Yet Another New COVID Narrative

Up until a point a few weeks ago, the COVID narrative had been the vaccines are highly effective, and if the pandemic continues at all, it's because too many people are unwilling to be vaccinated. However, the CDC itself began to undermine this by announcing that vaccinated people could still transmit the virus and endorsing indoor masks again, although masks had proven ineffective throughout 2020.

Now the narrative has shifted yet again, and the story now is the vaccines aren't as effective as we'd been saying, and now we need a booster. I noted in Sunday's post that Dr Scott Gottlieb has reversed his previous prediction on the delta variant, is now saying New York and Connecticut will have a big surge, and he's on board with the booster.

Dr Fauci is saying this as well, as of the latest Sunday talks:

Sunday, during an appearance on CNN, Biden medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci offered the possibility that a three-dose regimen may be the proper regimen for immunization against the coronavirus.

Fauci told CNN’s Jim Acosta that the goal continues to be more vaccinations.

“Well, to some extent, that’s indirect,” he explained. “We need the boost because ultimately it may turn out, Jim, that the ultimate proper immunization regimen is a three-dose regimen. Remember, we made it a two-dose regimen. We were dealing with an emergent situation. . ."

The problem is that they'd been saying two shots, but now they mean three. When will they get to four? And what about the J&J vaccine, where one was enough? Do those people need two? Or three? Each time they change the story, they lose credibility. For me, going through the two-shot regimen, having to hassle two appointments, going through the highly stressful cattle pen routine twice, and then a couple days of feeling woozy with the side effects, was bad enough. Now all of a sudden I have to do it again.

And I'm not the only one:

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said on Sunday that his administration is getting “mixed messagings” from the Biden White House when it comes to COVID-19 booster shots.

“I mean we're getting some mixed messagings out of the administration, out of the CDC, the FDA and the White House and, you know we need clear guidance on these booster shots because it undermines the credibility of it,” Hogan said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

. . . The Biden administration had initially signaled that individuals who had received both doses of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccine would be eligible for a booster shot starting in September.

. . . However, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walenksy and Janet Woodcock, the acting commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), reportedly met White House coronavirus coordinator Jeff Zients to say that only some people who received the Pfizer vaccine may now only be eligible currently for the third shot of the COVID-19 vaccine.

It's becoming clearer that the confusion is a result of the public health establishment's need to coordinate with the Biden administration's political message, as the failure of successive COVID narratives has been another driver of Biden's sinking popularity. According to Politico,

Now, frustration with the disease’s resurgence — coming at the same time as the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan — appears to be a factor softening Biden’s previously stable approval ratings and adding to Democrats’ worries about retaining their slim majority in the House and Senate after the 2022 congressional elections.

The months ahead will undoubtedly be a mix of advances and setbacks. The political challenge for Biden and the public health system will be to communicate a sense of progress and momentum even without the benefit of a clear “turning point.”

The overall theme of the piece is that Biden campaigned in 2020 as someone who would solve COVID, but COVID isn't being solved. In effect, the problem for Biden, Fauci, and Walensky is to change the narrative so people don't expect a solution.

“People are still in denial,” said Celine Gounder, an infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist at NYU and Bellevue Hospital, who advised the Biden transition team. “The sooner people accept the changes in the way we live… the sooner we can get to the new normal.”

The problem is that nobody currently running the show -- any show around Biden -- knows what they're doing. What's that "new normal" going to be? If it changes from week to week, how can we accept it?

The COVID Narrative Will Be Next To Collapse

I've mentioned Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA Commissioner, several times here as a voice of relative stability vis-a-vis the shifting explanations of Drs Fauci and Walensky. Most recently, I've noted that he predicted the current delta wave would peak by mid-September, which seems to be the case.

But suddenly, he's now with the program.

Maybe the curve that seems to be peaking now isn't the real delta surge, he now says.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb on Friday predicted Northeastern states, including New York and Connecticut, will experience another jump in Covid cases tied to the highly transmissible delta variant.

“I think there’s sort of a perception that we’re sort of through this delta wave here in the Northeast because we’ve seen delta cases go up and go down in places like the New York metropolitan region. We’re also seeing [test] positive come down,” the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“I don’t think that that was the true delta wave. I think that that was a delta warning. I think our true delta wave is going to start to build after Labor Day here in the Northeast and the northern part of the country,” added Gottlieb, who now serves on the board of Covid vaccine maker Pfizer.

