Sunday, March 7, 2021

The Godfather Part II: Allegory Of The Patriarchy

Last night we watched The Godfather Part II on TV. i reflected on it overnight and looked it up on Wikipedia this morning. Wikipedia says it's one of the greatest films of all time. Yeah, and Joe Biden's Abraham Lincoln.

The film wasn't even into the final credits when I realized it was an allegoery of the Patriarchy, with various jabs thrown at the Catholic Church. Wikipedia's plot summary misses the point. The story arc involves the careers -- or more specifically, the inescapable, Patriarchical character flaws of Vito Corleone, the original Godfather of Part I, and his son Michael. Vito must leave Sicily as a boy of 14 when the local Mafia boss, Don Ciccio, kills his father and sets about to exterminate all the sons of the family from the justified fear that if they survive, they'll avenge their father and kill Don Ciccio.

Vito, basically a good guy, rises in the New York Mafia and is gradually corrupted. By the 1920s, he's prosperous enough to return to Sicily to avenge his father and brothers and murder Don Ciccio. This is a key element of the story that Wikipedia completely ignores.

By the 1950s, it's become plain that Vito's older son, Fredo, isn't smart enough to succeed Vito and take over the family. His younger son, Michael, becomes the head. The first scene in Part II covers a party at Lake Tahoe, where Michael lives, to celebrate his son's first communion. It's significnnt that the camera focuses on the way the sacrament is administered, the old-fashioned intinction, in Latin, on the tongue, with an acolyte holding a paten.

In a post-Conciliar world, this is a statement about the Church that's frequently repeated throughout the film -- quaint, supersitious, out of touch, obsolete, an enabler of every hypocrisy -- and Patriarchical.

The plot device that drives Part II is that Michael, young and in many ways progressive and forward-looking, must nevertheless revert to his Sicilian roots and avenge the betrayal of Hyman Roth, a putative ally of the Corleone family, when Michael correctly intuits that Roth is behind an attempted assassination of Michael and his family.

At this point, the film focuses on Michael's wife, Kay, who is played by Diane Keaton, herself Hollywood artsy royalty. Kay's character is someone we've come to recognize in subsequent decades, an upper-class woman with The Look, in total contrast to Michael's trashy-flashy sister, Connie. Indeed, Kay in the film is hard to distinguish in style and demeanor from Jen Psaki in real life. In the midst of Michael's plot to rub out Hyman Roth and a Senate invetigation of the Corleone family, Kay decides to abjure the mob life.

The question in my mind, which the film does nothing to answer, is what attracted the well-bred, tastefully dressed Kay to the mob life in the first place. There's a reference in one scene to a promise Michael made to Kay that the Corleones would be "legitimate" within five years of their marriage, which hasn't taken place after seven. But this is certainly an indication that Kay knew full well what she was marrying into, and there's no indication that she was ever disssatisfied with the lifestyle of royalty.

Instead, pregnant with what both she and Michael believe is a son at the time of the film's main action, she decides to abort the baby. The implication, not fully articulated, seems to be that she wants to end this Sicilian cycle of murder and revenge by killing off the Patriarchical lineage, except that they've already had a son and a daughter.

When she tells Michael that she plans to divorce him and take the surviving kids, Michel's reaction is predictably Sicilian, violent, and Patriarchical. Kay becomes the suffering victim and another icon of post-1970s conventional feminism, stigmatized by her assertions of freedom in divorce and abortion. In both instances, the unstated but clear message is that the Roman Catholic Church is a force of repression and an enabler of hypocrisy.

Again, the problem I have is the root of Kay's rebellion. Every indication is that what she wants is to take the children with her and maintain her lifestyle -- which of course has been and will always be financed by Mafia actitities -- but just leave behind the inconvenience of Michael, whom she apparently married in the full understanding of who he was and how he earned his living. In other words, her decision is frivolous.

It also amounts, in Catholic theology, to a substitution of private judgment. I think mature people, finding themselves in situations they'd pretty much chosen in full recognition of what they were choosing, would be driven to some type of serious self-reexamination, and this would certainly involve somthing more than selecting the best divorce attorney.

A big problem with the film is it doesn't go there. Not anywhere close.

Saturday, March 6, 2021

Neanderthals

When I was taking anthropology as an undergraduate, I learned that there was, at least at the time, a great deal of controversy over whether there was such a thing as a Neanderthal man. One point that was made was that the bone structure of such individuals was hard to distinguish from human bones of people with hyperthyroid conditions. More recently, I read, or hear on TV or something, that we all have Neanderthal DNA, except we all also have pumpkin DNA, so I'm not sure what any of this proves.

White House Press Secretary Psaki did little to clarify this yesterday in defendng President Biden's remarks about two governors:

MS. PSAKI: The behavior of a Neanderthal, just to be very clear. The behavior of.

