Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Is Trump Reading A Trend?

In this morning's Breitbart lead story:

Former President Donald Trump declared that the November election will be “Christian Visibility Day” in opposition to President Joe Biden’s declaration of “Transgender Day of Visibility” on March 31, which coincided with Easter Sunday this year.

“Election Day, November 5th, will be the most important day in the History of our Country. It will also be Christian Visibility Day, the biggest turnout of Christians in the history of our Country!” the former president declared on his Truth Social account.

Axios provides some context:

The presumptive GOP nominee is encouraging supporters to buy the "God Bless the USA Bible," which draws inspiration from country singer Lee Greenwood's patriotic anthem, "God Bless the USA."

"We must make America pray again," Trump said in a video posted to his Truth Social account Tuesday encouraging supporters to make the purchase.

The former president said "religion and Christianity are the biggest things missing from this country."

But isn't this not so far from remarks the liberal Cardinal Gregory made on Face the Nation Sunday evening?

Whereas faith used to be the- the- the voice, the moral voice that political people, whether they adhere to everything, they would turn to find that the moral compass with faith. I think, in some cases, it's the political world that's beginning to set or claiming to set the moral voice. We've switched position. There is a- there is a great need, I believe, to place faith in its proper position, which is not necessarily antagonistic to the political arena but to seize the- the responsibility of being that guiding principle, that moral light for our people to turn to. And that has- that's been turned upside down in so many cases, too many cases.

But then I found a remarkably opaque think piece from William A Galston in yesterday's Wall Street Journal, The Danger of Making a Religion of Politics. Galston is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Wall Street Journal columnist, and a regular talking head in the usual places, making him a conventional neoliberal. And he's worried:

The effort to explain rising internal opposition to liberal democracy has become a cottage industry in the past decade. In an op-ed for the Washington Post last month, journalist Fareed Zakaria argued that since the fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of the Soviet Union, rapid economic and social changes have corroded communal life and empowered minority groups in ways that have “unnerved” longstanding majorities. “Freedom and autonomy often come at the expense of authority and tradition,” Mr. Zakaria wrote. “As the binding forces of religion and custom fade, the individual gains, but communities often lose.” The result, he said: We are freer but lonelier, and we struggle to fill our sense of emptiness.

It gives me a headache just to try to diagram these sentences, much less figure out what they mean. TS Eliot could have written this a century ago, which is part of the problem with TS Eliot. Galston goes on,

New York Times columnist David Brooks agreed, contending last month that dissatisfied Americans are feeling an absence of “meaning, belonging, and recognition.” Like Mr. Zakaria, he suggests that infusing liberal politics with moral meaning is the remedy for the declining power of religion.

If you think about it, the views of Zakaria and Brooks are precisely the sort of thing to which Cardinal Gregory objects, "it's the political world that's beginning to set or claiming to set the moral voice." Galston is also against it, but for much more obscure reasons:

I have two qualms with this argument. First, it minimizes simpler explanations for the declining confidence in liberal democracy. One is that the U.S. has been ill-governed for the past two decades. Consider the record: two costly, mostly failed wars; a financial crisis from which it took years to recover; a pandemic during which Americans experienced more restrictions and more deaths per capita than many other advanced societies; a postpandemic inflationary surge; cultural conflict that has polarized politics. Against this backdrop, we need not invoke religion to explain declining confidence in liberal institutions, which are, like all forms of government, judged mostly by their fruits.

In other words, there's no need to invoke the loss of religion to explain the current mess, it's just that the politicians have screwed things up by themselves. But that just begs another question: why did the politicians screw things up? Aren't we allowed to seek out causes? He then makes something of a leap:

But for most people, a sense of true purpose and belonging won’t come through politics. This is especially true in liberal societies without enforced religious orthodoxies, whose denizens pursue their own conceptions of meaning and worth mostly in families, voluntary associations, religious institutions and work.

What he envisions here is one view of the constitutional principle that there must be no established religion, which earlier he equates with the whole idea of liberal democracy. Let the people work things out, by implication outside the political realm. You have bowling league Tuesday nights, church on Sunday, work all week; these have nothing to do with politics in a liberal democracy. He concludes,

When we ask politics to fill the role vacated by religion, the consequences are dangerous. The natural longing for perfection shifts from heaven to a realm that resists it. Doctrinal commitment to a set of secular ideas is pitted against the diversity of belief inherent in free societies. A religious-like fervor for a particular set of political values undermines the spirit of conciliation that makes peaceful common life possible.

