Shutdown Wishful Thinking

🚨 BREAKING: Sen. Markwayne Mullin has just learned Democrats are plotting to reopen the government likely WEDNESDAY or THURSDAY, after communist Zohran Mamdani wins

"They're telling us they plan to open it up probably Wednesday or Thursday, after the election. After they elect… pic.twitter.com/MksN3k02HH

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2025

As of this past Wednesday, a writer at Semafor predicted,

Senators in both parties — below the leadership level — are starting to see an unmistakable shift that they hope leads to a bipartisan agreement to end the shutdown, perhaps as early as next week, according to more than a dozen sources.

. . . There’s no sign yet that Democrats are willing to support the House GOP’s stopgap bill on Thursday, when it’s next scheduled for a Senate vote, but Semafor confirmed a noticeable thaw in the shutdown dynamics among members and aides across the aisle.

On the other hand, Aaron Blake at CNN argues,

Democrats would seem to have relatively little reason to back down — and plenty of reason to stick with their demands that Republicans come to the table on extending the enhanced Obamacare subsidies. Imagine a situation in which they have these seeming political advantages and they throw in the towel anyways. It’s not difficult to see that reigniting a backlash on the left.

And in case that danger wasn’t clear, witness a newly released Pew Research Center poll. It asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who expressed frustration with the party what the main reason for that was. Far and away, the most-cited reason was not fighting hard enough against the Trump administration, which 41% cited.

At this point, the Republicans are no more willing to back down than the Democrats:

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned Sunday that flights across the country could be delayed or even canceled due to the ongoing government shutdown as staffing shortages at air traffic control facilities spread nationwide.

Speaking with ABC News' "This Week" co-anchor Martha Raddatz while a ground stop was in effect at Newark Liberty International Airport, Duffy said "We will delay, we will cancel, any kind of flight across the national airspace to make sure people are safe" amid the shortages.

There's also the unresolved question of whether the asdministration must continue to make SNAP payments:

One day after ordering the Trump administration to continue funding food stamps during the shutdown, a federal court gave the government a choice. It can either make full payments by Monday, or partial payments by Wednesday, to spare low-income Americans from hardship.

. . . But the thrust of the judge’s order raised logistical questions. The SNAP reserve totals about $5 billion, less than the roughly $8 billion needed to pay full SNAP benefits each month. Even if they used the money, officials at the Agriculture Department had also warned they might have to slash benefits by more than half, and that it could take weeks to pay them out because of technical constraints.

. . . It remained unclear how the Trump administration might proceed — or, potentially, if it might appeal the ruling. The Justice Department appeared to signal the mere possibility in a late Friday filing with the court, hinting that it was “considering whether any emergency relief is required.”

One thing I've noticed for a long time about media, both legacy and alt, is that reporters and analysts see a bunch of holidays building up -- in the spring, there's spring break, followed by Memorial Day, followed by Juneteenth, then the Fourth of July, at which point they leave on summwr vacation, and there's no serious news between spring break and Labor Day. But then, after Labor Day, up comes Columbus Day, then Halloween, then Veterans Day, then Thanksgiving, then Christmas, and there's no serious news until after Martin Luther King's birthday.

So the only semi-serious analysis of the court orders over SNAP I've seen is this -- nothing from, say, Jonathan Turley or maybe Alan Dershowitz:

A court has just concluded that a federal program must operate in the absence of current appropriations. That’s…an interesting choice.

. . . Judge Talwani orders the executive branch to pay for current operations despite the absence of current appropriations. She just limited the reach of the government shutdown, routing ongoing spending around the absence of a budget or a continuing resolution.

If that door is open, at least try to walk through it. The courts are demanding that the Executive Branch spend available money without worrying about current congressional appropriations for federal operations. Take them up on it, and see how committed they are to the principle.

Looks like nobody could find an actul constitutional lawyer to weigh in -- it's the Halloween weekend, after all, and next week is Veterans Day, and after that, Thanksgiving. . .