Monday, August 3, 2026

Ceuta: Nothing To See Here

Anne Applebaum, a Yale legacy, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, board member of the National Endowment for Democracy and Renew Democracy Initiative, editorial board member of The American Interest and the Journal of Democracy, member of the international board of directors of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, and former Senior Adjunct Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), where she co-led a major initiative aimed at countering Russian disinformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), has delivered the establishment line on Ceuta at The Atlantic, a pet project of Laurene Powell Jobs, whose net worth is estimated at $11 to $14 billion: The Far Right Is Distorting Ceuta.

Mostly young, mostly male Moroccans crawling onto beaches, climbing hills, scaling walls, jumping over fences, surging past police in order to get into Europe: The photographs and videos that emerged from Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in North Africa, on July 29 and 30 looked very much like migrant-terror videos, deliberately designed to be broadcast by the international far right. So closely did this incident resemble the “invasion” that MAGA and its European friends have long said is under way that it was hard not to suspect that it had been orchestrated.

Aha! There you have it! Shadowy forces connected to the far right have cooked this up as a provocation!

Last week, according to El Pais as well as other Spanish, international, and Moroccan media outlets, many Moroccans saw a TikTok video nevertheless claiming that “the Spanish border is open and you can cross without papers,” meaning they could reach the European continent. . . . Other messages, many of which have now disappeared, told people where to buy wet suits, flippers, goggles, floats, and even waterproof bags for documents and cellphones. Screenshots from Google Maps told them which sections of the Ceuta beach might have fewer police. Moroccan border guards were either unwilling or unable to stop them.

. . . Vice President Vance posted a link to a wildly dishonest Fox News segment that incorrectly described the migrants arriving in “Northern Spain” rather than Northern Africa. “Thank God,” he wrote, “@POTUS was elected and our country’s border no longer looks like this.” Others made more specific threats. Robert Jenrick, a high-profile member of Reform, the British far-right party, wrote that “Ceuta is our future if we don’t secure our border. These men are on their way to Calais.” Nigel Farage, the Reform Party leader, posted a video also claiming that the Moroccans were en route to Britain. Alice Weidel, the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), declared that “Germany is the likely destination.”

These were lies. The Moroccans who swam to Ceuta were never going to make it to Britain, Germany, or anywhere else in Europe.

On the other hand, the Spanish government itself blames traffickers:

Spain’s Interior Ministry argued an earlier court ruling is behind the latest influx, stating it “believes that human trafficking networks are exploiting a court ruling to encourage the flow of undocumented migrants, mostly young people.”

In addition, reports dating well before last week's crisis in Ceuta make it plain that, contra Ms Applebaum, migrants can and do cross the Strait of Gibraltar and make it to the European mainland, just as they cross the English Channel:

Morocco is a primary gateway for thousands of Africans seeking to reach Europe. At its narrowest point, the Strait of Gibraltar is 14 kilometers (9 miles) wide.

Most migrants trying to reach Spain do so by sea, but there have been several incidents where migrants have scaled the border fences between Morocco and Spain's North African exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.

As the European Union's only territories on the African continent, migrants can claim asylum in either exclave.

So far this year [2019], more than 15,000 people have made it to Spain, according to estimates from the International Organization for Migration (IOM). However, more than 200 have died in the attempt.

The standard line, repeated by Ms Applebaum, is that the migrants have mostly turned around and returned to Morocco:

More to the point, nearly all of those who swam over the border had returned to Morocco by Sunday morning. The Spanish government negotiated their return with the Moroccan government.

But an on-the-ground report indicates that as of Saturday, migrants still overwhelmed the city:

Locals on the ground immediately called it a lie. One Ceuta resident posted that around 50,000 invaders remained, the city was collapsed, and the official numbers were pure spin. Video filmed that same afternoon showed streets still packed, nothing like the “most have left” story.

There can be little question that the Ceuta crisis is an embarrassment to the Spanish government, and so far, Ms Applebaum's position that it was engineered by the "far right", or as Elon Musk would put it, people with normal views, appears tp be unique:

It remains unclear who created the viral posts that encouraged the would-be migrants to believe that they could get to Europe from Ceuta. But those who want to weaken the Spanish government, boost the European far right, and create turmoil inside the EU lost little time in promoting the photographs as soon as they arrived.

But the current reponse by the EU is just kabuki:

Italy said on Friday it ‌was suspending the European Union's border-free Schengen arrangements with Spain for one month in response to a mass influx of migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta from neighbouring Morocco.

. . . Critics of Meloni's right-wing government dismissed the new border checks as largely symbolic, saying there was no indication that migrants arriving in Ceuta had any desire to travel onwards to Italy. Meloni's coalition, which came to power in 2022 promising to reduce illegal immigration, has faced strong pressure from ⁠a new far-right party led by former army general Roberto Vannacci, whose anti-migrant rhetoric has resonated with some voters.

With migration once again dominating headlines, the government has sought to promote a tough stance on security, however centre-left opponents accused ⁠the government of pandering to populists and undermining ties with Spain.

I see, it's the "far right" against the "centre-left". But don't worry, everything's under control.

posted by test @ August 03, 2026   0 Comments