Tuesday, September 13, 2022

The Anglican Conundrum

A video in my YouTube feed caught my eye, from a UK channel that's usually pretty highbrow in its tone. As you can see, its title is "Church sings for the first time God save the King". This actually didn't strike me as an earth-shattering event, since it mainly involved some gender pronouns, but I decided to watch it, just because we ex-Anglicans like that sort of church music. What struck me was that the actual singing wasn't going to take place until well into the service, and it was preceded by extended reflections from the celebrant meant to prepare those attending for this change.

The celebrant was wearing a purple chasuble. I looked this up, and in the US Roman Catholic Church, white, purple, or black vestments may be worn at masses for the dead, so this is OK -- but it was hard for me to shake the idea that the Queen's death had a special quasi-sacramental character, especially as related to the pronouns in the national anthem. The Queen is the supreme governor of the Church, and they seem to take this very seriously. Indeed, the Church of England has published a special liturgy for the event.

The biggest thing that struck me was that the celebrant adopted the same patient, explanatory tone toward the changed pronouns that a US Roman Catholic priest would adopt in a homily on, say, the Immaculate Conception, except that the Immaculate Conception isn't something people easily understand, while it's key to understanding the faith. New pronouns in the anthem, not so much. With clear regret and almost a tear in his voice, the celebrant said at one point, "We may never sing God save the Queen again."

Now, I'm no longer an Anglican, and I wouldn't normally attend that parish anyhow, I've got to wonder what other parts of the Anglican faith this celebrant normally explains with such diligence. I think of our own Roman Catholic parish clergy who normally explain to us that going to confession is important, and that sort of thing is helpful so we can avoid living double lives. Do any Anglican clergy explain things other than new pronouns in the national anthem with such diligence?

I tried fast forwarding so I could finally hear God save the King with the new pronouns, but even that seemed like it was going to take a lot of work, and eventually I gave up.

Monday, September 12, 2022

More Zelensky Wartime Rhetoric

This has been reported on social media as a message from Zelensky to the Russian people. Over the course of the war, he seems to be giving fewer formal addresses, and instead, somewhat like Trump, he's relying on shorter Twitter-style posts. The original source of this one appears to be hard to trace, but a reddit comment carries what is claimed to be the most reliable text:

Even through the impenetrable darkness, Ukraine and the civilized world clearly see these terrorist acts.

Deliberate and cynical missile strikes on civilian critical infrastructure. No military facilities. Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were cut off. In Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy there are partial problems with power supply.

Do you still think that we are "one people"? Do you still think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions? You really did not understand anything? Don't understand who we are? What are we for? What are we talking about?

Read my lips:

Without gas or without you? without you

Without light or without you? without you

Without water or without you? without you

Without food or without you? without you

Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your "friendship and brotherhood".

But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food. . . and WITHOUT you!

Another interesting development is that reporters have begun to notice that since last month, Ukraine has been putting captured Russian military equipment back into service without full repaint or refurbishment, simply crossing out the "Z" sign and replacing it with a cross. According to the link,

The choice of the cross has a certain logic, since it is an easy symbol to distinguish from the Z, and also the emblem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces includes a cross. It should also be borne in mind that Ukraine is a predominantly Christian country (around 80% of Ukrainians belong to different Christian denominations).

What sort of Christian denominations remains to shake out. Orthodoxy is undergoing a schism in the wake of the Russo-Ukraine war, and as I've noted in passing, explicitly Russian Orthodox writers like Dostoevsky and Solzhenitsyn are being reevaluated in Ukraine in light of contemporary Russian Orthodox support for imperialist, and indeed genocidal, Russian policies toward Ukraine.

On the other hand, Zelensky, a nominal Jew, has recognized Ukraine's strong Jewish heritage as well as its Christian population, but I suspect the cross would not have been used on military equipment without his approval.

Sunday, September 11, 2022

Anyone Want To Trade?

I think the great unspoken insight over the past few days has been, for all the low expectations the world had for the Prince of Wales, King Charles III actually looks like a head of an important state. Beyond that, he's at least been acting like the head of a family:

The King ordered his warring sons to set aside their ongoing feud ahead of the Queen's funeral, leading the pair to reunite in public for the first time in more than a year, it was last night revealed.

Royal sources say Prince William attempted to bury the hatchet by extending an '11th-hour olive branch' to his younger brother Prince Harry, by asking him to join him on a walkabout outside Windsor Castle following a phone call with his father Charles.