To cure our current ills, better governance is a safer bet than a politics of meaning, even one designed to bolster liberal principles and hopes.

As best I can tell, he's saying we should forget religion, it goes against liberal principles. What, then, do we do with religion? I think the only answer is a secularist one, that religion is an evolutionary vestige based on primeval myths that are little better than dinosaur skeletons in the local museum. We must concentrate on good governance independent of religion, because, apparently, values, at least those based on religion, are misleading and deleterious to social order. But what do we do with common-sense observations from even secularists like Richard Dawkins?

"If I had to choose between Christianity and Islam, I choose Christianity every single time," he said. "I mean, it seems to me to be a fundamentally decent religion in a way that, I think, Islam is not."

Dawkins argued that Islam is less compatible with British values than Christianity, particularly regarding the treatment of women and homosexuals.

"I'm not talking about individual Muslims, who, of course, are quite different," Dawkins said. "But the doctrines of Islam — the Hadith and the Quran — is fundamentally hostile to women, hostile to gays. And I find that I like to live in a culturally Christian country, although I do not believe a single word of the Christian faith."

Isn't this the essence of what Trump is saying?

Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Last-Minute Rescue Attempt Falls Prematurely Flat

There's been a new effort with Obama, the Clintons, and Pelosi to get behind Joe's campaign. Apparently the photo above was taken just this past March 22, a little over a week ago. There was briefly a fundraising ad on YouTube, which disappeared almost immediately, that looks like it was taken in the same session, in which Joe and Barack stand together to make their pitch -- except that it emphasizes all the more that Obama is quite a bit taller than Joe, and he seems robust, while Joe looks frail in contrast. Joe's YouTube ads have almost immediately reverted to Joe talking alone.

(In fact, searching the web for recent photos of Joe with Obama, I noticed that in the past, photographers and editors had been careful to frame and angle photos of the two so that the height difference wouldn't be as clear. Now, it doesn't seem like they care.)

Last night, Hillary told voters to "get over yourselves" on the Tonight show:

Get over yourselves, those are the two choices … And, you know, it’s one of, like, one is old & effective & compassionate, has a heart & really cares about people, & one is old & has been charged with 91 felonies.

I don’t understand why this is a hard choice, really.

This is an all-out press that you might expect in a fall campaign, but here we are in late March and early April.

The Democrats are in a full-blown panic over President Biden's re-election campaign. He's floundering. Former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are coming to the rescue.

At least that is the plan. Whether or not the star power of the two former Democrat presidents will turn the tide for Biden remains to be seen. It is an indication of just how alarmed Democrat officials are, though, if they are calling on Obama and Clinton to boost Biden's campaign this far out from November.

CNN reported that Obama visited Joe Biden at the White House on Friday [March 22]. This was the latest of Obama's visits with Biden over the last few months. The bat signal has been in view by concerned (desperate) Democrats that Sleepy Joe isn't up to the challenges of a presidential campaign. No one, other than Jill Biden, is more worried than Barack Obama.

. . . Obama has made it clear to associates that he thinks the November election will be very close and it's an all-hands-on-deck moment. This meeting was a working visit.

The fundraiser at Radio City Music hall with both Obama and Clinton last Thursday was apparently another part of the new plan, but it blew up in the visual of Trump attending Officer Diller's wake, his spokesman calling the presidential gathering The Three Stooges, and Gov Hochhul, a surrogate for the presidents, being asked to leave the wake the following day. But this was only compounded by the disastrous blunder of announcing the Transgender Day of Visibility to coincide with Easter. Clinton adviser Dick Morris said on YouTube,

For political consultants on the other side -- you pray for things like this, and for him to give this as a gift and unforced error is beyond belief, and then on top of that to do that at the day of the funeral of a hero cop who was shot . . . absolutely was gifts beyond imagination. And it really makes me wonder how the Democratic party does this. How the hell do they expect to win elections with this?

Joe's defenders have fallen back on the "how could anyone be expected to know this?" argument:

On Monday’s broadcast of NewsNation’s “Cuomo,” Democratic strategist James Carville reacted to criticism of the Biden White House for its proclamation of Transgender Day of Visibility falling on Easter by stating, “as if Biden even knew it was” Transgender Day of Visibility and saying that he doesn’t think that “anybody in the White House was aware of” the overlap between Transgender Day of Visibility and Easter.

