Trump Asserts Control

Via Breitbart News,

The donor class began to cut off all future funding of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s campaign after she lost the critical Republican primary in New Hampshire, multiple advisers to political megadonors told the Washington Post Wednesday.

The desertions represent the beginning of the end for Haley’s ability to remain in the race. Haley was the donor class’s choice candidate to block former President Donald Trump, but after his historic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley’s financial backers apparently see the writing on the wall.

The writing n the wall was from Trump himself:

"When I ran for Office and won, I noticed that the losing Candidate's 'Donors' would immediately come to me, and want to 'help out.'"

"This is standard in Politics, but no longer with me. Anybody that makes a 'Contribution' to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp," Trump declared. "We don’t want them, and will not accept them, because we Put America First, and ALWAYS WILL!"

The word seems to be out that if you ever might consider getting on the Trump train, you'd better do it now, because that train is leaving the station. It appears that message has been delivered to Congress as well:

Inside a special closed-door Republican meeting on Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., cast doubt on an emerging deal to tighten immigration laws, citing GOP opposition to its provisions and telling senators that linking the two measures could also sink Ukraine aid.

It represents a marked shift for the top Senate Republican, who has been pushing hard for a bipartisan deal to pass the border legislation and foreign aid bill together through the Democratic-led Senate and the Republican-led House.

“When we started this, the border united us and Ukraine divided us,” McConnell told his fellow Republicans, according to a source familiar with his remarks. “The politics on this have changed.”

The shift comes as Donald Trump, who has pushed congressional GOP members to kill the deal, marches to the Republican presidential nomination and as hard-right Senate Republicans have grown increasingly pointed in their criticism of McConnell.

Trump’s desire to wield chaos at the border as a political weapon against President Joe Biden in a general election campaign is a factor in the ongoing congressional negotiations, with McConnell telling Republicans: “We don’t want to do anything to undermine him.”

Another source reported that McConnell referred to Trump as "the nominee".

NEWS from me & @bresreports in @PunchbowlNews PM:

MCCONNELL told a closed meeting of Senate Republicans Wed that the politics of the border has flipped for Rs and cast doubt on linking Ukraine and border.

“When we started this, the border united us and Ukraine divided us.”…

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) January 24, 2024

The Hill reports,

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) called Trump’s opposition to a border security deal “appalling.”

“I think the border is a very important issue for Donald Trump,” Romney said. “And the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is really appalling.”

Senate Republicans across the spectrum say that Trump’s growing political momentum and the heating up of election year politics is going to make it exceedingly difficult to get funding for Ukraine and a border security deal through the Senate and House and to President Biden’s desk.

But Romney is a lame duck who will be retiring at the end of this year, doubtless understanding his chances of renomination or reelection. Things are changing fast.

Bailing On "Birdbrain"

Reid Hoffman, the Democrat donor who also funded E Jean Carroll's defamation suit against Trump, donated $250,000 to a pro-Haley super PAC last year, but no longer plans to support her campaign.

Billionaire Reid Hoffman does not plan to give any more money to Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign after her loss in the New Hampshire Republican primary, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Hoffman is one of Haley’s first wealthy donors to start heading for the exit after she said Tuesday that she will remain in the GOP’s nomination contests against former President Donald Trump despite failing to beat him in New Hampshire or in the Iowa caucuses.

The person who told CNBC that Hoffman didn’t have immediate plans to help Haley again declined to be named in order to speak freely about the matter.

This is another factor that suggests to me that Democrats wanted to support a candidate who could take Trump out of the running in the primaries but would be easier to beat in the general election. Now that the outcome appears less and less likely, they're putting their money elsewhere. The lack of enthusiasm for Haley extends to Republican donors as well, according to the same CNBC link:

A Republican fundraiser told CNBC on Wednesday that three clients who each helped Haley raise up to $100,000 for her campaign are now opting out of further financial efforts for the former United Nations ambassador.

Other fundraisers said Wednesday said that while they plan to speak out publicly in support of Haley, they are not convinced that they will be able to raise much money for her campaign because of her 0-for-2 record so far.