In a scene that clearly delighted royal fans, who had come in their hundreds to the gates of the Windsor estate to mourn the Queen's death, William and Harry walked out side-by-side with wives Kate and Meghan.

"The King ordered. . ." Think of that. In another account,

William is believed to have extended the olive branch with Harry after a chat with Charles III, following the King's first ever speech in which he conveyed his love for Harry and Meghan.

A call was said to be made to the Sussexes early on in the day to ask them if they would join Will and Kate, and they accepted.

So it looks as though the King exerted his influence to create an impression of order and unity in the country at large. By having two feuding branches of the family visibly unite in the process of greeting the people. Imagine that.

In other royal news, America Says Offer To Trade Biden For The Queen Still Stands:

LONDON — Trade representatives in the United Kingdom were surprised to learn that the offer made by the United States to trade President Joe Biden for Queen Elizabeth II still stands, even after the Queen passed away yesterday at the age of 96.

"We just assumed that the offer was only valid as long as Her Majesty was still living," said Sir David Cathcart, the recently appointed Minister of Human Trades for the British government. "The offer was initially taken into consideration quite seriously due to Mr. Biden being significantly younger than the Queen, but after doing our research, it became evident that his mental capabilities had degraded to a rather absurd level."

Officials on the U.S. side of the trade proposal expressed hopefulness that the British would still be willing to consider the trade despite the longtime monarch's death. "It's got to be an even more tempting trade to make now, right?" asked Dr. Nate Thomas, a high-ranking member of the U.S. People Swapping Bureau. "I mean, come on, he's still alive, so that has to count for something. I'm not saying you can trust him to make any decisions or provide strong leadership of any kind, but he's still got a pulse. That's a good deal, right? Right?! Come on, just take him. Please?"

It's starting to look to me as though they wouldn't make a deal for King Charles, either.

Saturday, September 10, 2022

TheContinuing Puzzles

At this point, Ukrainian successes from what analysts currently think is a surprise counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region have simply been outpacing the ability of media to cover them. Here's Newsweek as of midday yesterday, Putin's Troops Have Two Days to Attack or Face Defeat: Ex-Military Leader:

Igor Girkin, who also goes by Igor Strelkov, gave an update on the situation near Izium in a Telegram post on Friday, writing that Russia potentially not being able to restore land communication lines between Izium and the city of Kupyansk in that timeline may also play a part in whether or not it withdraws. Russian forces may even have to leave Izium itself depending on if and when it embarks on its own counteroffensive against Ukrainian advances, he added.

"The question of the time of the counterattack is very acute: if the enemy manages to gain a foothold in the positions reached, pull up artillery and air defense, then it will be extremely difficult for our units to throw him back .... if at all (given the extremely low staffing, especially infantry) Maybe," he wrote, according to an English translation of the post.

But within hours of this assessment, reports were that the Russians had abandoned both Izium and Kupyansk and fled eastward, so even Girkin's/Strelkov's appreciation was overtaken by events. It simply isn't my job here to make blow-by-blow reports on the progress of the war, except to note at this point that Ukraine has been outperforming the most optimistic predictions. What are the implications? We can only speculate wildly about what this means for Russia, except my judgment has been that the Poles, Swedes, Balts, and Finns have been most on top of this and will be the quickest to seize advantage. (This is also the sort of outcome that I think George Kennan had in mind.)

As I've been saying for months, the best analysis of the military situation has been at the left-wing Daily Kos. For instance, today:

It’s worth noting that as much as people screamed that Ukraine needed this or that, the Pentagon and allies had a very clear understanding of what needed to be delivered, balancing ease of learning, operation, maintenance, and supply, with battlefield utility. Ukraine didn’t need NATO armor, it got close to 300 Soviet-era tanks from allies. M113s were sufficiently good infantry carriers (the YPR-765 is actually an M113 variant). Down in Kherson, where wide-open flat spaces expose advancing forces to deadly artillery barrages, Ukraine is using fast Humvees to speed from town to town, giving artillery little chance to zero in on them.

. . . HIMARS really is doing a lot of the roles aircraft have traditional taken (destroying bridges, hardened defenses, ammo depots, and command and control facilities).

. . . So kudos to the Pentagon for having a clear vision of what it would take for Ukraine to retake territory as quickly as possible, even as the peanut gallery wailed that “NATO isn’t playing to win, just not to lose!”