But this isn't an excuse, even if it's true. Gov DeSantis made the obvious point:

He said that didn't happen. He said he didn't do it. Which raises the question: Either he's not being honest with the public, or he really didn't know what was going on. So my question would be: "Who's running the presidency?"

Is it a bunch of woke, 20-something White House staffers that just put out this drivel whenever they want? So I don't know who's in charge, the fact that he's not owning up to it, either way it's bad. Either he's not being honest or he really didn't have anything to do with it.

But even if Biden has deniability, the White House announcement was actually a step beyond the routine designations of earlier years:

Biden and his White House not only issued the proclamation on Friday, but also issued numerous posts on social media on Easter Sunday to celebrate trans-identifying Americans. Notably, President Biden is the only president to ever recognize “Transgender Day of Visibility” with a presidential proclamation.

I think the problem is that Joe isn't the sort of instinctive politician that Clinton and Obama are -- we're back to Obama's admonition never to underestimate Joe's ability to mess things up, or something like that. My estimate would be that, even if both Clinton and Obama would have the instinct not to issue a presidential proclamation like that ever, much less on Easter Sunday, they would still have staff smart enough to kill the idea before it reached either one.

So here we are in early spring, bringing out the heavy artillery in support of Biden that would normally be called up in the fall, and if anything, it's fallen short and landed on friendly troops. I'm wondering how long the Clintons and Obamas are going to cooperate with this.

Monday, April 1, 2024

It's Hard Not To Think The Calculation Is Changing

Cardinal Wilton Gregory has been widely characterized as a liberal at least since he was named Archbishop of Washington, DC.

The good news is the next archbishop of Washington, D.C., is not Cardinal Cupich, Cardinal Tobin or Bishop McElroy. The bad news is, according to Catholic News Agency, the new archbishop will be Wilton Gregory.

A disciple of Cardinal Joseph Bernardin, Gregory is not just liberal on some things; rather, he is liberal on everything.

On abortion.

On natural law and the traditional family.

On dissident priests.

On the translations of the novus ordo.

Even on dressing for the beach at Mass.

I'm not sure if this impression was ever completely accurate; as far as I can see, he's never been on board with the idea that Joe Biden is a "devout Catholic", for instance. As of 2021,

The spiritual leader of Washington, DC’s archdiocese says President Biden is “not demonstrating Catholic teaching” when it comes to abortion rights.

. . . Biden, who has been vocal about his Catholic faith throughout his political career, flopped Friday on his belief on when life begins. In 2015, the then-vice president said, “I’m prepared to accept that the moment of conception is a human life and being.”

Six years later, the president revealed that he respects but disagrees with those “who believe life begins at the moment of conception.” Biden added that he would never impose his beliefs on others.

While at the National Press Club on Wednesday, Gregory was pressed on the president’s change in beliefs.

“The Catholic Church teaches and has taught that life, human life, begins at conception,” Gregory said, according to the Washington Times. “So the president is not demonstrating Catholic teaching.”

“Our Church has not changed its position on the morality of abortion. And I don’t see how we could, because we believe that every human life is sacred,” he later added.

However, he distanced himself from Abp Gomez's statements following Biden's inauguration:

"Cardinal Gregory told me he felt the statement was quote 'ill-timed,' and reiterated that the Church and the President agree on many other things," [NBC Today co-host Al] Roker said, emphasizing Gregory's message of "dialogue" with the new administration.

. . . In the USCCB statement, conference president Archbishop Jose Gomez of Los Angeles offered prayers for Biden and said the bishops spoke not as partisans but with the aim of guiding consciences.

. . . On the "preeminent" issue of abortion and on other matters such as marriage and gender ideology, Biden has proposed policies "that would advance moral evils," Gomez' statement read.

It looks as though there's been a change, not necessarily slight, in Gregory's stance:

Gregory, the archbishop of Washington, D.C., was asked on CBS' "Face the Nation" whether he believes Biden's long-touted Catholic roots will resonate with American Catholics in the upcoming 2024 election.

"I would say that he's very sincere about his faith. But like a number of Catholics, he picks and chooses dimensions of the faith to highlight while ignoring or even contradicting other parts," Gregory replied. "There is a phrase that we have used in the past, a 'cafeteria Catholic,' you choose that which is attractive, and dismiss that which is challenging."