Meanwhile, Trump as irreverent entertainer has returned, with a new nickname for Haley:

"Nikki 'Birdbrain' Haley is very bad for the Republican Party and, indeed, our Country. Her False Statements, Derogatory Comments, and Humiliating Public Loss, is demeaning to True American Patriots," Trump posted on Truth Social. "Her anger should be aimed at her Third Rate Political Consultants and, more importantly, Crooked Joe Biden and those that are destroying our Country - NOT THE PEOPLE WHO WILL SAVE IT."

Like many of his previous nicknames such as "Low Energy Jeb", this one looks likely to home in on its target with devastating effect, but it's worth noting that Trump didn't deploy it until she refused to withdraw from the race following her defeat. David Axelrod's reaction even before Trump called her "Birdbrain" is an indication of how much Democrat strategists actually fear him as an opponent in the general:

Democratic strategist David Axelrod denounced former President Trump’s New Hampshire victory speech Wednesday, calling it “improvisational” and saying the former president acted like a “jackass.”

Trump’s rambling victory monologue after a strong performance in the Granite State included repeated jabs at his chief rival, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, including mocking her own concession speech earlier in the evening and making fun of her dress.

. . . The strategist said in a CNN interview Wednesday that the Trump campaign isn’t able to contain its candidate.

“I guarantee you that they did not say, ‘Go on out there and act like a jackass and go after Nikki Haley in really personal and sexist ways, humiliate Tim Scott,’” Axelrod said. “That was the improvisational Trump.”

As I've been sayling, Trump's appeal is in his irrepressibility, something Axelrod implicitly acknowledges here. At the same time, both Democrats and NeverTrumpers seem to have become resigned to rhe fact that Haley is neither a credible alternative to Trump for the nomination nor a potentially beatable candidate in November, and both groups have begun to bail.

Do The Democrats Really Want To Run Against Trump?

Ever since I noted Andrew McCarthy's resuscitation of that meme last week at National Review Online, I've kept it in the back of my mind as I watch developments. NRO repeated it this morning in response to Trump's New Hampshire win:

The Democrats want Trump as their opponent in the belief that they can salvage Joe Biden’s prospects by making the race all about Trump, and last night showed, once again, that they are making a sensible, if cynical, calculation. That independents turned out in such large numbers to cast votes in the Republican primary simply to protest Trump was an early indication of how he could lose the middle in November.

Republican voters could have avoided giving Democrats what they wanted, but instead are putting all their chips on their riskiest electoral bet.

The first problem with this view is CNN's reporting of the New Hampshire exit polls:

Roughly 7 in 10 of the New Hampshire voters backing Trump said they were registered as Republicans. . . . Haley’s backers present a near mirror image: about 7 in 10 said they were registered as undeclared prior to Tuesday[.]

The question is how many Haley voters were effectively Democrats voting for her in order to improve her chances of becoming the nominee, especiallly with Biden off the ballot. Certainly television interviews found numerous voters who claimed to be such. According to a local source,

Nearly 4,000 New Hampshire Democrats changed their party affiliation to undeclared or Republican during the window from Sept. 14 to Oct. 7, indicating they may participate in the Republican primary.

With about 161,000 Haley votes total in last night's primary, this amounts to potentially 2% of all Haley voters being former registered Democrats intending outright to boost Haley's chances in the Republican primary and should be factored into Haley's vote total. In fact, Just the News reports exit polls showed about 6% of Tuesday’s GOP primary voters identified as Democrat. Nevertheless, with Trump winning about 54% of the Republican vote, he achieved a credible victory even with some Haley voters unlikely ro aupport any Republican in the general election.

A second problem with the idea that Democrats want Trump as the nominee is the Democrat donors who've supported Haley. According to Forbes,

Billionaire LinkedIn cofounder and Democratic donor Reid Hoffman gave $250,000 to support former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s GOP presidential primary campaign—joining a growing list of deep-pocketed donors supporting Haley, as many view her as the best alternative to former President Donald Trump, reports Sara Dorn.

Hoffman, a frequent Trump critic who has helped finance various efforts against the former president, recently donated $250,000 to the pro-Haley super PAC Stand For America Fund Inc., Hoffman’s political advisor Dmitri Mehlhorn told Forbes after the donation was first made public by the New York Times.