So his own remarks a month ago about delta peaking after Labor Day are now inoperative? Well, fine. Let's say he's right this time, and New York ain't seen nothin' yet. But the percent of New Yorkers with at least one vaccine dose is 67.9%, those with two doses is 60.6%, about as high as any US state. Even so, it sounds like he has little confidence this will prevent a "true delta wave" after Labor Day. And remember, the public health establishment was telling us the vaccines are effective against variants, at least up to a couple months ago.

Now he's saying, in the same interview, "The first two doses were provided so close together that they probably really served as two primes. . . . This third dose is probably going to serve as a true booster in terms of inducing immune memory and. . . a more durable response".

In other words, The Science changes from week to week, depending on what didn't turn out to be true last week. The Babylon Bee is spot on: To Defeat Delta Variant, Experts Recommend Doing All The Things That Didn't Work The First Time

"We are going to lock down, wear masks, and social distance, all of which didn't work, but hey. It's worth trying again," said Dr. Anthony Fauci in a television interview this morning. "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. That's what they taught us in science school. Look at my lab coat. It's white. Do you like it? It has pockets."

. . . At publishing time, experts had clarified that while we're going to be doing the same things that didn't work over and over again, we're going to be doing them harder this time.

In fact, a major component of the official response all along has been to blame the public for not doing the things that don't work hard enough, while the elites continue to disregard them. Most recently, Samantha Power, about as close to a lizard person as you can get, was photographed on Amtrak miswearing her mask. If she weren't a lizard person, the conductor would eject her from the train at the next stop.

Federal law requires all customers and employees to wear a mask at all times while onboard trains and in stations, regardless of vaccination status or state or local laws. Refusing to wear a mask is a violation of federal law; passengers may be subject to penalties under federal law, denied boarding, removed from the train and banned from future travel in the event of noncompliance.

That is, unless you're Samantha Power. (A novelist couldn't get away with giving her that name.) Yet again, if the elites seriously believed masks, vaccinations, lockdowns, and whatever else had any effect on their risks of contracting COVID, they'd adhere to those measures. Clearly they don't.

We need a new approach. Biden's gonna give a big address on COVID after the holiday. One thing we won't hear from him is anything new, it will almost certainly contain just a new round of scolding and harangue about masks and vax.

Isn't the narrative beginning to acquire a certain mythic element? The nation is sick. It must be healed. What is the uncleanliness that has brought this disease upon us? It's the plebs, the dirty, racist plebs, who refuse the vax and the mask.

This isn't working.

Biden's Current Problem

Biden's handlers are clearly taking note of recent polls, and I assume other internal surverys are showing a perception that he's isolated and out of touch. So we see him getting out of the White House, in this photo with sleeves rolled up and jacketless (and I assume his greeters were informed of this dress code prior to his arrival), on the go.

The problem is that when he does this kind of thing, there's always the off key note -- in this case, the cheat sheets in his back pocket, in the Delaware dignified transfer op, the compulsive watch checking. And his eyes are always just slits.

He has Hillary's problem, the more people saw of her, the less there was to like. In his statements from the White House over the past week, he's been angry and callous, mostly refusing to answer questions. Apparently next week, he's going to start haranguing us about COVID again.

It isn't enough just to make him more visible when even the photo ops go wrong.

In early August, I was noticing that nothing was happening, maybe because everyone was on vacation. That changed in a hurry. Over the past few days, I've noticed we've been back to nothing happening again. I don't think I should get too comfortable with that.

Kabuki

Pardon me if, in the current atmosphere of false narrative piled on false narrative, I'm just the least bit skeptical of what's going on. We're being told via The Hill:

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Democrats should hit "pause" on President Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending package, firing a significant warning shot at his party’s top legislative priority.

Manchin, during remarks this week at a West Virginia Chamber of Commerce event pointed to concerns about “runaway inflation,” the delta variant of the coronavirus and a botched withdrawal in Afghanistan to float slowing down what is the centerpiece of Biden's economic agenda.

. . . "I know they're going to go nuts right now ... because what I said is going to all my caucus in Washington," Manchin added, referring to his Democratic colleagues. "But I'm thinking of it from the standpoint of where we are as a nation today."

He restated these views in, of all places, a Wall Street Journal op-ed. But he already knows "they're going to go nuts right now."

And AOC predictably went nuts:

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York slammed Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia after he came out against the price tag of a $3.5 trillion social spending bill and urged Democrats to slow down its passage.

The congresswoman tweeted that "'bipartisan corruption" and "fossil fuel bills" are "killing people."

