Mark Halperin On Post-Platner Maine
It was the rise of Platner, far more than the downfall, that tells us much about the energy in the Democratic Party today, which has also been exemplified by the success of Zohran Mamdani and other socialists and super progressives in mayoral, House, and Senate races. These candidates’ platforms can almost be summed up by those four piquant words from the closing paragraph of the ousted oysterman’s letter Friday giving up the Senate nomination he had so easily won, which I now repeat because, my goodness, who ends a campaign that way: “F*ck ICE. Free Palestine.”
That wave among the Democrats points to the two biggest questions facing Democrats in Maine: Will the party back another Senate candidate from its radical, populist wing? And could a candidate like that take out the popular incumbent, GOP senator Susan Collins?
Platner had a unique charisma, and the talent scouts who discovered him had things at least half right: a certain hard core was going to stick with him no matter what. But the hard core was certainly overrepresented in the primary vote. Still, Platner post-withdrawal represents a whole second set of problems: his endorsement of a new candidate, if he gives it, is both a curse and a blessing. There's no question it will give the new candidate a good part of the hard core that voted for him in the primary, but it will also mean that candidate has been endorsed by a rapist.The other factor for Halperin is Susan Collins:
Susan Collins has developed a political reputation that few senators of either party enjoy: She consistently performs better at the ballot box than many analysts expect and polls project.
Her 2020 reelection campaign remains seared into the minds of both Chuck Schumer, the Democrats’ Senate leader, and Collins herself. For much of that race, public polling showed Democratic nominee Sara Gideon leading. In the closing days, the RealClearPolitics polling average had Gideon ahead by roughly 6 percentage points. On Election Day, Collins won by more than 8 points, a margin and victory that became one of the biggest polling surprises of the 2020 cycle.
This is one more reason I question why Real Clear Politics has the reputation it does, although to its credit, RCP linked Halperin's essay. But as we've also seen here from clips of his YouTube channel, Halperin is also skeptical of the Democrat replacement field:
Running statewide is a little like launching a Broadway show. Opening night arrives whether you’ve finished rehearsing or not. And based on the résumés, recent electoral failed pasts, and early efforts to replace Platner, the cast of characters vying for the Senate slot would struggle to earn supporting roles in a Bayonne, New Jersey, dinner theater production of Pippin, let alone take on an incumbent senator from a standing start.
The eventual nominee’s tasks include, but are not limited to: assembling—or reassembling—a political organization. Becoming well-known by voters across the state. Building a fundraising operation to pull in millions of dollars quickly. Preparing for debates on issues ranging from national security to AI to trade policy. Parrying the opposition research that will come from Team Collins. And replying to an endless stream of questions about the Platner of It All. This is sort of what Kamala Harris tried and failed to do in 2024.
He also sees an incongruity in the whole Platner phenomenon:
And it is worth noting, with irony and hilarity, that when Platner was tapped, he was created by Dr. Frankenstein consultants in order to appeal to both men and working-class voters. Yet the recent polling indicates his support was disproportionately from women and college-educated voters, the heart of the anti-Trump base of the party. To beat Collins, the new nominee is almost certainly going to have to do better than Platner did with men and the actual blue-collar folks of the Pine Tree State. Republicans are going to exploit every biographical element, past vote, and piquant quote to try to stop that from happening.
The information we can find on polling for November prior to Platne's withdrawal suggests Platner wasn't running away with the election himself:
Democratic upstart Graham Platner holds a slight lead over Republican incumbent Susan Collins in a general election matchup for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat should he win next week’s primary, according to a UMass Lowell/YouGov poll issued Thursday.
The survey of 650 likely Maine voters shows Platner has the support of 48% of respondents, compared to 43% for Collins, with 6% undecided and 2% supporting another candidate. A gender gap exists among polltakers who back each candidate: 54% of women and 42% of men support Platner, while Collins earns the support of 35% of women and 51% of men.
The survey found 43% of respondents have a favorable view of Platner, while 41% view him unfavorably, 14% have no opinion of him and 2% have never heard of him. Thirty-six percent of respondents view Collins favorably compared to 53% of respondents who view her unfavorably, while 11% have no opinion of her.
And we need to keep in mind Collins's history of outperforming the polls -- in 2020, by 14%. This would confirm the speculation that Democrats engineered the rape allegation so that Platner could be forced out before the deadline to find his replacement; Republicans would have preferred the whole thing come out much later.But you know what? I'm really starting to root for my fellow Bethesdan, Mark Halperin.