He is not the only monied Democratic donor getting behind Haley: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon—who said he has been in contact with Haley, but stopped short of endorsing her and has not donated to her campaign—urged business leaders and “liberal Democrats” last week to support Haley as “a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump.”

NeverTrumpers also rely on outlier polls to promote Haley, including this morning at the NeverTrump Hot Air aggregator: Polls Suddenly Looking Different Now That Trump Sealed the Deal?

Yep. Susquehanna shows President Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by more than 7 points, at least if the election were held today.

In 2020 the election was decided by 1 point, and that was before the past 3 years of failures have driven Joe Biden’s approval rating into the toilet.

So what’s going on? Is this a bad poll? A biased poll? An outlier–even pollsters will tell you that 1 out of 5 polls are just wrong, and the margin of error is almost 4%.

But geez, that is a shocking poll.

The problem for the headline is that the poll was taken between January 15 and January 24, after Iowa but before New Hampshire, and thus before anyone could have asserted tht Trump "sealed the deal". The idea that Haley could do better than Trump against Biden is wishful thinking -- according to Slate, which certainly prefers Biden,

Exit polling in New Hampshire found that Trump won registered Republicans on Tuesday by fifty points. Strange things have happened in American politics recently, but the Republican Party awarding its nomination to someone who is losing its voters by 50 is not going to be one of them.

In the unlikely event Haley secured the Republican nomination, she would lose much of the Republican base in the general election, while Trump would keep it but is continuing to win over key elements of the former Democrat base, including labor, Latins, Jews, and increasing numbers of African-Americans. Why would Democrats prefer Trump as an opponent when Haley would effectively be a repeat of Romney in 2012?

Kevin Morris Says He's Hunter's Attorney

Last Friday I posted on a bar complaint filed against Kevin Morris:

[I]f Mr. Morris has provided personal funds to an individual who has now been confirmed to be a client – or who would reasonably believe himself to be Mr. Morris’s client – Mr. Morris would have violated both the text of the Rules of Professional Conduct and the well-established norms of the legal profession.

. . . If Hunter Biden or a similarly situated person would reasonably anticipate that Mr. Morris was obligated to provide legal services, the alleged funding of the lifestyle of a client or potential client justifies the immediate opening of a misconduct investigation under Rule 1.8.5.

In that post, I raised the question of whether Morris is actually Hunter Biden's attorney -- he could potentially weasel his way out by saying he is in fact an attorney, but in Hunter's case, he's just acting as a friend, not as an attorney of record. But according to Just the News, Morris invoked attorney-client privilege 17 times in his deposition to the Comer committee last week:

According to the transcript of the testimony reviewed by Just the News, Morris said that he began representing Biden about one week after the December 2019 California fundraiser for his father, Joe Biden, who became president in 2020. The details surrounding this meeting were previously reported by Just the News.

Morris’ early representation of Hunter Biden allowed him to invoke the privilege frequently, to avoid answering questions about his first meeting with the first son, how he paid Hunter Biden’s other attorneys and about the planning for Hunter Biden’s defiant speech in front of the Capitol while avoiding complying with his first congressional subpoena.

Specifically, Morris attempted to invoke the privilege regarding his acquisition of one of Hunter Biden's companies after Joe Biden's inauguration. Additionally, he denied claims that he was motivated by political concerns to help the first son solve his tax issues and stay afloat during his father's campaign, which was indicated by evidence from the IRS whistleblowers last year.

. . According to the transcript, Morris claimed that his legal representation of Hunter Biden was “global and complete” and therefore argued that almost any detail of their relationship is off limits to congressional investigators. Yet despite this, Morris told the committee that he had not represented Hunter directly in the past three years.

The story indicates that Just the News was aware of the bar complaint:

America First Legal filed a complaint with the state bar against Morris for allegedly violating its Rules of Professional Conduct.

According to rule 1.8.5(a): “[a] lawyer shall not directly or indirectly pay or agree to pay, guarantee, or represent that the lawyer or lawyer’s law firm will pay the personal or business expenses of a prospective or existing client,’ according to the California Bar.

Yet, Morris confirmed to the committee that he loaned Hunter Biden millions of dollars from 2020 to 2024 that are recorded in promissory notes. Just the News reported in November that Morris had loaned at least $5 million to the younger Biden to cover his tax debts and living expenses.