But a web search this morning suggests that Speaker Pelosi has had nothong direct to say, and Sen Schumer is vague:

Speaking Thursday from a New York City where hours before rainwater had poured into subway tunnels and paralyzed public transit, Schumer called it “imperative” to pass the infrastructure and climate bills.

That story also says,

Democrats have also appeared to acknowledge they will need to write a bill smaller than $3.5 trillion in order to push it through the Senate. Lawmakers have said they want to hike taxes on corporations and the wealthy and increase IRS enforcement of existing tax rates, among other measures, to offset the spending.

I don't trust anyone. If Manchin were really not with the program, he'd simply switch parties. He's getting far more baksheesh playing the role he's got. That goes for AOC and the Squad as well.

False Narratives

An opinion piece from John Solomon makes a productive point:

The long saga of the Russia collusion scandal — during which law enforcement, media, political operatives and intelligence assets manufactured a two-year illusion of a Trump-Russia conspiracy that did not exist — raised questions about a new era of political warfare in which false realities could be foisted upon the American public.

The bungled, bloody U.S. exit from Afghanistan now has some fearing the Biden administration practiced deception by omission and commission to create a two-month false narrative that misled Congress and the American public by making the situation in and around Kabul look better than it was.

That Solomon should mention the Trump-Russia false narrative brings to mind two other ongoing false narratives, in addition to the one just discredited, that the Afghanistan mission was succeeding:

• The withdrawal from Afghanistan was a success
• The January 6 US Capitol demonstration was an insurrection,

So far, it's plain that Speaker Pelosi is simply ignoring calls from Republicans for a congressional investigation into the Afghanistan fiasco, which given recent revelations is metastasizing into a story of months-long coverup of the actual situation. Meanwhile, she's continuing to promote the investigation of the January 6 events, with the cooperation of two turncoat Republicans who are now facing the potential of expulsion from the House Republican Conference.

The overall problem with the false narratives is that they aren't credible, and so far, the mainstream media hasn't fully signed on. The actual numbers are too hard to ignore:

[T]he one thing Biden has been bragging about as his supposed great success was actually a colossal failure as well. The airlift may have gotten out 120,000 people total, but those were not mostly Afghan allies who we had sworn to protect.

According to NBC News, around 20,000 Afghans who had worked with the US government had applied for SIVs, and that was back in May. No doubt the number skyrocketed as it became clear the Taliban would prevail. When you add in their families, that number jumps to almost 75,000. In the end, we got out around 8,500, a tiny fraction of those we made promises to.

The difficulty increases when, if you recognize that only 8,500 legitimate visa holders were evacuated, the rest of the 120,000 were unvetted, something that's gradually being acknowledged, while it's also slowly being acknowledged that at least 100 Americans, and likely more, were also left behind. All of these represent the potential for bad headlines going forward.

The Biden-Pelosi strategy continues to be to rely on paper-thin congressional majorities to stay on course day to day, while hoping Afghanistan blows over and something or other can work in their favor. But going into the Labor Day weekend, which has traditionally been just the crowning event of the end-of-summer silly season, things don't look propitious for this approach.

Seriously, Where's Kamala?

What nobody's much noticed is that, with daily news items that call Biden's fitness into question, Kamala Harris's profile has gotten lower and lower.

Kamala Harris may have crashed and burned as a 2020 presidential candidate, dropping out well before the first votes were cast in Iowa. But Biden chose her as his running mate anyway. It’s not clear exactly what Harris brought to the ticket outside of checking off a few demographic boxes.

Now,

Harris has been taken off the field almost completely. Last week Harris was sent to Vietnam and Singapore amid the chaos in Afghanistan. When that trip was over, she stopped off in Hawaii to visit Pearl Harbor. Any Americans who wanted to hear why Harris supported the decision to pull U.S. forces out of Afghanistan last spring would have to wait, because the press was blocked from the event.

. . . Last year, then-Vice President Mike Pence held dozens of press conferences as the head of the White House coronavirus task force, taking tough questions on an almost daily basis from the onset of the pandemic.

Since Harris took office, she has yet to hold even one formal solo press conference. Not one.

This story covers Harris's standing among swing-district voters in the Philadelphia area. In one interview,

[A 69-year-old retiree] worries Harris’ political growth has been stymied by a series of no-win assignments from President Biden and that Harris cannot overcome the country’s sexism.

. . . Two men told a reporter outright that a woman should never be president; a third said she “cackles” too much; a fourth called her “a joke,” who was put in her job as “a trophy.”

. . . “I can’t think anything of her because she hasn’t done anything,” said Adam Osborn, a 45-year-old Trump supporter who works in the advertising sign industry. “She’s not in the news in a way that portrays her positively, and she’s not in the news period. She’s in the shadows of the administration.”

