot that uses drugs to fund the big-city machines. Meanwhile, potential crises loom if the shutdown contines into November, but Trump is deliberately preoccupied with foreign policy:

President Donald Trump — mostly checked out during the standoff — leaves Friday for Asia after spending the weekend at his Palm Beach, Fla., home. The White House feels as if it’s winning the political fight. So if Congress wants to get Trump’s attention, this is the moment to do so.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been practically begging Trump to get involved in negotiating a deal to extend the enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies. Trump, though, has easily resisted these calls and is letting Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune run the shutdown strategy.

. . . If Democrats are willing to accept a political victory without a policy win, this is a critical moment for Schumer to figure out what this looks like — and how he shields himself from inevitable criticism from the left. What does Schumer demand in exchange for Democratic votes to reopen the government? Is it a vote on extending the subsidies? Will Schumer cut loose some moderates and retiring Democrats? How does he message this publicly?

In other words, Schumer is hoping the potential fallout from a continuing shutdown will lead Trump to rescue him from his own leadership dilemma by opening negotiations. But why should Trump do Schumer any favors? And if he opens negotiations, won't that simply give the left more opportunities to pressure Schumer to try to get more concessions from Trump? Trump has nothing to lose by letting the shutdown continue, and a lot to lose by rescuing Schumer:

It’s day 20 of the Schumer Shutdown, and Donald Trump is winning. Don’t take my word for it—CNN is admitting that this Democrat-led fiasco has done nothing to hurt the president’s approval. In fact, Trump’s approval has increased. CNN’s Harry Enten broke down the numbers. In terms of ‘blame,’ even the networks data cruncher said, “it’s a different world’ for the better for the Trump White House.

The end result of this particular phase in the overall war will likely be continued diminished prestige for Schumer, but the unlikelihood that any serious change in Democrat congressional leadership will emerge. But we need to keep io mind that this is just part of a bigger strategy.

Monday, October 20, 2025

Nancy Pelosi Has Gone Blonde!

Speaker Emerita Pelosi's "Shut up!" outburst against a reporter got a great deal of attention last week, but what struck me was how well it reflected the detective Philip Marlowe's remark, "From thirty feet away she looked like a lot of class. From ten feet away she looked like something made up to be seen from thirty feet away." In the clip above, with the well-tended hair framing sunglasses, she very briefly looks much younger, until she turns and angrily croaks, revealing every one of her 85 years.

The other thing I noticed was that she now has blonde highlights in her hair. This seems to be new, along with the sunglasses. I asked Chrome AI mode, "Does Nancy Pelosi often wear sunglasses?" and it answered,

While Nancy Pelosi does wear sunglasses, particularly when outside, the idea that she "often" wears them likely stems from a few highly publicized and memorable instances rather than being a regular habit.

But the examples it then gives are from 2015 and 2018, which reinforces in my mind that she's had a makeover. I get the same feeling from the video clip below; her hair is lighter there, too. But the main thing she's doing is reprising what she must feel is the high point of her career, when she tore up Trump's State of the Union speech on February 4, 2020, immediately after he finished delivering it to a joint session of Congress. The problem was that in that case, she was tearing up a whole program, and indeed, announcing her intent to tear up Trump himself; whereas more than five years later, Trump is back, she's turned old and frail, and all she can manage to tear up is a little paper crown that has nothing to do with Trump.

And what must really rankle is Trump's remarks to Maria Bartiromo in yesterday's interview:

Well, look, the Democrats are kamikazes right now. They're kamikaze pilots right now. They have nothing going. They have no future. They have incompetent candidates. I mean, I looked at Crockett, Jasmine Crockett. She's a low -- very low- I.Q. person. She's polling OK in the Democrat Party. I can't even believe it. AOC is -- I watched her the other day.

He's mentioning Jasmine Crockett and AOC as the current leading lights of the Democrats -- Nancy Pelosi isn't even worth bringing up. She's 2020's news.

But they're still talking about Trump. Can you imagine what that's doing to her?