But wait a moment. All we know about Neanderthals has to do with some bones and stone tools and such. What on earth do we know about Neanderthal behavior?

But then I thought about another N word. What if Biden called someone the other N word? Would it mitigate anything if Secretary Psaki said he was referring only to the behavior of a _____? And if you think about it, if we know nothing about Neandetthal behavior anyhow, aren't we just referring to a fantasy stereotype?

Actually, to refer to a "Neanderthal" is implicitly to cite the unproven Darwinian model by which the course of human history leads inevitably to us just as we are. Neanderthals are some not-quite-there precursor of our current state of human perfection. It's one more manifestation of the Whig Interpretation of History.

One thing we can probably say is that the "science" of Neanderthals is not settled, although we might point to a reified scheme of human evolution as something "scientific" that makes us feel comfortable about what we are.

But the "science" of COVID is just as unsettled. All the controversy about Biden's use of the term as in effect a racial slur simply illuminates the real issue.

Friday, March 5, 2021

Amid Plunging COVID Stats, Gov Newsom Says Wear Two Masks

One puzzling phenomenon in recent weeks has been that Gov Newsom, facing a likely recall election this fall, with vaccinations underway, and with pandemic statistics plummeting, has made little change in his, or the state's, COVID messaging. In fact, in a clear rebuke to Texas, Florida, Mississippi, and other states, he's now recommending that Californians wear two masks, not one.

“We are encouraging people basically to double down on mask wearing, particularly in light of all of what I would argue is bad information coming from at least four states in this country,” Newsom said. “We will not be walking down their path. We’re mindful of your health and our future.”

Newsom’s remarks come after Mississippi and Texas governors ended their mask mandates.

But Newsom recently faced criticism after making a Tik Tok video from inside a Fresno restaurant, where indoor dining is not allowed.

What's puzzling is that it might be appropriate to recommend two masks at times like late last year, when cases were surging and additional preventive measures might seem reasonable -- but instead, Newsom closed barber shops and hair salons, putting people out of work during the holidays, with no perceptible effect on the disease.

Public orders to avoid holiday "gstherings" also seem to have had no perceptible result, with no surge in cases seven to 10 days after New Year's, while cases continued to decline during and after the Super Bowl and Presidents' Day weekends.

In addition, for whatever reason, the PSAs that featured ladies with various homespun messages advocating social isolation scribbled on their masks seem t\o have disappeared from Facebook.

But Newsom seems to be stuck someplace in last November. The problem I see, just handicapping the likely future course of the pandemic, is that conditions on the ground will likely continue to improve, but there will be little benefit to Californians even if they're allowed to do things like eat indoors with most restaurant seats blocked off.

But the continuing contrast will be in states like Texas and Florida, where such controls are abolished or minimal, while their statistics are no worse than California's.

This has got to be a losing bet.

Thursday, March 4, 2021

So Which Is It?

On Tuesday, Texas Gov Abbott and Mississippi Gov Reeves eliminated all state-mandated COVID restrictions within their states. President Biden promptly called them Neanderthals.

His earlier message was:

"When do I think things will get back to normal? I've been cautioned not to give an answer to that because we don't know for sure. But my hope is, by this time next year, we're going to be back to normal," Biden told reporters at the White House.

Dr Fauci disagreed.

“I don’t think we’re going to be completely normal a year from now,” Fauci said. “But I hope we’re well on the way to normality so that we can ultimately get the world protected at the same time as we get economic recovery so that all the unintended consequences of shutting down begin to normalize, including other health issues that have arisen because of the shutdown.”

Both Fauci and Biden are sorta-kinda in any case, leaving themselves plenty of room to move the goalposts as they choose.

Meanwhile, if policies begin to follow the data as it's emerging, the authorities will have little choice but to open up, however reluctantly. The Los Angeles County health department announced yesterday

L.A. County is very close to meeting the metric thresholds for the less restrictive red tier in the State's Blueprint for a Safety Economy. This week, L.A. County's adjusted case rate dropped to 7.2 new cases per 100,000 people and the test positivity rate is 3.5%. Our case rate needs to remain at or below 7 new cases per 100,000 residents for two consecutive weeks to move to the less restrictive red tier. If L.A. County moves into the red tier next week and stays in that tier for two consecutive weeks, schools will then be eligible to reopen in-person learning for students in grades 7 through 12.

However, the red tier is still highly restrictive.

The most significant difference between the purple and red tiers is that in the red tier, restaurants, museums and movie theaters can reopen indoors, at 25 percent capacity or 100 people — whichever is fewer. Gyms can reopen indoors at 10 percent capacity. (In the purple tier, all of those are allowed to operate outdoors only.)

Bars and breweries — businesses that serve alcohol but not food — must remain closed. In both the purple and red tiers, though, wineries can operate outdoors only.

