Monday, May 11, 2026

The Spencer Pratt Fantasy

I'm seeing a lot of wild predictions about Spencer Pratt's electoral chances with very little backup -- most of it is just an adrenaline rush following laast week's ads, the most visible of which didn't come from his campaign. Here's Tyler Durden yesterday:

Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt, best known for his role on MTV’s The Hills, is gaining traction on online prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as local polling, after a series of viral campaign videos and last week’s mayoral debate.

Pratt’s campaign has released hard-hitting viral ads that have spread across social media like wildfire. His election odds are rising as voters realize that the far-left incumbent, Mayor Karen Bass, and socialist Councilmember Nithya Raman have transformed one of America’s top cities into a cesspool of crime, chaos, drugs, and out-of-control taxes.

But LA has been LA a lot longer than just the past four years. There was mild hope for some sort of reform in the 2022 election, when developer Rick Caruso, a former Republican who changed his registration to Democrat, ran against Karen Bass for the open mayor's seat:

Real estate developer Rick Caruso's campaign strategy in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election is being critically re-evaluated after his defeat by Karen Bass, who secured 54.83% of the vote compared to Caruso's 45.17%. The outcome has prompted commentary regarding Caruso's approach, with one social media user, Matt Bilinsky, stating, "And Rick Caruso thought he needed to support every brain dead liberal initiative to best her. An all-time fumble."

. . . During his campaign, Caruso adopted positions that some observers considered aligned with traditionally liberal policies, particularly on issues such as climate change and certain social programs. For instance, he advocated for aggressive measures to combat climate change, including transitioning to 100% renewable energy and electrifying city vehicles. He also proposed expanding mental health services and addressing the root causes of homelessness, alongside his tough-on-crime stance.

The last successful quasi-reform mayor of Los Angeles was Richard Riordan, who was mayor from 1993 to 2001. One of his accomplishments was a ballot initiative to impose term limits on city council members, which passed in 1994. Before that, council members stayed in office for decades, got rich, and died in office. Nevertheless, term limits had no effect on the continuing political machine, which simply continued to put its favored candidates in place, just more often. Other Riordan programs were mostly ineffective:

As Mayor, the heavily Democratic Los Angeles City Council blocked many of his proposals, or they proved unfeasible in reality. For example, the police academy did not have enough classroom space or instructors to train as many new police officers as Riordan had initially promised. He streamlined certain business regulations and established "one-stop" centers around the city for services, like permit applications.

Riordan feuded with police chief Daryl Gates' successor, former Philadelphia police commissioner Willie Williams, but oversaw a general decline in city crime. Ultimately, Riordan replaced Williams with LAPD veteran Bernard Parks in 1997, the year he was re-elected mayor over California State Senator Tom Hayden.

If Spencer Pratt wins the election, he'll face the same problems Riordan did. I asked Chrome AI mode, "Does the Mayor of Los Angeles have the authority to order the police to arrest the homeless?" It answered,

While the Mayor of Los Angeles has the executive authority to set policy and sign ordinances that regulate public spaces, they generally do not have the power to "order" the police to arrest someone simply for being homeless. Instead, legal authority for arrests comes from specific city ordinances and state laws, and law enforcement operations are typically managed by the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) under its own chain of command.

The Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department reports directly to the Board of Police Commissioners, not the mayor. This five-member civilian board, appointed by the mayor and confirmed by the city council, functions as the head of the police department, setting overall policy and overseeing operations.The Chief of Police is appointed by the mayor (with city council consent) and works with the mayor's office on public safety priorities.

The sweeping policy changes Pratt is suggesting in the X tweet at the top of this post wouldn't be possible without the support of the Police Commission.

Police Commissioners serve five-year terms, limited to two terms. While the mayor can fire members of the Polce Commission, a fired member can appeal the mayor's decision to the city council. The council can override the decision with a two-thirds vote. Any attempt by Spencer Pratt to force a crackdown on homelessness as he suggests would face heavy resistance from the current Police Commission and the very liberal city council.

Mark Halperin is another observer who says, "I think Spencer Pratt's going to win. I almost never predict anything, but I think he's going to win, because those videos are just too good." Nevertheless, in the absence of any reliable polls, Polymarket as of today has Bass at 49%, up 1%, Pratt at 30%, up 10%. and Raman at 18%, down 14%. If these were percentages for the June 2 primary results, Pratt would squeak by to put Bass into a runoff, but Bass would still be a heavy favorite in November.

Although Pratt's momentum has surged since last week's debate against Bass and Raman, a second debate scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, won't have the same effect. Bass, still the front runner, has withdrawn from that debate.

Of the five candidates originally invited, three are still slated to appear: Councilwoman Nithya Raman, businessman Adam Miller [1% on Polymarket], and community advocate Rae Huang [1% on Polymarket].

Spencer Pratt had never agreed to appear, while Bass likely sees greater downside if she participates and does as poorly as she did last week.

The most recent polling as of five weeks ago had Bass at 25%, Pratt at 11%, and Raman at 9%, with 40% undecided. According to Ballotpedia,

UCLA's Zev Yaroslavsky writes, "It is unusual for 40% of likely voters to be unsure of their choice just two months before an LA mayoralty election. Although Mayor Bass faces the most challenging reelection of an incumbent mayor in decades, it is highly likely that this election will be decided in a November runoff." The last time an incumbent mayor was not re-elected was in 2005, when Mayor James Hahn lost to Antonio Villaraigosa 58.6%-41.4%.

Spencer Pratt's problem is on one hand, there's not a whole lot of actual subatance there, but on the other, even if he's elected in November in a runoff with Bass, it doesn't seem like he has a realistic chance to put his policies in place. There's a glimmer of hope for him in the possibility that unlike Rick Caruso, the electorate will vote for a candidate who represents a clear-cut choice, but the question remains whether Pratt can follow through and implement real policy changes.

posted by test @ May 11, 2026   0 Comments