The story also refrred to other answers Morris gave in the transcript that suggest the overall nature of his relationship with Hunter:

“Counsel, in my job I represent high-profile individuals. ... [H]igh-profile individuals have basically virtual corporations. And in those virtual corporations, they have all kinds of staff and assistants. You know, agents and managers ... publicists. You know, whatever. And what I do is I oversee ... sort of the squad. Sort of like a general counsel,” Morris told the committees.

“But I am involved in everything. I am involved in everything. And the same is with Hunter. If you check my retainer agreements, you’ll see that it’s not – it says all matters,” he continued.

Presumably it's his job to keep his clients out of trouble and away from bad publicity. Well, maybe somebody like Tom Hanks has that kind of uber-guardian angel who does this kind of work, but if Hunter is any sort of typical Kevin Morris client, he can't be working for Tom Hanks -- maybe he works for Alec Baldwin or Amber Heard instead. I'd love to hear whom else Kevin is working for this way.

That Morris shied away from questions on how he pays Hunter's other lawyers also suggests he is in fact paying Abbe Lowell, and this strongly suggests to me that Lowell has liens on Morris's properties to guarantee those payments. I can't imagine that Mrs Kevin, AKA Gaby Morgerman of the William Morris agency, is thrilled with this, and I suspect that marriage is on borrowed time due to Kevin's involvement with Hunter.

I'm continuing to think the Comer committee staff was working mainly to nail down Morris's version of events to be able to catch him in inconsistencies down the road. I wouldn't hire Kevin Morris to get me out of a speeding ticket, much less solve my tax, drug, or gun problems.

Here's How Lawfare Is Shaking Out

I suddenly realized Alan Dershowitz has had very little to say about developments in Trump's trials in recent weeks beyond comparing his strategy in New York to the successful Chicago Seven strategy of 1969. But here's how he saw the prospects, at least for his four criminal indictments, as of last August:

Alan Dershowitz believes all of former president Donald Trump’s trials will be completed prior to the 2024 election, but notes “There’ll be some convictions,” along the way.

. . . “I predict there’ll be some convictions,” speculated the lawyer. “I think the strategy is to get bad convictions, but to get them fast,” he continued, saying that Trump would then be able to appeal the decisions, after the election. Dershowitz argued that this is the reason prosecutors are “rushing” to get their cases against Trump to trial.

. . . “They’re going to get on the bandwagon,” Dershowitz said of prosecutors. The “approach is to get him before the election, convict him before the election, and he wins on appeal.”

“That’s tomorrow’s news,” Dershowitz concluded.

By this past December, he had scaled back his estimate:

They're going to try their best. It's going to be up to the discretion of judges. I suspect there will be at least one trial and probably one conviction before the election. And I think there's a substantial chance that any convictions will be very, very carefully scrutinized by the appellate courts and ultimately by the Supreme Court. . . . I think definitely it will be appealed after the election. And I think there's a substantial chance it could be reversed based on venue, based on immunity, based on a lack of a reasonable basis for a search of a phone. There are many, many grounds on appeal, but it will have no effect on the election if it occurs after the election rather than before. [ellipsis in original]

But this was before Trump's appeal of Judge Chutkan's denial of his immunity claim put the January 6 case on hold and before the ethical issues in Atlanta put the timing of that prosecution in question. No date had been set for the Atlanta trial before the allegations against District Attorney Willis surfaced, while any likelihood that the January 6 trial will start as scheduled on March 4 is fading as the DC appeals court continues to review the case. No date has been set for any of his other trials, and they now seem unlikely even to begin, much less to conclude, before the election. Judge Chutkan has been forced to reiterate that the January 6 prosecution cannot proceed with any trial business while the appeal is under review, and Trump is likely to appeal any adverse ruling from the appeals court to the US Supreme Court, further placing a trial date out of reach.