It took the US Supreme Court to force California to allow churches the same operating conditions as big-box stores in the purple tier.

The problem for authorities that want to continue highly restrictive COVID controls will be that the data hasn't supported such controls. The statistics spiked in late 2020, even when Californians had near 100% compliance -- and when they were allowed to come back inside churches, they in fact peaked and declined. There was no new post-holiday surge -- the peak came in early January, when by normal assumptions, an even bigger post-New Year surge would have shown up a few days after that.

I think at this point that the received COVID narrative is on shaky ground. Yesterday I quoted an article where an epidemiologist wasn't sure what's caused the sudden decline in COVID statistics -- the part he didn't mention is that nobody's sure what drove the surge, either.

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

The Bottom Drops Out Of Covid

The chart above gives the daily average of new COVID cases reported to the US CDC as of this week. The level now is basically what it was last summer, before new restrictions were imposed by various state authorities in the fall. From Monday's LA County health department press release:

The County is steadily making progress in reducing the average number of daily new cases of COVID-19. The seven-day average number of cases by episode date has now decreased to less than 1,000 per day.

There are 1,578 people with COVID-19 currently hospitalized and 31% of these people are in the ICU. Testing results are available for nearly 5,840,000 individuals with 19% of people testing positive. Today's daily test positivity rate is 2.5%.

Public Health has not yet seen any increases due to gatherings that may have happened during the Super Bowl and Presidents Day weekend.

This trend hasn't had much media coverage. In particular, as the LA County press release notes, the predicted surge following the holidays didn't occur, and the decline throughout the last two months is probably not due to vaccinations. This story reports,

Positive Covid tests skyrocketed throughout the fall and winter, with positive tests reaching a high of just under 300,000 one day in early January.

Following that peak, cases tumbled downward in what was effectively an unbroken decline in positive test results for two months. Daily cases late last week reached levels not seen since October. The decline appears to have leveled off, but rates remain significantly lower than at the beginning of January.

. . . The welcome news has nevertheless been perplexing for many scientists who are struggling to explain why Covid cases are plunging so sharply.

Robert Cook, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Florida, admitted that it's "hard to explain exactly what is the contributing the most" to the plunge.

One thng I've noted is that up to now, there had been no change in the public service ads on Facebook, with just the standard wear-a-mask-stop-the-spread message. But this morning, I could find no PSAs at all. Even so, in California, 98% of the population had been wearing masks and cooperating with other measures since at least last fall. As of now, vaccinations here are still only available to front-line workers and over-65s, so I don't believe vaccine has been a factor in the decline.

For now, I'll chalk this up to yet another failure of the COVID conventional wisdom promoted by the pubic health establishment and the media. The predictions of "dark winter" and post-holiday surges simply weren't borne out. We'll have to see what else develops in coming days and weeks.

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

What's Happening To Poor Andrew Cuomo?

In today's headliness: NY AG to launch Cuomo ‘harass’ probe, admin lawyers up on nursing home scandal

Lower Down: Covid-19: The U.S. Is Edging Toward Normal, Alarming Some Officials

Do you see a connection? I do.

Let's back up. As Limbaugh used to say, politics is Hollywood for ugly people. Translation: an ugly guy can get a lot more action in elective office than out of it. There's nothing unique about Andrew Cuomo. In fact, the lizard people who run the planet like it that way, just as the ancient emperors in Rome and Persia did: if a procurator was corrupt, they'd tolerate it until it was convenient to remove him for corruption.

Next, I don't think the current US political leadership is runnng anything directly. Speaker Pelosi and President Biden are both generally assumed to be working under seriously impaired judgment. They're surrounded and cosseted by handlers, with a few hovering in the background who are clued in to what's happening, much better than they are themselves.They say and do what they're told. In this case, they and their handlers have been told it's convenient to remove Cuomo -- they've been told, in fact, to be shocked, shocked.

Why? Cuomo said let's play strip poker? He blocked some lady going out the door and kissed her? It's been alleged that Gropin' Joe's done far worse. Let's not even think about Slick Willie. The problem isn't that Cuomo's a low-level, garden-variety horndog. There's got to be something else that's got the lizard people really, really pissed off. Consider that just weeks ago, he was riding high on a book deal where his ghostwriter told us how great a job he did handling COVID as governor. He and Fauci were on CNN together congratulating each other.

I do think the problem for the lizard people is in fact COVID, but it isn't the nursing homes. Who are the lizard people in this case? Two I would nominate are Bill Gates and Laurene Powell Jobs. If one of their handlers called the White House, you can be certain one of Biden's handlers would pick up the phone.

What would Bill Gates be pissed off about? (I assume Mrs Jobs is generally aligned with Gates as well.) Gates recently said wealthy countries shoud switch to 100% synthetic beef. He's on climate change like white on rice, though I believe he has his doubts about rice.