But none of this would have been possible if Ukraine hadn't been in a position to take advantage of the NATO weaponry, training, and intelligence. The initial fear of the US right had been that Ukraine would prove to be as corrupt as the Russians, with Ukrainian generals selling off inventory to all comers as quickly as the Russian ones, with monetary aid disappearing down the rabbit hole just as fast. This hasn't taken place, and the actual strategy for the Kharkiv attack appears to have been Ukrainian: And of course, the memorable quote of the war continues to be from that real-life Victor Laszlo, Volodymyr Zelensky, "The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride".

So in light of this, here are some puzzles. To start with, US intelligence got Russian preparation for the invasion in February right, but not much else.

  • How did the US apparently assume Zelensky would be evacuated from Kyiv in a C130 with his cronies, mistresses, and pallets of cash at the start of the war? That he didn't do this changed everything.
  • How did US intelligence grossly overestimate Russian (and by implication, Soviet) military capabilities? And why?
  • What drove the initial hesitancy to start a putative World War III by denying or delaying effective support to Ukraine?
  • How did a second level at State and the Pentagon apparently circumvent that hesitancy to support Ukraine in the early months of the war?
Interestingly, in addition to George Kennan, another figure who seems to have had a more realistic view of Soviet capabilities was the popular novelist Tom Clancy, an insurance salesman, war gamer, and deep state groupie who foresaw how quickly Soviet forces would collapse in hypothetical confrontations with the US and NATO. But this view never seems to have been current in the upper echelons of the deep state. A similar theme runs through the Cold War spy novels of John le Carré .

On the other hand, another set of more optimistic questions covers the speed with which those second levels at State and the Pentagon were able to recognize the actual state of affairs in Ukraine, recalibrate, and work with NATO actors like Poland and the UK to train the Ukrainian armed forces, supply them with the needed weapons, training, and intelligence, and prosecute an effective resistance.

What's actually been striking me over the past several years has been the resilience of US and other Western institutions.

Friday, September 9, 2022

George F Kennan's Long Telegram, The Elites, And Ukraine

I've kept ruminating on the quote from C Wright Mills that appeared in the Washington Post piece I linked in yesterday's post:

“[The power elite] are in command of the major hierarchies and organizations of modern society. They rule the big corporations. They run the machinery of the state and claim its prerogatives. They direct the military establishment. They occupy the strategic command posts of the social structure, in which are now centered the effective means of the power and the wealth and the celebrity which they enjoy.”

But to that I added another, from Mills's The Power Elite:

[T]he focus of elite attention has been shifted from domestic problems, centered in the ‘thirties around slump, to international problems, centered in the ‘forties and ‘fifties around war. Since the governing apparatus of the United States has by long historic usage been adapted to and shaped by domestic clash and balance, it has not, from any angle, had suitable agencies and traditions for the handling of international problems. Such formal democratic mechanics as had arisen in the century and a half of national development prior to 1941, had not been extended to the American handling of international affairs. It is, in considerable part, in this vacuum that the power elite has grown.

A key document in this period was George F Kennan's Long Telegram of February 22, 1946, which is viewed as forming the basis for US Soviet policy in what would become the Cold War. Kennan is an intriguing figure. Not often noted is that a great uncle, also named George Frost Kennan (1845-1924), was an adviser to the railroad baron Edward H Harriman on, of all things, Russian policy. According to Wikipedia, the younger Kennan (1904-2005), following the early death of his mother,

At the age of eight, he went to Germany to stay with his stepmother in order to learn German. He attended St. John's Military Academy in Delafield, Wisconsin, and arrived at Princeton University in the second half of 1921. Unaccustomed to the elite atmosphere of the Ivy League, the shy and introverted Kennan found his undergraduate years difficult and lonely.

After receiving his bachelor's degree in History in 1925, Kennan considered applying to law school, but decided it was too expensive and instead opted to apply to the newly-formed United States Foreign Service. He passed the qualifying examination and after seven months of study at the Foreign Service School in Washington, he gained his first job as a vice consul in Geneva, Switzerland. Within a year he was transferred to a post in Hamburg, Germany. During 1928, Kennan considered quitting the Foreign Service to return to a university for graduate studies. Instead, he was selected for a linguist training program that would give him three years of graduate-level study without having to quit the service.

