What's Really Going On In Ceuta?

The official version of the Ceuta crisis is that it's over, the migrants have mostly turned around and gone home, everything's back to normal. In reality, it's very difficult to check. Yesterday, I embedded an X post from the UK Spanish embassy that said as of this past Friday, July 31, they'd mostly gone back home. If this is the case, then the photos and videos of the migrants overrunning tbe streets should date almost entirely from Thursday, July 30.

However, I embedded another X post yesterday from the UK's Tommy Robinson dated Saturday, August 1, apparently filmed the day before, that shows significant numbers of migrants still on the streets. The Nick Shirley video embeddded above, by far the most comprehensive report from the crisis, speaks of Juy 31 in the past tense, so I think it's reasonable to assume it was filmed over the weekend and released yesterday. Although it has some shots of migrant groups being escorted by Spanish guardsmen, there are many more of migrants still wandering the streets in small groups. According to Reuters as of yesterday,

Spain estimates that about 69,500 migrants have returned to Morocco over the past four days, exceeding initial estimates of around 50,000 arrivals in Ceuta on Thursday. The official death toll on the Spanish side of the border stands at 72, with 11 deaths on the Moroccan side.

. . . Ceuta's leader Juan Jesus Vivas told broadcaster Telecinco between 3,000 and 5,000 migrants remained in the enclave, adding that its two migrant reception centres — one for adults ​and another for minors — had "collapsed".

It's been clear throughout the crisis that the numbers released by government sources are intended to minimize the problem and create an impression that it's been solved. The actual numbers remaining are likely much higher than these estimates. But farther down, the piece carries information on how the invasion was organized:

[Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares] said Morocco had immediately offered police support and had not attached conditions to its cooperation, allowing for the ‌rapid return ⁠of most of those who crossed.

But Ceuta's Vivas was critical of Rabat, saying there was a widespread perception within Ceuta that it had allowed — if not orchestrated — the crisis.

"Morocco has shown us that it isn't reliable. There's no alternative but to put in place whatever means are necessary to ensure it cannot do this again," Vivas told newspaper El Pais.

Morocco's Interior Ministry on Sunday blamed the surge on misinformation on social media, human trafficking networks and misinterpretation of a Spanish court ruling banning immediate ​returns of migrants intercepted at sea. That ​was in line with Madrid's official ⁠view.

According to reports by El Pais and Cadena SER radio, citing officials familiar with the matter, Spanish intelligence services have concluded that Morocco did not plan the mass crossing, but allowed it to happen.

Moroccan border controls were gradually relaxed during July and were allegedly removed as crowds surged toward the Tarajal crossing during Morocco's Throne Day holiday, the ​reports said.

The UK Guardian opens up the possibility of another explaination:

But there has also been speculation that the Moroccan authorities may have opened the border to signal their displeasure at Sánchez’s recent visit to Algeria, which supports efforts to free the disputed territory of Western Sahara from Moroccan occupation.

Morocco’s ambassador to Spain, Karima Benyaich Millán, said Rabat was not happy about the mass crossing, adding that it hoped those in Ceuta would return.

Moroccan government sources told the Europa Press news agency that the surge of people entering Ceuta was down to “criminal organisations” and insisted that Rabat’s cooperation with Spain remained “exemplary”.

In May 2021, Rabat loosened border controls – allowing 10,000 people to cross into Ceuta over the course of two days – during a diplomatic standoff triggered after Madrid allowed a Western Sahara independence leader to be treated for Covid-19 in Spain.

The crisis has become an extremely sensitive issue for the EU:

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s migration policies have weathered withering criticism as leaders from across the European Union met Tuesday following last week’s rush of migrants to the Spanish territory of Ceuta in North Africa. /p>

The sudden arrival of 72,000 migrants on Thursday and Friday sparked a humanitarian crisis in Ceuta and reignited the immigration debate in the 27-nation bloc, though most of the migrants soon went back. More than 80 migrants died, including some who drowned or were trampled in a stampede to cross a breakwater barrier, according to Spanish and Moroccan authorities.

Notice how, in the space of a few days, the estimate of migrants has crept upward from 50,000 to 72,000. This would also affect the number remaining in Ceuta if "most" of the 72,000 have gone back; it seems much more likely that those remaining are still in five digits.

While ministers seemed to rally back around Sanchez after meeting Tuesday, Europe displayed a deeply damaging disunity in the aftermath of Ceuta as it faces security threats from Moscow, instability with Washington and economic tension with Beijing, said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific and Middle East for the financial firm Natixis.

“Europe has shown weakness again,” she said. “Massive weakness.”

EU leaders quickly pounced on Sanchez once videos from Ceuta went viral. Many blamed the incident on his government's progressive policies and publicly rallied for new border checks at sea, air and land ports of entry.

So far, only Anne Applebaum at The Atlantic has blamed the Ceuta crisis on the far right.