The Story So Far
Let's keep in mind that ever since the Viet Nam War, the conventional wisdom has been that "negotiations" have nothing to do with ending a war, they're a tactic for the weaker side to get an extended pause in the bombing so they can recover, rehuild, and resume hostilities at a time of their choosing.
Let's also keep in mind that modern Islamists simply never "negotiate" in good faith. They use "negotiations" like the North Vietnamese did, with the added feature that following extended delay, as soon as the "negotiations" conclude, they violate any "agreements" and simply resume fighting.
But let's add a third factor. Trump is no dummy, and he prides himself on his ability as a negotiator. All week, a little voice in my head kept telling me Trump had to be aware of what the Iranians would do in any "negotiation". Why would he waste his time? After yesterday's developments, I think we're starting to get the picture.
On April 1, in a national address, Trump said the US military objectives in Iran were "very close" to being met. By April 8, the day after Iran agreed to "negotiate",
". . . America's military achieved every single objective on plan, on schedule, exactly as laid out from day one," Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said during a press briefing this morning at the Pentagon. "Iran's navy is at the bottom of the sea. .. . Iran's air force has been wiped out. Iran no longer has . . . any sort of a comprehensive air defense system; we own their skies. Their missile program is functionally destroyed: launchers, production facilities and existing stockpiles depleted and decimated."
In other words, if Iran intended to buy any sort of time to rebuild in a cease fire, or somehow delay a US offensive, this wouldn't buy them anything; the US had already met its objectives. Still, the conventional wisdom insisted Iran had one final card: they still controlled the Strait of Hormuz:
Iran has insisted that ships wanting to transit the strait must secure its permission and has suggested it retains the right to impose a fee for passage.
The Iranian navy released a map late Wednesday indicating it may have mined the strait and outlining the designated shipping lanes vessels should use to transit safely. It directs outbound ships leaving the Persian Gulf along a route just south of Larak Island, while inbound vessels must follow a route north of the island — both closer to Iran’s mainland than the route often taken before the war.
A large portion of the strait, marked in a rectangular box that also includes Oman’s territorial waters, is designated in the map as “hazardous.”
That's what Iran was claming as of Thursday. The situiation was unclear:
Chinese ships were among a long line of vessels waiting for clearance to leave the strait, said Muyu Xu, a Singapore-based analyst with Kpler. She said that the overall picture was still confusing and cited how last week Iran said it was accepting Chinese yuan as payment for transit, but then changed to a preference for cryptocurrency.
Ships “don’t know whether they need to pay first, or they go past first and then Iran sends a bill? It’s just a lot of uncertainty,” she said.
Which is just how Iran wanted it -- yes, they'd agreed to open the strait, but given the overall uncertainty, it was de facto closed. And who knew where all those mines were, or whether there were any at all? This would also keep insurers nervous and keep rates high.So he talks began Friday, but not long after they started,
Centcom wrote Saturday on X that its forces “began setting conditions for clearing mines” in the passageway.
The command added that the USS Frank E. Petersen and USS Michael Murphy, both guided-missile destroyers, transited the strait and operated in the Arabian Gulf “as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines” that the IRGC previously laid.
“Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon to encourage the free flow of commerce,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of Centcom.
This was preceded by idle threats from Iran. At the same link:
After the U.S. military launched operations to de-mine the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy reportedly warned an American destroyer in the passageway.
“This is the last warning. This is the last warning,” the Iranian forces radioed to one of the two U.S. destroyers in the strait, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“Passage in accordance with international law. No challenge is intended to you, and I intend to abide by rules of our government’s cease-fire,” the U.S. ship responded, referring to the temporary pause in hostilities between the two sides.
The Hill has reached out to U.S. Central Command (Centcom) for comment on the reported radio message. The IRGC Navy, meanwhile, denied Saturday that U.S. ships passed through the Strait.
Consider this: the US sent not one, but two destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz. It's hard to avoid thinking it would never do this if there were the remotest chance of either ship hitting a mine and being damaged, much less sinking. Imagine the morning headlines, much less the photos and video equivalent to Ukraine's sinking the Russian guided missile cruiser Moskva in 2022. It would be a military disaster exponentially worse than if Iran had captured the second airman who'd ejected from an F-15 last weekend. This was yet another of Trump's calculated risks, and again, it paid off.
In the least surprising international news this week, Vice President JD Vance provided an update Saturday night on his negotiations with the Iranian regime that included confirmation of that regime‘s refusal to make any reasonable deal.
. . . Within two hours of the ceasefire announcement, the Iranian regime was already bombing multiple countries in the Middle East, especially Israel. It also refused to track down and disable the mines it scattered in the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously demanding massive tolls from countries that send ships through the strait. Throughout every step of the process this week, the Iranian regime has been arrogant, demanding, defiant, and irrational.
This strikes me as confirmation that this had been Trump's plan all along: Iran was expecting to use the "negotiation" as a means to drag out the cease fire for its own benefit while continuing to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage. But as we've seen over and over, one of Trump's own negotiating strategies is always to walk out, which on Saturday, having proven the US is the one that controls the strait, he instructed Vamce to do. Then,
President Donald Trump announced a U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Trump made the announcement in a post on his Truth Social account, blaming the failure to reach a deal with Iran during talks in Pakistan this weekend.
"At some point, we will reach an 'ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT' basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, 'There may be a mine out there somewhere,' that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted," Trump continued.
"I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!
So at the end of the week.- Trump negated the Islamist "negotiating" strategy of delay via inmtransigence and simply announced negotiations were over
- Then he simply demonstrated that the US already controls the key negotiating asset Iran thought it had, the Strait of Hormuz
- He then announced the US itself was blockading the strait, subject to removing all mines.