. . . In 1929 Kennan began his program on history, politics, culture, and the Russian language at the University of Berlin's Oriental Institute. In doing so, he would follow in the footsteps of his grandfather's younger cousin, George Kennan (1845–1924), a major 19th century expert on Imperial Russia and author of Siberia and the Exile System, a well-received 1891 account of the Czarist prison system.

Although the younger Kennan remained with the State Department, he became steadily more unhappy there and was especially disturbed by what he saw as President Roosevelt's pro-Soviet policies.

In January 1944 he was sent to London, where he served as counselor of the American delegation to the European Advisory Commission, which worked to prepare Allied policy in Europe. There, Kennan became even more disenchanted with the State Department, which he believed was ignoring his qualifications as a trained specialist. However, within months of beginning the job, he was appointed deputy chief of the mission in Moscow upon request of W. Averell Harriman, the ambassador to the USSR.

Averell Harriman was the son of Edward Harriman, and he had become the public face of the Harriman fortune (the Harriman family had left the Republican party after the Theodore Roosevelt justice department sued to break up the Harriman railroad empire; Averell throughout his life was a highly influential Democrat). There can be no question that the younger Kennan had the ear of Averell due to the older Kennan's relationship with his father.

In Moscow, Kennan again felt that his opinions were being ignored by President Truman and policymakers in Washington. Kennan tried repeatedly to persuade policymakers to abandon plans for cooperation with the Soviet government in favor of a sphere of influence policy in Europe to reduce the Soviets' power there. Kennan believed that a federation needed to be established in western Europe to counter Soviet influence in the region and to compete against the Soviet stronghold in eastern Europe.

Kennan via Averell Harriman strongly influenced US Cold War policy, and I find it hard not to conclude that this policy was, first, ultimately successful, and second, in conformance with the wishes of the elites, since Averell Harriman was a centrist figure, and some version of the Cold War containment policy advocated by Kennan was maintained through alternating Republican and Democrat administrations until the Soviet collapse.

This is not to say that the execution of the policy was perfect. The Wikipedia account goes on to stress that Kennan thought the Soviet Union was too weak to risk all-out war, and his recommendations had been misunderstood as pursuing only military containment, which he is quoted as saying, "as much as any other cause, led to [the] 40 years of unnecessary, fearfully expensive and disoriented process of the Cold War".

This is one explanation for the failure, first, of the US intelligence establishment to foresee the Soviet internal collapse, and second, the failure of the US military establishment to foresee the weakness of the Russian army in the Ukraine invasion. I think estimates have been correct that, had Russia even tried to invade Poland instead, the result would have been an immediate rout instead of the months-long stalemate in Ukraine.

This leads me to a puzzle: the US military and State Department, backed by what must surely be the defense elites, has pursued a remarkably successful policy of fighting Russia "to the last Ukrainian" with US and NATO weapons and intelligence but no troops, a strategy which Ukrainian leadership itself has backed. For six months, the White House has effectively kept hands off, and indeed it appears that initial reluctance by the administration to supply first Migs and then long-range artillery to Ukraine has quickly been circumvented behind the scenes.

Nevertheless, we see continued efforts by the US military, presumably encouraged by a different branch of the military elites, to promote something beyond a gender-neutral culture; as of last year, the Pentagon has fully embraced the latest transgender fad:

The Pentagon announced new policies on Wednesday that undo the Trump-era rules that effectively banned transgender people from serving in the military.

The new regulations provide "access to the military in one's self-identified gender provided all appropriate standards are met," the Defense Department said in a statement, and "provide a path for those in service for medical treatment, gender transition, and recognition in one's self-identified gender."

Is this a quid pro quo? Let's recognize that people who undergo surgical gender change become lifelong medical patients, requiring ongoing hormone and other therapies, as well as psychological counseling. The military may feel this is a cost worth paying if the political authorities will give them a free hand in Ukraine and similar conflicts, but I don't think this is any sort of long-term solution. It's an attempt to patch over ever-widening cracks among the elites themselves, and that's the actual state of affairs.

Thursday, September 8, 2022

I'm Not The Only One Thinking About C Wright Mills

I mentioned the influential sociologist C Wright Mills in yesterday's post, but later I discovered an op-ed in the Washington Post that discussed him in some depth on Monday. (For some reason, it's not behind their paywall, so anyone can read it.)

There are clear parallels between today’s populist right and the new left movement that exploded in the 1960s and 1970s.