Sunday, October 19, 2025

The Strangely Inchoate No Kings Protests

A headline at Breitbart: Boomers Be Wildin’! Furries and Geriatrics Take Over D.C. During ‘No Kings’ Protest:

The “No Kings” protests have returned, and with that the Democrat geriatrics have as well, but this time with furries alongside in the trenches!

Then there's this tweet from Marion, NC: This story at Colorado Public Radio suggests the furries at the Portland protests have caught on with the public at large:

Thousands of Coloradans gathered in cities large and small on Saturday to voice their opposition to the Trump administration as part of a nationwide network of protests called “No Kings.” The name is in reference to what organizers say are the president’s authoritarian actions.

This was the second such protest this year. This time, however, many came out in droves with inflatable costumes, a tactic that started in Portland during recent immigration raids.

But here's part of the abstract of a medical article at the National Library of Medicine:

If some furries are sexually motivated, they may be motivated by an erotic target identity inversion (ETII): sexual arousal by the fantasy of being the same kinds of individuals to whom they are sexually attracted. Furries with ETIIs would experience both sexual attraction to anthropomorphic animals and sexual arousal by fantasizing about being anthropomorphic animals, because they often change their appearance and behavior to become more like anthropomorphic animals. We surveyed 334 male furries recruited from the Internet about their sexual orientation, sexual motivation, and sexual interests. A large majority of our sample reported non-heterosexual identities (84%) and some degree of sexual motivation for being furries (99%). Male furries also tended to report a pattern of sexual interests consistent with an ETII involving anthropomorphic animals. Both sexual attraction to anthropomorphic animals and sexual arousal by fantasizing about being anthropomorphic animals were nearly universal.

Not that there's anything wrong with that -- the abstract concludes,

This sexual motivation and these unusual sexual interests do not justify discrimination or stigmatization.

As I've noted here, the YouTube pop psychologist Dr Todd Grande has assured us that only a small subset of furries has sex with each other in animal suits -- but the size of this small subset, according to the study at the link, is maybe 99%. Oddly, the study focused on 334 male furries, among whom 84% appear to have identified as LGBTQ+. Er, are there any female furries? Seems like a good question, but the study doesn't answer. But I asked Chrome AI mode, "Are most furries male?" It answered,

Yes, available research shows that the furry fandom is predominantly male. Survey data from Furscience, the leading research group on the fandom, has consistently found a significant gender disparity, though the exact numbers vary slightly depending on the specific study and year.

. . . The most cited studies and surveys suggest that approximately two-thirds or more of the furry community identifies as male. For example, a 2020 Furscience study indicated 65.7% of respondents identified as male. Other surveys conducted over the years have reported figures ranging from 65% to over 80%.

A writer at Red State comments on the other major presence at the No Kings rallies, the Boomers:

I have become more and more convinced that for the Boomers, this is the replacement for the rock concerts they can no longer be a part of. It's kind of like when they said, Hey, remember Woodstock? I was there! Now they boast, You coming to the "No Kings" rally? Great! I'll meet you after at Denny's for the senior special!

But here's a crossover:
On the other hand, this commenter strongly suggests the seniors at the rallies were paid: More from PJ Media:

I’m also seeing reports from folks on the ground that many were well-rewarded for their efforts, with most reports indicating $300 to $500 for the day. I’ll leave to others the task of documenting where, exactly, that money came from and, for that matter, how the tax situation was handled. It should be noted that not all of them were paid.

All we can conclude for now is that the consitituencies of the No Kings rallies seem fairly limited, and they probably aren't compatible. The furries seem to be exploiting an opportunity to make their deviance publicly acceptable -- at least they aren't parading almost naked in leather gear. It just isn't clear what the seniors want, other than an opportunity for a brief outing on a pleasant fall day. But as Arianna Huffington said more than a generation ago, "Leading a revolution means more than borrowing a bottle of Grecian Formula."

Saturday, October 18, 2025

What's Trump's Shutdown Strategy?

A point I've been making about Trump, especially in his second term, is that he isn't the implulsive, ego-driven guy the legacy media wants to make him, although I haven't seen even any alt media making a serious effort to portray him as an astute strategist. But clearly a bull-in-the-china-shop disrupter couldn't have worked out this past week's Gaza deal -- and let's recognize that he's also been eager to share credit for that with Secretary Rubio and his personal emissaries. This isn't a comic-book narcissist.