I've frequently heard the term. and I've always thought it was derogatory. So I did a quick search of the web, and the general opinion is that it's derogatory, with a strong thread of dissent suggesting that while it is, it shouldn't be -- but of course, that's just an acknowledgement that it's derogatory. Gregory went on to explain,

"I would say there are things, especially in terms of life issues, there are things that he chooses to ignore, or he uses the current situation as a political pawn rather than saying, 'Look, my church believes this, I'm a good Catholic, I would like to believe this.' Rather than to twist and turn some dimensions of the faith as a political advantage," Gregory said.

Up to now, Gregory seems to have tempered his differences with Biden by stressing the areas where they could work together, referring as well to dialogue. But it's also worth looking at the context of his appearance on last night's Face the Nation: he was also on the show with TEC Bishop of Washingtgon Mariann Budde, who expressed opposing views on the specific question of whether it's a bad thing to be a cafeteria Christian -- Anglicanism has always been on the side of the cafeteria, after all. Elsewhere in the transcript of the show, Cardinal Gregory took a surprisingly hard line:

I think one of the things that we're experiencing is that faith and politics have always had a strange affiliation. But it's switc hed now. Whereas faith used to be the- the- the voice, the moral voice that political people, whether they adhere to everything, they would turn to find that the moral compass with faith. I think, in some cases, it's the political world that's beginning to set or claiming to set the moral voice. We've switched position. There is a- there is a great need, I believe, to place faith in its proper position, which is not necessarily antagonistic to the political arena but to seize the- the responsibility of being that guiding principle, that moral light for our people to turn to. And that has- that's been turned upside down in so many cases, too many cases.

Which is another way of saying that in the Civil Rights movement, Martin Luther King Jr, a Baptist pastor, was joined by a wide spectrum of other religious leaders, certainly including figures like Cardinals Law and Bernardin, in speaking to the issue from a religious perspective. But almost immediately, feminist and gay rights organizations seized the prestige of the Civil Rights movement, which stemmed in some measure from its religious underpinnings, and hijacked it to promote and normalize issues like abortion and same-sex conduct, which have much less religious sanction.

Cardinal Gregory is clearly uncomfortable with this, and he seems to be sharpening his focus on Biden's willingness, not just to side personally with the secularist position, but to try to hitchhike on his Catholicism for his political benefit. Gregory isn't having this.

Whether Cardinal Gregory would go as far as San Francisco Abp Cordileone, who denied then-House Speaker Pelosi communion in her home diocese in 2022 for her support for abortion, and make the same move with Biden, is an open question. But at least from appearances, it's less unlikely than some would have thought.

Sunday, March 31, 2024

How Did They Forget About Dylan Mulvaney?

On Good Friday, the White House issued this proclamation:

NOW, THEREFORE, I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim March 31, 2024, as Transgender Day of Visibility. I call upon all Americans to join us in lifting up the lives and voices of transgender people throughout our Nation and to work toward eliminating violence and discrimination based on gender identity.

On one hand, OK, this isn't anything new:

Republicans are taking aim at President Joe Biden for proclaiming Easter Sunday as the Transgender Day of Visibility, though the two days only coincided this year by chance.

The Transgender Day of Visibility, which was started in 2009 as a day of awareness to celebrate the successes of transgender and gender-nonconforming people, is held annually on March 31. The date of Easter, meanwhile, changes from year to year.

But several Republicans seized on Biden’s proclamation to attack the president.

But other commentators have asked whether the White House would have made a point of the trans day of visibility if it had coincided with the start of Ramadan, which took place on March 11 of this year -- Likely not. The same might apply to the start of Passover, which often coincides with Easter.

It's hard to avoid thinking this is an in-your-face gesture, at least this year. Michael Lebron, who goes by the handle Lionel, commented on YouTube,

Biden knows his days are numbered. He has never been at a voter approval nadir like this. This is the pits, it can't get any worse. You would think, just until the election is over with, like 220 days roughly until the election, you would think that he and his cronies would say let's just play it cool for a while, let's pretend that we don't hate America, just for the time being. But no, no, no, that's not what he does. What Joe Biden does is he's declared the holiest of Christian holidays, this is critical, Easter, he calls it Transgender Day of Visibility. What the mpph does that even mean?