C. Wright Mills, a sociologist at Columbia University, was that movement’s intellectual godfather. Consider a passage from his 1956 bestseller, “The Power Elite,” a polemical attack on the structure of America’s institutions that would inspire a generation of new left activists:

“[The power elite] are in command of the major hierarchies and organizations of modern society. They rule the big corporations. They run the machinery of the state and claim its prerogatives. They direct the military establishment. They occupy the strategic command posts of the social structure, in which are now centered the effective means of the power and the wealth and the celebrity which they enjoy.”

. . . Mills, who died in 1962, didn’t use the term “deep state,” but an unaccountable bureaucracy was a major concern of the new left philosopher. “It is in the executive chambers, and in the agencies and authorities and commissions and departments that stretch out beneath them” where much policy is made, he argued, “rather than in the open arena of politics.”

Those making decisions were not chosen by ordinary voters: “Once, most of the men who reached the political top got there because people elected them up the hierarchy of offices,” Mills observed. “But of late, in a more administrative age, men become big politically because small groups of men, themselves elected, appoint them.”

Thus we have Dr Fauci, William Barr, and Pete Strzok.

I dispute the characterization "new left"; Mills was apparently an old-left Trotskyite throughout his career, and most figures of the new left were actually red diaper babies from old-left families in any case. And Mills comes off as utterly despicable in his personal life; I make no case for him as anything but a perceptive observer of the world as it is. Nevertheless, here's an appreciation of American historical epochs from The Power Elite:

EXCEPT for the unsuccessful Civil War, changes in the power system of the United States have not involved important challenges to its basic legitimations. Even when they have been decisive enough to be called ‘revolutions,’ they have not involved the ‘resort to the guns of a cruiser, the dispersal of an elected assembly by bayonets, or the mechanisms of a police state.’ Nor have they involved, in any decisive way, any ideological struggle to control masses. Changes in the American structure of power have generally come about by institutional shifts in the relative positions of the political, the economic, and the military orders. From this point of view, and broadly speaking, the American power elite has gone through four epochs, and is now well into a fifth.

The first in his view was the colonial through the Federalist period; the second ran from Jefferson through Lincoln; the third ran from 1866 to the Great War:

Until the First World War (which gave us an advanced showing of certain features of our own period) this was an age of raids on the government by the economic elite, an age of simple corruption, when Senators and judges were simply bought up. Here, once upon a time, in the era of McKinley and Morgan, far removed from the undocumented complexities of our own time, many now believe, was the golden era of the American ruling class.

The military order of this period, as in the second, was subordinate to the political, which in turn was subordinate to the economic. The military was thus off to the side of the main driving forces of United States history. Political institutions in the United States have never formed a centralized and autonomous domain of power; they have been enlarged and centralized only reluctantly in slow response to the public consequence of the corporate economy.

In the post-Civil-War era, that economy was the dynamic; the ‘trusts’ — as policies and events make amply clear — could readily use the relatively weak governmental apparatus for their own ends. That both state and federal governments were decisively limited in their power to regulate, in fact meant that they were themselves regulatable by the larger moneyed interests. Their powers were scattered and unorganized; the powers of the industrial and financial corporations concentrated and interlocked. The Morgan interests alone held 341 directorships in 112 corporations with an aggregate capitalization of over $22 billion — over three times the assessed value of all real and personal property in New England. With revenues greater and employees more numerous than those of many states, corporations controlled parties, bought laws, and kept Congressmen of the ‘neutral’ state. And as private economic power overshadowed public political power, so the economic elite overshadowed the political.

Here, I think Mills and the populist Ferdinand Lundberg are in broad agreement; in Lundberg's view, as of The Rich and the Super-Rich (1968), he felt that the structure of US society was dominated by fortunes made during Mills's "golden era of the American ruling class". But Mills feels the New Deal began another epoch:

The earlier and middle Roosevelt administrations can best be understood as a desperate search for ways and means, within the existing capitalist system, of reducing the staggering and ominous xis army of the unemployed. In these years, the New Deal as a system of power was essentially a balance of pressure groups and interest blocs. The political top adjusted many conflicts, gave way to this demand, sidetracked that one, was the unilateral servant of none, and so evened it all out into such going policy line as prevailed from one minor crisis to another. Policies were the result of a political act of balance at the top. Of course, the balancing act that Roosevelt performed did not affect the fundamental institutions of capitalism as a type of economy. By his policies, he subsidized the defaults of the capitalist economy, which had simply broken down; and by his rhetoric, he balanced its political disgrace, putting ‘economic royalists’ in the political doghouse.