But let's recall that farting cows are only part of the climate change agenda. We'll have to do a lot more than get rid of cattle to fix the climate, and as a clued-in lizard person, Gates must certainly be aware of this. Received opinion among the climate crazies, as we saw in yesterday's post, is that while we have to eliminate gas powered cars by 2035, we've also got to reduce world population by 2100. That's less than 80 years from now. Free condoms and Planned Parenthood aren't gonna cut it if we're gonna make that goal.

I think people with this mindset had enormous expectations for COVID that were never remotely met. They relied on the Imperial College model, it was gonna be the Black Death, throw out your dead every morning, mass graves in public parks. The hospital ships would be feckless to deal with the sick and dying. This would be the fulfillment of their population-reduction fantasy, or at least a very good start.

I don't think it ever quite registered with the likes of Bill Gates that the COVID pandemic wasn't working out that way -- and it's taken them a year to realize things in the US, as the headline says, are edging back to normal (which has some officials alarmed). Not only that, but the courts, after a slow start, have begun to recognize again the existence of natural rights, and they're setting precedents that will make it more difficult, when the time comes, to nominate large segments of the population to be humanely put down in the name of climate change, since COVID didn't do the job.

Cuomo was the face of COVID. It didn't help, though, that he lost some of the key cases that have got things headed back to normal. He was getting prizes for the great job he was doing just a few weeks ago. But as far as Gates and those of his mindset are concerned, he's blown it. He's the current scapegoat for the failure of that part of the agenda.

Monday, March 1, 2021

Partial Victory Against New York Curfew

A New York state judge issued a preliminary injunction Saturday night preventing the state from enforcing its COVID curfew against a group of bars and restaurants who are suing Gov Cuomo, demanding that he allow them access to the scientific data supporting such a curfew. When the state dithered, the judge issued the injunction.

But the details are less important than what we're beginning to see, that what I've predicted will be a long legal and political battle to get back to ordinary life is gaining traction, and it appears that it's having more success in rhw US than in many other parts of the world. That the New York skirmish should be over a curfew is, I think, significant. Commentators have been asking snce they became popular late last year why curfews do anything to prevent the spread of COVID, and they have a point.

Actually, I don't think COVID is the reason for these curfews. I've been saying all along that curfews amount to a de facto ban on fornication, and I'm not just being cute. I said last week that the agenda behind COVID restrictions is an inchoate, not fully articulated set of policy objectives stemming from radical environmentalism, radical feminism, old-fashined Stalinism, eugenics, and a great deal else, but the practical tendency of emergency COVID decress has been to create an environment more or less satisfactory to advocates of this agenda, and they'll fight to maintain the New Normal.

I asked last week if anyone's aware of a single manifesto for this agenda, and so far, I haven''t learned of any. But the pieces are out there. One part of the agenda is radical environmentalism, and that definitely includes not just population control, but population reduction. For example,

In all the talk of tackling environmental problems such as climate change, the issue of population growth often escapes attention. Politicians don’t like talking about it. By and large, neither do environmentalists – but former Greens leader Bob Brown has bucked that trend.

Brown recently declared the world’s population must start to decline before 2100, telling The Australian newspaper:

We are already using more than what the planet can supply and we use more than the living fabric of the planet in supply. That’s why we wake up every day to fewer fisheries, less forests, more extinctions and so on. The human herd at eight billion is the greatest herd of mammals ever on this planet and it is unsustainable to have that growing.

Research suggests our species has far exceeded its fair share of the planetary bounty, and Brown is right to call for the global population to peak. It is high time others joined the chorus – not only other environmentalists, but those concerned with international development and human rights.

Er, human rights? How on earth do these people expect to reduce the world's population by 2100 except by some form of mass extermination? Remember that Zyklon B was promoted as a humane solution to just such a problem not all that long ago.

But this will take baby steps. One important development has been not just to normalize, but to privilege transsexualism. While I can't imagine Dr Rachel Levine becoming Playmate of the Month anytime soon, clearly the idea in principle is to seed sterile females into the population to control the birth rate. Given the likelihood of success with that strategy, we can't rule out bans on fornication as a potentially more effective plan. Acording to the Brookings Institution,

When the public health crisis first took hold, some people playfully speculated that there would be a spike in births in nine months, as people were “stuck home” with their romantic partners. Such speculation is based on persistent myths about birth spikes occurring nine months after blizzards or major electricity blackouts. As it turns out, those stories tend not to hold up to statistical examination (Udry, 1970). But the COVID-19 crisis is amounting to much more than a temporary stay-at-home order. It is leading to tremendous economic loss, uncertainty, and insecurity. That is why birth rates will tumble.

It's not a bug, it's a feature. Baby steps.