But if there's method to the madness, what's his strategy for the shutdown? He seems over the past several weeks to have been concentrating on foreign policy; after the Gaza deal, he seems to have been renewing focus on Ukraine, while raising the level of harassment against Maduro in Venezuela. Over the same period, he's had little to say about the shutdown, other than consistently calling the Democrats "deranged" every few days since before it began. He seems happy enough to let Speaker Johnson make most of the public comment. As of yesterday, he added slightly more:

In clips that aired Friday from Trump's interview with Fox Business's Maria Bartiromo, President Trump was asked about the ongoing closure of the government by the Democrats and if he thought that this weekend's "No Kings" rally planned by leftists in Washington, D.C., and across the country was the reason Democrats had refused to reopen the government.

Trump shook his head no and explained that the shutdown was happening because Schumer is trying to hang on to his failing political career.

"Chuck is at the end of the line," Trump said. "He's being beaten by everybody that they poll against him. And you know what he did is he did the right thing a couple of years ago on something like this. And he got hurt by his party. "

"I don't think it matters to him," he added. "He's just so dead that he will do anything. I think they could just stay out forever, to be honest with you."

On one hand, Trump doesn't seem particularly perturbed at the idea of the shutdown lasting "forever", although I suspect it's because he's confident it won't. His move to use unspent funds to pay the miitary on October 15 relieved a pressure point on the administration, but a new one now looms if other federal workers, including air traffic controllers and TSA, go unpaid through Thanksgiving.

“As TSA agents and air traffic controllers show up without pay, Democrats brag they won’t budge until planes fall out of the sky,” said Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), the GOP conference chair. “Really? Seriously?”

. . . “Airports will be flooded with flight cancellations and delays amid the busiest time to travel all year, and the list goes on and on,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said alongside Speaker Mike Johnson at a news conference Tuesday, calling on Democrats to “reopen our government.”'

The polls appear to be moving:

Just last week, the blame gap stood at 11 points, with 39% of Americans pointing fingers at President Trump and Republicans, while 33% blamed Democrats. Now that gap has shrunk to just 6 points, with Democrats holding steady at 33% but losing ground as fewer voters are willing to split the blame equally between both parties. That number dropped from 23% to 20% in a single week.

Via Axios:

In his first term, President Trump was highly sensitive to being blamed for a shutdown, and there has been an undercurrent of bipartisan belief that he will try to get a deal from Democrats this time.

But so far, Trump has displayed none of the concerns or worry he had in 2018-2019, during the longest shutdown of 35 days.

This seems to be borne out by his seeming imperturbability at the prospect of the shutdown lasting "forever". As he appears to see it, Schumer isn't thinking strategically, he's just fighting a losing battle to prolong his career. Axios contiinues,

44% in the internal White House polling blame the shutdown on President Trump and the GOP-led Congress. 38% blame Democrats.

But public opinion has shifted a net of seven percentage points against Democrats. Two weeks ago, Democrats had a 13-point advantage on who was to blame. Now that lead has been cut by more than half.

The trend line of the White House's polling numbers are consistent with YouGov/Economist surveys that showed Democrats taking more blame as the shutdown grinds on.

Yesterday's headline at The Daily Beast: How Trump Broke Congress in Just Nine Months. The subhead: The government shutdown is just the tip of the iceberg of the dysfunction in Washington, DC.

As for a president so keen to tout his peacemaking skills overseas, he has not lifted a finger to facilitate an end to the standoff, and in many instances, eagerly stoked the political battle raging just down the road on Capitol Hill as his top officials look at ways to consolidate his power in Washington, DC, further.

I asked Chrome AI mode, "Is The Daily Beast left-wing?" and it replied,

Based on analyses by media watchdogs and other observers, The Daily Beast is generally considered left-leaning or liberal, particularly in its commentary and opinion content. While the outlet describes its news reporting as "non-partisan but not neutral," its liberal bias is a widely noted characteristic.

In other words, the left is starting to worry that Trump is going to win this. Because, of course, he's impulsive and ego-driven.