The ‘welfare state,’ created to sustain the balance and to carry out the subsidy, differed from the ‘laissez-faire’ state: ‘If the state was believed neutral in the days of T.R. because its leaders claimed to sanction favors for no one,’ Richard Hofstadter has remarked, ‘the state under F.D.R. could be called neutral only in the sense that it offered favors to everyone.’ The new state of the corporate commissars differs from the old welfare state. In fact, the later Roosevelt years — beginning with the entrance of the United States into overt acts of war and preparations for World War II cannot be understood entirely in terms of an adroit equipoise of political power.

I'm less impressed by his essentially Marxist analysis of the Great Depression as a crisis of corporate capitalism; more recent neoliberal analysis argues that it was a misapplication of government policies that were newly enabled by the exigencies of the Great War and its aftermath. Nevertheless, I think his view of the Cold War epoch -- his fifth -- is productive:

The long-time tendency of business and government to become more intricately and deeply involved with each either has, in the fifth epoch, reached a new point of explicitness. The two cannot now be seen clearly as two distinct worlds. It is in terms of the executive agencies of the state that the rapprochement has proceeded most decisively. The growth of the executive branch of the government, with its agencies that patrol the complex economy, does not mean merely the ‘enlargement of government’ as some sort of autonomous bureaucracy: it has meant the ascendancy of the corporation’s man as a political eminence.

. . . In so far as the structural clue to the power elite today lies in the enlarged and military state, that clue becomes evident in the military ascendancy. The warlords have gained decisive Political relevance, and the military structure of America is now in considerable part a political structure. The seemingly permanent military threat places a premium on the military and upon their control of men, materiel, money, and power; virtually all political and economic actions are now judged in terms of military definitions of reality: the higher warlords have ascended to a firm position within the power elite of the fifth epoch.

In part at least this has resulted from one simple historical fact, pivotal for the years since 1939: the focus of elite attention has been shifted from domestic problems, centered in the ‘thirties around slump, to international problems, centered in the ‘forties and ‘fifties around war. Since the governing apparatus of the United States has by long historic usage been adapted to and shaped by domestic clash and balance, it has not, from any angle, had suitable agencies and traditions for the handling of international problems. Such formal democratic mechanics as had arisen in the century and a half of national development prior to 1941, had not been extended to the American handling of international affairs. It is, in considerable part, in this vacuum that the power elite has grown.

Mills died in 1962, just before the Viet Nam War became a central political issue, but it's worth noting that the period from Mills's death to the present has in fact been dominated by wars, proxy wars, or near-wars and their international implications in Viet Nam, the Holy Land, Iraq, Iran, Central America, Somalia, Libya, the Balkans, Afghanistan, and now Ukraine, along with the background threats of Islamic terrorism in many other places. And in response, as Mills predicted, we've seen the enormous growth of a completely new military-intelligence power elite.

The grand old man of this group is Henry Kissinger, but it's worth noting that his advancement was under the aegis of the Rockefellers, one of the great fortunes of Mills's third epoch:

From 1956 to 1958, Kissinger worked for the Rockefeller Brothers Fund as director of its Special Studies Project. He served as the director of the Harvard Defense Studies Program between 1958 and 1971. In 1958, he also co-founded the Center for International Affairs with Robert R. Bowie where he served as its associate director. Outside of academia, he served as a consultant to several government agencies and think tanks, including the Operations Research Office, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Department of State, and the RAND Corporation.

Keen to have a greater influence on U.S. foreign policy, Kissinger became foreign policy advisor to the presidential campaigns of Nelson Rockefeller, supporting his bids for the Republican nomination in 1960, 1964, and 1968.

Beyond that, his second wife, Nancy Maginnes, was a close aide to Nelson Rockefeller as well. The point to be made here is that if you scratch the surface of actual policy and actual decisions, you keep finding close coordination among corporate interests and unelected but powerful government officials, in other words a "deep state" that continues independent of elections.

For good or ill, this is the threat Donald Trump has represented to the established state of affairs. I'll have more to say about this.

Wednesday, September 7, 2022

Is William Barr A Muppet?