But based on what we're beginning to understand about Biden himself, I don't think Harris's current position is any sort of tactical move to forestall efforts to remove him. Serious political observers rule out even an impeachment vote with Democrats controlling the House, but even after a putative Republican congressional victory in 2022, the odds of finding 67 senators who'd vote for removal are also slim. Biden understands this. Whatever her qualifications, which are nevertheless minimal, fear of a Harris presidency isn't the chief reason Biden will likely remain. It's just baked into the situation.

I'm thinkng more and more that he simply chose her from the start as the figure least likely to outshine him. It was probably an instinctive decision based on his decades of experience surviving as a mediocrity. That she should not yet hold a solo press conference looks to me like a policy decision from Biden's handlers, implicitly endorsed by the big guy himaelf, irrespective of any developments like the Afghanistan fiasco.

Nor would she ever have the gravitas within the administration to rally the consensus needed to invoke the 25th Amendment, again likely a factor considered in the 2020 selection process. The big guy's been way ahead of us!

Fate could intervene in other ways, of course, and the lizard people might yet devise a set of moves a la Spiro Agnew's resignation and replacement by Gerald Ford that could make Biden's removal more palatable. But to have a complete non-entity as vice president was almost certainly the intent of Biden and his handlers from the start, and let's face it, it's working so far.

What I don't Understand About Alex Berenson Is His Business Model

Alex Berenson, who apparently prefers to be called a "former New York Times reporter", but whom I would probably call a sometime COVID skeptic, was permanently banned from Twitter this past weekend for the post at right. As I've been pointing out here, his wording is actually a fair summary of recent public remarks from figures like Drs Fauci and Walensky: in fact, they've made statements themselves that the vaccine stops neither infection nor transmission. News reports routinely cite individuals who've been hospitalized after the two jabs, and regional masking rules have been reimposed on the clear principle that vaccinated people can transmit the virus.

Various figures have urged Berenson to sue Twitter, but I think this is incredibly bad advice. If he were to do this, he'd be sinking millions of dollars into a doubtful, years-long process of negotiations, injunctions, verdicts, and appeals that would divert his energy from any other projects. Even if some lawyer would take the case pro bono, just being the plaintiff is effectively a full-time, highly stressful job. For what?

Twitter isn't a serious platform, but Berenson does represent himself as a serious guy. Twitter is for posting zingers, and serious people like the late Rush Limbaugh have called it a "behavioral sewer". Jack Dorsey is doing Berenson a big favor, whether either recognizes it or not. But Berenson isn't taking the lesson -- he's simply moving from Twitter to an equivalent forum, Substack, and continuing just to post zingers.

Other than Twitter and now Substack, plus media appearances, his other COVID related effort has been just a four-part, self-published pamphlet, Unreported Truths about COVID-19 and Lockdowns. You buy these online through sources like Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Frankly, I can't imagine that he makes more than latte money by selling these. You can subsidize his Substack tweets if you join his channel, but again, I can't imagine he can even fill up his car's gas tank with that money.

Why is he doing things this way? The words I would use for his project might be "desultory" or "inchoate". This allows legacy media to discredit him, when as far as I can see, events are continuing to prove him right. Last spring, The Atlantic published at hit piece, The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man, that claimed

Berenson has a big megaphone. He has more than 200,000 followers on Twitter and millions of viewers for his frequent appearances on Fox News’ most-watched shows. On Laura Ingraham’s show, he downplayed the vaccines, suggesting that Israel’s experience proved they were considerably less effective than initially claimed. On Tucker Carlson Tonight, he predicted that the vaccines would cause an uptick in cases of COVID-related illness and death in the U.S.

Except that, well, since then, his statements on Fox have been borne out. Israel's experience post vaccines has in fact resulted in a case rate that suggests vaccines had no effect:

The US also experienced an uptick, as Berenson predicted:

The CDC's response has been effectively to acknowledge that vaccines have proven far less effective than originally proclaimed, now recommending an indefinite regimen of boosters.

Berenson's problem is that he's using a gadfly strategy with people who won't hesitate just to swat the gadfly. Berenson has no platform -- even just a blog -- where he can articulate his arguments in a consistent, accessible location where people can find links to his data and see his predictions without having them mischaracterized by his opponents.

And as far as I can see, even if he ran an unmonetized blog on a platform like Blogger, he wouldn't be out all that much money, though he has options for monetizing even there. Maybe the problem is he went to Yale. It's a shame to see real ability going to waste.