It's very hard to find a single cogent summary of the Democrat lawfare strategy as it was developed in 2023, but Dershowitz's version is correct as far as it goes. This version in the Washington Examiner from just a month ago is more general, but it does mention an objective of preemptively driving Trump out of the race:

The story of the 2024 campaign so far is the effort by Democrats and their appointees to use criminal charges and lawsuits to force former President Donald Trump out of the race for a second term in the White House. The name for such an effort is lawfare — that is, “the strategic use of legal proceedings to intimidate or hinder an opponent,” to cite one law dictionary.

. . . [T]he reality is, the prosecutions and lawsuits are all the work of Trump’s political opponents. If they succeed, they will result in him going to prison, paying huge fines, and losing his business. They would, in short, once and for all remove Trump from the American political scene.

It is as if anti-Trump leaders concluded that elections did not succeed in getting rid of him and media attacks did not succeed in getting rid of him and investigations did not succeed in getting rid of him and now the next step is lawfare. That’s where we are now.

. . . Immediately after the first indictment, Bragg’s, support for Trump in the Republican primary race shot upward. It rose further amid later indictments and lawsuits, going from 44% support before the Bragg indictment to 63% support today in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Some Republicans are clearly using support of Trump as a way to express their disapproval of the wave of prosecutions and lawsuits. Whether that will last is unclear. But the Democratic lawfare campaign has been relentless, and it will surely provoke continuing Republican reaction in the months to come.

This discussion doesn't raise the issue of timing even as much as Dershowitz does, but as the cases have proceeded, it's become highly unlikely that any of the trials can conclude before the election. But the assumption had also been that the trials likely to begin the soonest, the January 6 trial scheduled to start March 4, and the Atlanta trial, still with an indefinite start date, would at least feature headline allegations in testimony against Trump atarting just before the March 5 Super Tuesday primary and extend through the rest of the primary season.

But as of now, with Gov DiSantis dropping out of the Republican race before tomorrow's New Hampshire primary and polls suggesting Trump will beat Ambassador Haley with 50% or more, the Republican primary season is effectively over, with a large segment of voters discounting Trump's indictments and farcical civil trials, with the credibility of the Atlanta prosecution collapsing. As the credibility of these trials diminishes, it will affect the public view of any future prosecutions, especially any that might yet be brought before the election.

So far, the Democrat lawfare strategy has, if anything, worked not just to keep Trump in the race but to enhance his general-election prospects in a way that's overtaken even Alan Dershowitz's predictions.

The Kevin Morris Mystery Grows

I've been posting about Kevin Morris for quite a while. in part because his story never quite adds up. As I posted last November,

. . . he's an entertainment lawyer whose career seems to have prospered, at least for a time, because his wife, William Morris partner Gaby Morgerman, is one of the most powerful agents in Hollywood. But the projects he's been asssociated with, South Park (1997) and the musical The Book of Mormon (2011), are old news. He left his former law firm Morris Yorn Barnes & Levine in 2020, oddly at the same time that he became heavily involved in Hunter's business and personal affairs.

But as I posted here, Morris appears to have lost interest in his law practice years earlier. In 2009, he "decided to become a writer" and seems to have worked full time at writing and publishing a collection of short stories, White Man's Problems (2014), and two novels, All Joe Knight (2016) and Gettysburg (2019). By most accounts, he met Hunter in 2019 at a Joe Biden fundraiser, Hunter impressed him, and the rest is history. He seems to have dropped his aspiration to become the John Updike of his generation, as well as his entertainment law career, and undertaken Hunter as his full time project.

This account of his deposition to the Comer committee last week fills in some blanks:

Comer revealed that Hollywood producer Lanette Phillips introduced Morris to Hunter Biden during a campaign event at her Los Angeles home for Joe Biden in the winter of 2019. One week later, Phillips called Morris to discuss what Morris apparently framed as an “entertainment” issue. Morris later visited Hunter at his home in L.A., according to the press release.

So Morris met Hunter via a connected intermediary at a time when he was easing out of his law firm and after his career as a writer failed to take off. It seems as if he was at loose ends, looking for something new. The story continues,

Morris testified he began providing money to Hunter Biden in January 2020. Then on Feb. 7, 2020, Morris emailed Hunter’s advisers and tax accountants, writing, “We are under considerable risk personally and politically to get the returns in.” Less than two weeks later, Hunter Biden filed his long-overdue 2017 and 2018 tax returns, although he didn’t pay his hefty tax bill at the time. Around Oct. 18, 2021, Morris paid some $2 million in overdue taxes for the president’s son.