This is the question that pestered me all weekend. I just don't think you'd have to tweak Waldorf too hard to come up with William Barr, especially with the turned-down-mouth, lips-pulled-in expression of disgust that he's most commonly made during public appearances with Trump. His latest gig as surrogate for Merrick Garland on questions about the Mar-a-Lago raid raises the continuing question for me that he never took the position of Attorney General under Trump in good faith -- I suspect there was actually a back-channel deal among Barr, McConnell, Romney, and assorted other Senate RINOs to confirm him in 2019 on the basis that, like Jeff Sessions, he wouldn't actually implement Trump policies.

I would also go a little farther and suggest that Barr isn't so much an apologist for Garland as he is an apologist for the deep state. In fact, I would suggest that the example of Barr is a refutation of the notion that the deep state is some sort of conspiracy theory. Let's take this Wikipedia entry as an expression of that notion:

According to a discredited American political conspiracy theory promoted by Donald Trump and his supporters, the deep state is a clandestine network of actors in the federal government, high-level finance, and high-level industry operating as a hidden government that exercises power alongside or within the elected United States government.

Variations of the deep state have existed as popular conspiracy theories in the United States since the 1950s.

The deep state conspiracy theory reached mainstream recognition under the presidency of Donald Trump, who referenced the ‘deep state’ as working against his administration’s agenda.

Opinion polling done in 2017 and 2018 suggests that approximately half of all Americans believe in the existence of a deep state.

However, the idea of a "deep state" predates the 1950s and has never necessarily been a right-wing theory. Ferdinand Lundberg, a populist and by no means a right-winger, published America's 60 Families in 1937, which according to Wikipedia

is an argumentative analysis of wealth and class in the United States, and how they are leveraged for purposes of political and economic power, specifically by what the author contends is a "plutocratic circle" composed of a tightly interlinked group of 60 families.

Critics have pointed out that Lundberg never specifically identified those families, but Lundberg's hyperbolic style suggests he never intended to -- it was a metaphorical outline of how things worked. C Wright Mills's 1956 The Power Elite, according to Wikipedia,

calls attention to the interwoven interests of the leaders of the military, corporate, and political elements of society and suggests that the ordinary citizen in modern times is a relatively powerless subject of manipulation by those three entities.

. . . According to Mills, the eponymous "power elite" are those that occupy the dominant positions, in the three pillar institutions (state security, economic and political) of a dominant country. Their decisions (or lack thereof) have enormous consequences, not only for Americans but, "the underlying populations of the world." The institutions which they head, Mills posits, are a triumvirate of groups that have inherited or succeeded weaker predecessors:

Mills was hardly a conspiracy theorist in the shadows; he had a PhD from the University of Wisconsin and a full academic career with grants at the University of Maryland and Columbia University. Far from a right-winger, he was a Trotskyite. His books, while aimed largely at a popular audience, continue to be influential among academics.

Another popular writer of the 1950s and 60s was Vance Packard:

In The Hidden Persuaders, first published in 1957, Packard explored advertisers' use of consumer motivational research and other psychological techniques, including depth psychology and subliminal tactics, to manipulate expectations and induce desire for products, particularly in the American postwar era. He identified eight "compelling needs" that advertisers promise products will fulfill (Emotional Security, Reassurance of worth, Ego gratification, Creative outlets, Love objects, Sense of power, Roots, Immortality).

According to Packard, these needs are so strong that people are compelled to buy products merely to satisfy them. The book also explores the manipulative techniques of promoting politicians to the electorate. Additionally, the book questions the morality of using these techniques.

This might be looked on as a constellation of assertions by best-selling mainstream journalists and academics in the 1930s through 1950s that US society is dominated by wealthy elites with interlocking interests that use media and the political process to impose their consensus views on a largely powerless public.

I don't think you could find a better example to substantiate those views at the current moment than William Barr and his contentious relationship with Donald Trump, who has made a successful post-retirement career as an amateur politician who fronts for a working and middle class that's become aware that their interests don't necessarily conform to the elite consensus outlined by Lundberg, Mills, and Packard.

That Trump in many ways before retirement worked within that elite consensus as an entrepreneur and media figure gives credibility to his political persona -- but his political persona as an opponent of the elite consensus is his whole stock in trade. He is not a policy candidate, he's a personal champion.

This is the source of the current elite anger, and you couldn't ask for a better foil in the present news cycle than Barr, who's little more than a muppet.