The problem is that "transgender visibility" to most Americans these days is turning out to be biological men forcing themselves into women's rest and locker rooms, and indeed, not even trying to pass as women, but doing things like shaving when they get there.

Johanna Ray planned a winter birthday party for her six-year-old son during the Feb. 22 open swim time at the Hamme Pool in Fairbanks. What was supposed to be a family friendly environment was quickly shattered when a transgender biological male entered into the women’s locker room as Ray’s daughters and other underage girls were undressing.

. . . According to Ray, a pool supervisor said they would see if they could arrange a better solution.

“I suggested they offer the lobby bathroom to the transgender person,” Ray recalled. “Why should all my children and all the kids invited to my party have to use one tiny lobby bathroom with no shower, and have a biological male walk right into a room of naked changing women and little girls, completely violating their privacy and trust?”

. . . Ray explained to the transgender person that a bunch of little girls were coming into the locker room to change for a swimming birthday party. She then asked if he would be willing to change in a gender-neutral bathroom.

“He said, ‘I’m not bothering you – go to hell lady,’ and flipped me off as he walked out,” Ray recounted.

She said the person attends a local high school with her older daughter and is allowed to use the girls’ bathroom at the school as well.

Episodes like this have become routine. The "rights" of transgender people have morphed into a generalized form of oppression, which normies -- even in cases like this, soccer moms who might have leaned Democrat -- are starting to resent. This has handed Trump an issue, which he immediately seized:

Former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is lighting up Democrat Joe Biden and the White House for the president’s “appalling and insulting” behavior towards Christians on Easter

". . . We call on Joe Biden’s failing campaign and White House to issue an apology to the millions of Catholics and Christians across America who believe tomorrow is for one celebration only — the resurrection of Jesus Christ.”

Traditional media is stressing that the trans day of visibility falling on March 31 is just a coincidence, and Republicans are acting in bad faith to accuse Biden of deliberately desecrating the Christian holiday. The problem is that this is taking place just as the public is starting to calm down from the Dylan Mulvaney fiasco, with Bud Light only slowly and gradually regaining its market. You do not want to identify your brand with trans.

The basic problem is that people don't trust Biden, and they're predisposed to believe he supports pretty much anything they don't like. Conversely, if Trump, or someone on his campaign staff, were inadvertently to issue a positive statement about the trans day of visibility, they'd give him the benefit of the doubt. In demanding an apology from Biden, the Trump campagin knows that's something Biden will never do, but Trump is able to put himself on the side of Middle America against Biden, who supports trans, which means men in women's spaces and Dylan Mulvaney -- and he'll never back down, which makes it a permanent issue for Trump.

This probably wasn't deliberate, just a really dumb White House move, but the problem with the visual is that it's so hard to tell the difference that it may as well be deliberate, and Trump is going to play it as though it is. Well, you can't fix stupid.

Saturday, March 30, 2024

The Bridge, The Governor, And The Three Stooges

I mused briefly yesterday on why the Baltimore Key Bridge collapse seems to have captured media attention well beyond similar episodes like the Sunshine Skyway bridge collapse of 1980, in which 35 were killed, amd the 2007 Minneapolis I-35 bridge collapse, in which 13 were killed. In contraast, only 6 are missing and presumed dead in Baltimore, while a potential story of competence by law enforcement, which was able to close the bridge to traffic within minutes' notice of the runaway container ship, is lost in the shuffle.

Instead, the story from Tuesday is still trending today, and not only that,

Even before most Americans woke up Tuesday morning to news of the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, wild conspiracy theories about what supposedly had “really” happened were running rampant online.

The claims ranged from a cyber-attack or a ship captain impaired by side effects from Covid-19 vaccines being responsible for the crash – to claims that Israel, or even the Obamas had something to do with the bridge’s collapse.

All of these claims are entirely baseless. Officials investigating the crash said early on that there was no indication it was a deliberate act.

Rampant conspiracy theories seem to surface only around the most consequential events, like 9/11 or Kennedy's assassination. Why is this happening around the Key Bridge collapse, whose overall social impact appears to be mild? At worst, highway traffic will need to route itself the long way around the Baltimore Beltway, while other East Coast ports may each need to take up about 10% of the overflow from Baltimore's closure.

In fact, my wife and I have insurance backgounds, and the most interesting aspect of the incident for us is the insurance claims, which could bankrupt whichever marine insurer is involved, as well as putting the shipping company out of business. Almost nobody, as far as I'm aware, has mentioned this, which could well be the single greatest impact of the disaster:

The tragedy could lead to up to $4 billion in insurance claims, Morningstar DBRS said.