In addition to paying Hunter’s taxes, Morris also paid for many of his living expenses and bought 13 of Hunter Biden’s paintings — two from before Hunter retained a gallerist and 11 after, with Morris paying $875,000 for the set purchased from the gallerist.

Lanette Phillips, the Hollywood producer, also introduced Hunter to George Berges in December, 2019, at the same time she introduced Hunter to Morris. However, it took another year for Hunter and Berges to establish a business relationship:

. . . in December 2020, Hunter and Berges executed a contract appointing the gallery owner as his exclusive representative, with Berges receiving a commission of 40 percent on sales. That contract, Berges testified, included a provision that required the gallerist to disclose to Hunter the identity of the purchasers of his paintings.

As Berges explained, that was not a typical contract term; he had never included a similar clause in any of his other contracts. “Normally, the gallerist does not let the artist know who the collectors are,” Berges confirmed, adding that of the 15 or so artists he currently works with, none ask to know who purchased their artwork. Berges elaborated, stating, “It’s my collector base,” and you don’t want “your artists to circumvent you if they know your collectors.”

But it wasn't until 2023 that Morris purchased the bulk of Hunter's paintings:

Hunter Biden also knew the identity of Morris, who on Jan. 19, 2023, purchased, in the name of his LLC, Kuliaky Art, 11 paintings for $875,000. Berges explained that Morris had seen the paintings at Hunter’s exhibit in California in October 2021 and then negotiated the January 2023 sale with him by telephone.

Berges further explained that Morris did not pay the galley [sic] for the paintings, but instead paid Berges his 40 percent commission and then paid Hunter (or reduced his loan balance) separately.

. . . Why would Morris purchase paintings from Berges at all? As Berges testified, the reason gallerists don’t share the names of their buyers with the artists is so they aren’t cut out of the deal. Morris, however, likely didn’t want to ruin Hunter’s relationship with Berges, Berges reasoned. But that doesn’t explain why Morris wouldn’t have purchased art from Hunter before he had a gallerist.

Here we run into an interesting detail: Morris testified he had purchased two pieces of art from Hunter Biden before he had a gallerist. Why then wait for Hunter to enter a contract with Berges before purchasing more art? And why wait until January 2023, when he saw the art during an October 2021 exhibit?

As far as I can tell, the deal between Hunter and Berges was negotiated separately from Morris at the behest of Lanette Phillips, and Morris didn't buy paintings from Hunter via this route until months or years after that deal was made. Why did Morris buy paintings through Berges at all, especially if he'd already been giving Hunter "loans" through other channels? Nor was the deal lucrative for Berges:

Morris’ $875,000 represented a huge chunk of Hunter Biden’s total sales of $1.5 million. In fact, Morris’ purchase represented such an “outlier,” as Berges put it, that the Soho gallery owner hasn’t renewed his contract with Hunter and is considering dropping him as a client.

“I look at the totality,” Berges explained. “If I look at the whole picture of this artist objectively, I would say, okay, this is great that we got someone to do a major acquisition, but let’s look at the general response and what the value is.”

“It’s not that impressive,” he concluded.

In other words, Berges is in business, and selling Hunter's paintings as "art" didn't make business sense, even if he earned commission from the sales. Margot Cleveland, the author of the piece, thinks the idea of funneling payments to Hunter via Berges's gallery fell apart due to public scrutiny during 2023, but it looks like Berges didn't particularly want the business, and the problem with the whole arrangement would have been that any money that went to Hunter via Berges would have been subject to a 40% commission, hardly an efficient way to do things.

What's hard for me to get around is the idea that Kevin Morris, at loose ends for a career after leaving his law firm in 2020 and having failed as a writer before that, was throwing millions of dollars around in "loans" to Hunter Biden, at least $875,000 of which was in a scheme Hunter seems to have worked out with George Berges via Lanette Phillips that never made a whole lot of sense for anyone involved, least of all Morris.

I think Morris is starting to look like one of Hunter's marks, and I'm just not sure he's all there. I've got to assume Abbe Lowell has got liens on Morris's properties to be sure he gets paid.