It was too soon to put a figure on the total insurance loss, Bruce Carnegie-Brown told Reuters, but he said he would be "very surprised" if the event did not result in a multi-billion dollar loss, adding that "the tragedy has the capacity to become the largest single marine insurance loss ever".

So why is the reaction so out of whack? I think this goes to the visuals.

Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott appeared on CNN on Tuesday, and while being interviewed, CNN showed dramatic video of the bridge collapsing over and over.

During the interview, Scott said, “I’m going to be the first to ask that CNN and everyone else stop showing the video. No one needs to see … a possibility of their family member being severely injured or otherwise, over and over and over again because it’s just traumatizing our community.”

The problem is that the videos aren't "just traumatizing our community", the problem is that they're reflecting the national mood. Something beyond a bridge collapsed here, and indeed, something beyond the insurance industry. The coverage of the bridge pretty much obscured the Biden fundraiser with Clinton and Obama Thursday night, but the problem with the fundraiser video just reinforced the national discomfort:

Never Trumper Bill Kristol lamented the bad optics for Democrats as President Joe Biden chose to go to a multi-million dollar fundraiser in New York City hosted by Hollywood celebrities while former President Donald Trump attended a wake for a young New York City police officer killed on duty.

“An unfortunate day politically for the Democrats,” Kristol posted on X.

. . . A former Obama adviser, David Axelrod, agreed with Kristol, but added that the money would “probably mean more” than the look.

“Not wrong. But in the big scheme of things, the $25 million will probably mean more than the look,” Axelrod responded to Kristol’s post on X.

New York Gov Hochul, in an incredibly tone-deaf gesture, decided to insert herself into those bad optics in the worst possible way, grandstanding into the officer's wake without anticipating the consequences:

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) was not a welcome sight at the wake for fallen NYPD officer Jonathan Diller.

Hochul reportedly left Friday’s reception within 10 minutes after she was greeted by a shout of “Get her out of here.” As she walked back to her car, Hochul was confronted by a man who sources said was speaking to her while gesturing with emotion.

. . . In a statement to the Washington Examiner, a spokesperson for the governor’s office would not confirm or deny the claim that Hochul was asked to leave.

The exact circumstances that led to her sudden departure are unclear, but

She was only there for about 10 minutes before she abruptly left after being confronted, sources told the Post.

One man, dressed in a black suit, appeared to yell at the governor as he was seen speaking animatedly and gesturing boldly as she entered her car on the way out, the Post reported.

Several cops were seen applauding the man after he confronted her, the source told the Post.

In contrast,

A spokesperson for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican who leads the county where Officer Jonathan Diller lived, confirmed he extended the invitation to the former president and spoke with him on Tuesday.

In other words, the constituency of Officer Diller's suburban county welcomed -- indeed, invited -- Trump to the viewing, but representatives of that same community requested the New York governor leave when she imprudently showed up. Biden at least had the sense to stay away, though his antipathy to the actual working class represented in part by police officers is clear in any case -- it's not as if he would have wanted to go even if he were welcome, and it's hard to understand why Hochul wanted to attend at all, either.

In the midst of this visual, we have Trump staffer Steven Cheung coining the phrase "the Three Stooges" to refer to Biden, Obama, and Clinton at the Manhattan fundraiser. And as all this takes place, the nation continues to be fixated on images of the Baltimore bridge collapse.

I'm not sure if I've ever seen anything quite like this constellation of seemingly minor but somehow consequential events.

Friday, March 29, 2024

Trump Still Moving The Needle

A new Fox poll is out, which this analysis sums up:

If the new Fox News poll is accurate, it should be sending off warning bells to Joe Biden because there are multiple elements that indicate big trouble for him.

The first is that former President Donald Trump has extended his lead over Biden in their survey. He's now up by five points in the head-to-head numbers, as well as five points ahead of Biden even when adding in the other party candidates. According to Interactive Polls this is the largest lead ever for Trump in Fox polling.

Nobody seems to have pointed this out, but the answer is in two words: Fani Willis. Trump's slow but steady rise in the polls is continuing, but the big thing that's been driving it since last fall has been the lawfare cases against him, which are continuing to backfire. I've noted here that Alan Dershowitz, one of the people who invented the Chicago Seven strategy for turning trials into street theater, has recognized that this is precisely the strategy Trump is following, and it's working every bit as well as it worked for the Chicago Seven in the 1960s.