How Goes The Lawfare Strategy?

As I noted on Wednesday, although NeverTrumpers like Andrew McCarthy claim that the Democrats' lawfare strategy has succeeded in making Trump the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination, statements by Biden supporters have consistently taken the position that the indictments and trials were timed to coincide with key campaign events that would tend to favor his opponents, especially Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. By that reasoning, at least as might have been foreseen in the middle of last year, the Letitia James civil trial in New York would have dampened Trump's prospects in the Iowa caucuses and early primaries, while starting the January 6 trial in Washington on March 4, the day before Super Tuesday, would also have favored other Republican candidates.

Instead, it looks like there won't be much of a Republican primary contest at all. On Wednesday, following the Iowa caucus results, Sen Cruz, who ran against Trump in the 2016 primaries, announced “this race is over” before he stated he is “proud to endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States.” Philip Bump writes in the Washinton Post, "A lot of people are invested in presenting the 2024 Republican primary contest as competitive. It isn’t. It hasn’t been."

He goes on to say that media outlets have an incentive to cover the race as competitive, because it brings in clicks, but

No other Republican has landed a blow on Trump, particularly since he galvanized his support at the beginning of last year. This is one reason that Haley and DeSantis so often go after each other; there’s actual ground to be gained. The other reason is that neither candidate wants to irritate Trump’s base of support, just in case Trump gets hit by a meteor or something. The result is that there is a heated battle to win the Pro Bowl while Trump wins the Super Bowl by forfeit.

All of this, the preceding 1,000 words or so in this article, is talking generally about an obvious point. Barring that meteor strike, there’s no realistic outcome to the nomination other than Trump appearing on the November ballot.

In fact, it seems likely that neither the DeSantis nor the Haley campaigns will last even to March 4. DeSantis appears to have stopped all ad buys as of yeterday:

After losing to former President Donald Trump in the Iowa Republican caucuses Monday, coming in a distant second, DeSantis does not have any ads running in New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada, according to ad tracking services.

Not only has his campaign apparently gone silent, but the various super PACs supporting his 2024 bid have also vanished from television in the early nominating states.

Meanwhile, Haley has a new potential problem as the UK Daily Mail has revived old allegations of adultery on her part. Newsweek, an anti-Trump outlet, is trying to put the issue in the best light:

Unproven rumors from more than a decade ago of GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley having multiple affairs have given supporters of former President Donald Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement fuel for a new attack.

. . . The rumors were never proven and no significant new information has emerged about the old accusations, but that hasn't stopped Trump supporters from spreading them again. Their attacks come as Haley has risen in the polls, with many analysts speculating she could defeat Trump in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

. . . The affair allegations gained more traction among Trump's base after the Daily Mail picked up the story on Friday, with Ryan Fournier, the co-founder of Students for Trump, and conservative X account @Proud Elephant referencing the Mail's article on social media.

Whether Haley is rising in the New Hampshire polls, as Newsweek claims, is questionable. According to NBC News,

Three high-quality New Hampshire polls have now been conducted after the Iowa caucuses — and they tell a consistent story about the battle in the state’s GOP presidential primary.

It’s not just that all three of them — two tracking polls via the Boston Globe/NBC-10/Suffolk, as well as another poll from St. Anselm College — have former President Donald Trump leading former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by double digits, or that they all have Trump at 50% or higher.

If the goal of the Democrat lawfare campaign is to give Trump the nomination, why would anti-Trump, pro-Democrat Newsweek try to minimize his chances against Haley in New Hampshire and suggest she might beat him there? The fact is that there's no shortage of Democrats who are worried about Trump's potential performance in November, such as David Axelrod, who likely is speaking on behalf of Barack Obama.

The fact is that the January 6 trial, expected to start the day before the Super Tuesday primaries, looks like it will be overtaken by events, with the Republican nomination decided before that date, even leaving aside the increasing likelihood that it will be delayed past then. The Letitia James and E Jean Carroll trials in New York have had no discernible effect on Trump's primary performance, while if anything, the Fani Willis debacle in Atlanta will vindicate Trump and boost his popularity as well.

Lawfare so far has proven an utter debacle.