This is because, just as Judge Julius Hoffman unintentionally cooperated with the strategy back then, the lawfare judges and prosecutors are helping it now. Even poor Judge McAfee, whose manner is thoughtful and even-handed, has clumsily cooperated with Trump and the rest of the defense by permitting Fani Willis to stay on the case, which has allowed Willis to stay in the public eye with her grandiosity and bizarre self-justification. Had he removed her, he would have done the prosecution a big favor. Instead, the circus continues, all to Trump's benefit.

And Trump is fully aware of how well the Chicago Seven strategy works:

Donald Trump once again went scorched earth against the daughter of the judge overseeing his New York hush-money trial on Thursday, posting a fiery rant to Truth Social that called her out by name.

That woman, Loren Merchan, has become the focal point of Trump’s attacks against her dad, Judge Juan Merchan, in his longshot attempt to have him ousted as the judge presiding over his criminal case in New York.

. . . “Judge Juan Merchan is totally compromised, and should be removed from this TRUMP Non-Case immediately,” he posted Thursday afternoon. “His Daughter, Loren, is a Rabid Trump Hater, who has admitted to having conversations with her father about me, and yet he gagged me.”

. . . “She works for Crooked Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Adam “Shifty” Schiff, and other Radical Leftists who Campaign on ‘Getting Trump,’” he said, adding that her work has created a “TOTAL Conflict.”

The story characterizes this as part of Trump's "longshot attempt" to have Judge Merchan taken off the case. Nothing could be farther from the truth. This is an attempt, which could well succeed, to provoke Merchan into further angry retaliation, which will create headlines the media can't resist covering, while giving Trump more free publicity, which will continue to drive him up in the polls. As was the case in the Chicago Seven trial, rhe best strategy would have been to remove Judge Julius Hoffman, as well as probably just to drop the case. Instead, it made Abbie Hoffman, at best a very troubled figure, into a media hero.

In other words, the lawfare strategy, which is often attributed to Biden himself, is continuing to backfire badly. It focuses attention on Trump, and it unavoidably forces a contrast between Trump, who comes off as a strong figure and even a bit of a bad boy, with Biden, who appears stiff and ineffectual, having to rely on figures like Merrick Garland, Fani Willis, Jack Smith, and Judges Engoron and Merchan, to do his fighting for him -- except that those figures appear to be ineffectual and even comical as well.

Meanwhile,

Donald Trump attended Thursday's wake of a New York City police officer gunned down in the line of duty and called for "law and order" as part of his attempt to show a contrast with President Joe Biden and focus on crime as part of his third White House campaign.

. . . The visit by Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, came as Biden was also in New York for a previously scheduled fundraiser with former Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Trump has accused Biden of lacking toughness, and his campaign sought to contrast his visit with Biden's fundraiser.

Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung, in a post on X, noted Trump's visit and said, "Meanwhile, the Three Stooges — Biden, Obama, and Clinton — will be at a glitzy fundraiser in the city with their elitist, out-of-touch celebrity benefactors."

Trump and his campaign staff are on their game, now coming up with new labels for their opponents, in contrast with lame attempts by Biden to do the same with "broke Don". Earlier in the month, Biden had suggested he'd turn things around starting with the State of the Union. Visuals like the New York police officer's wake and even the collapse of the Baltimore Key Bridge (which would normally have nothing to do with the White House) are in fact beginning a whole new series of setbacks for Biden.

Thursday, March 28, 2024

As Trump's New York Trial Gets Closer, Things Get Juicy

One feature of all the Trump criminal trials so far has been that as the date for each approaches, new and often lurid details surface that throw their credibility into doubt. This certainly happened in Fulton County, and it looks like something similar may occur in New York as well. I think this is an inevitable result of the slapdash nature of all the cases, thrown together for indictments in the middle of 2023 in hopes of securing convictions in one or more of them, first by the 2024 primary season, and then by the November election. So far, this isn't working out as planned.

We probably have some vague recollection of Michael Avenatti, pictured with his onetime client, the porn actress Stormy Daniels, above:

Michael John Avenatti (born February 16, 1971) is an American former attorney and convicted felon, currently incarcerated in federal prison at FCI Terminal Island. He is best known for his legal representation of adult film actress Stormy Daniels in lawsuits against then U.S. President Donald Trump, and his multiple convictions for attempting to extort sports apparel company Nike and defrauding and embezzling settlement money from a series of other clients. Avenatti has appeared extensively on television and in print as a legal and political commentator, and as a representative for prominent clients.

Tony Seruga is an extremely colorful character who describes himself as

a serial entrepreneur and professional marketer. While Tony states publicly that he has lost count of how many companies he has started, those that are responsible for his day to day operations know that number to be somewhere above 240, much more astounding is the fact that over 70% of Tony’s start ups have been successful. Along the way, Tony developed and refined a number of proven marketing solutions into a system that works for every industry.

He also claims elsewhere to have been an intelligence operative and a philanthropist, although most importantly, he claims to have been an acquaintance of Michael Avenatti, which frankly seems about right. He posted yesterday on X: At the bottom of the post, he adds oh-by-the-way,

In any case, Avenatti shared details of his client Stormy Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, case and the fact that her and Michael Cohen were actually having an affair since 2006.

The whole hush money scheme was cooked up by Michael Cohen to extort the Trump Organization before the 2016 election. Avenatti seemed pleased at how deviant Michael Cohen was.

Since Michael Cohen's name has come up, let's revisit how he relates to Trump and the upcoming trial:

Michael Dean Cohen (born August 25, 1966) is an American former lawyer who served as an attorney for former United States president Donald Trump from 2006 to 2018.

. . . Trump employed Cohen until May 2018, a year after the special counsel investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections began. In August 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty to eight counts including campaign-finance violations, tax fraud, and bank fraud. Cohen said he violated campaign-finance laws at Trump's direction "for the principal purpose of influencing" the 2016 presidential election. In November 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty to lying to U.S. congressional committees about efforts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

. . . In late 2016, adult-film actress Stormy Daniels (legal name Stephanie Clifford) was speaking to some reporters and said that she had had a sexual affair with Trump in 2006. In October, Cohen and Daniels' attorney Keith M. Davidson negotiated a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) under which she was to be paid $130,000 hush money. Cohen created a Delaware LLC called Essential Consultants and used it to pay the $130,000. The arrangement was reported by The Wall Street Journal in January 2018.

Cohen told The New York Times in February 2018 that he paid the $130,000 to Daniels from his own pocket; he also said that the payment was not a campaign contribution and he was not reimbursed by either the Trump Organization or the Trump campaign. The Washington Post later noted that, by stating that he used his own money to "facilitate" the payment, Cohen was not ruling out the possibility that Trump, as an individual, reimbursed Cohen for the payment. In April 2018, Trump acknowledged for the first time that Cohen had represented him in the Daniels case, after previously having denied knowledge of the $130,000 payment.

On March 5, The Wall Street Journal cited anonymous sources recounting Cohen as saying he missed two deadlines to pay Daniels because Cohen "couldn't reach Mr. Trump in the hectic final days of the presidential campaign", and that after Trump's election, Cohen had complained that he had not been reimbursed for the payment. Cohen described this report as "fake news".

More recently, according to the UK Daily Mail, a letter emerged from Cohen in which

Michael Cohen claimed he was not reimbursed by Donald Trump or his organization for hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels in a 2018 letter to federal authorities, contradicting his recent grand jury testimony,

The bombshell document, exclusively obtained by DailyMail.com, could throw a wrench in the works of prosecutors pursuing criminal charges against Trump over the payments.

"Bombshell" or not, the claim in the letter seems entirely consistent with public claims Cohen made in 2018. The additional detail purportedly from Avenatti via Seruga suggests that there was some kind of plan behind the whole hush money scheme cooked up by Daniels and Cohen to extort a payment from Trump over something that may in fact never have taken place, and Trump seems to have been able to evade the extortion attempt. Cohen in turn may have been looking for revenge on Trump in giving false testmony about this to the grand jury.

Avenatti, Cohen, and Daniels could presumably be subpoenaed for depositions or testimony in this matter. This in turn suggests to me that we could see a very similar replay of the testimony Terrence Bradley gave in front of Judge McAfee on when he did, or maybe didn't, become aware of the affair between Fani Willis and Nathan Wade. Whatever was or wasn't established in that judicial process nevertheless destroyed the credibility of the whole Fulton County case. We'll have to stay tuned.