The Springfield Geese

One of Trump's most controversial claims in Tuesday night's debate was that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, OH were eating local people's pets:

"They're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats," Trump said during an answer to a question about immigration. "They're eating the pets of the people that live there, and this is what's happening in our country, and it's a shame."

. . . David Muir, the ABC News anchor co-moderating the debate, immediately fact-checked Trump's claims, saying that the city manager in Springfield, Ohio, told the network there had been no credible reports of pets being harmed, injured or abused by people in the city's immigrant community.

PolitiFact chimed in:

But are the social media claims true about the immigrants eating their neighbors’ pets and dining on local waterfowl? City spokesperson Karen Graves, in a statement to PolitiFact, said no.

"In response to recent rumors alleging criminal activity by the immigrant population in our city, we wish to clarify that there have been no credible reports or specific claims of pets being harmed, injured or abused by individuals within the immigrant community," Graves said.

Nor are there reports about ducks and geese being killed and eaten, Graves said.

The mayor of Spriogfield has also denounced reports of Haitians eating cats and ducks as a "rumor":

Local officials and community leaders have vehemently denied these claims, stating that no evidence supports such a disturbing accusation. The Springfield Police Department has conducted thorough investigations and found no reports of any such incidents.

"There is absolutely no truth to these rumors," said Rob Rue, the Mayor of Springfield. "Our city is committed to welcoming and supporting all residents, regardless of their background or origin. We will not tolerate the spread of misinformation that harms our community."

However, this story provides clear documentation from police records of a report made on August 26 of four Haitians, each carrying the body of a goose. But the problem goes beyond pets and geese:

🚨 BREAKING:
SPRINGFIELD, OHIO UPDATE

Local mother and resident of 7+ years says that the 20,000+ Haitians are outpricing and pushing low-income renters like her out of the neighborhood with money from assisted living, food stamps, and other government aid.

She says she’ll… pic.twitter.com/MzFB25cF7S

— Tyler Oliveira (@tyleraloevera) September 10, 2024

Other residents interviewed by Tyler Oliveira say the problem goes back for months or years, but it appears that local officials, including as we see here the mayor and city manager, have been denying that it exists -- at least until Trump made it a front-burner issue:

The governor of Ohio will send law enforcement and millions of dollars in healthcare resources to the city of Springfield as it faces a surge in temporary Haitian migrants that has landed it in the national spotlight.

Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said Tuesday he doesn't oppose the Temporary Protected Status program under which some 15,000 Haitians have arrived in the city of about 59,000 people since 2020, but said the federal government must do more to help impacted communities.

His news conference was held just hours before the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump, where the divide over immigration policy was sure to be an issue.

Why has this been allowed to fester? Suddenly Ohio's Republican attorney general has got religion, too:

On Monday, Republican Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost also drew attention to the crisis when he directed his office to research legal avenues — including filing a lawsuit — to stop the federal government from sending “an unlimited number of migrants to Ohio communities."

. . . “These dramatic surges impact every citizen of the community, every citizen,” he said, noting additional influxes are occurring in Findlay and Lima, Ohio. "Moms who have to wait hours in a waiting room with a sick child, everyone who drives on the streets, and it affects children who go to school in more crowded classrooms.”

On Wednesday, the Ohio State Highway Patrol will be dispatched to help local law enforcement with traffic issues that officials say have cropped up due to an increase in Haitians unfamiliar with U.S. traffic laws using the roads. DeWine said he is also earmarking $2.5 million over two years to provide more primary healthcare through the county health department and private healthcare institutions.

So all of a sudden, the Republican establishment, which had been turning a blind eye to the problems in Springfield and apparently Findlay and Lima, and very likely plenty of other places, is suddenly looking at suing the federal goverment and maybe even enforcing traffic laws. Sounds like J D vance may have been making some good points with those fellas.

But this link raises some worthwhile questions:

The migrant influx began when city officials worked with local business owners to recruit Mexicans on the southern border, Monaghan said. But that trickle turned into a flood of Haitians, he said, adding: “The rich have mobilized [migrants] to destroy the working and middle classes.”

. . . Amid the sudden displacement of Americans, Democrats and national media outlets prefer to divert the nation’s attention to rumors about missing pets in the city.

. . . Since 2021, Biden and his deputies have imported roughly 10 million legal, quasi-legal, and illegal migrants. Those migrants have absorbed nearly all of the extra lower-wage jobs created by President Joe Biden’s deficit spending. His combination of deficit spending, wage-cutting migration, additional low-wage jobs, and investor windfalls are the core of Bidenomics.

So there are people, some in fact Republicans, who are profiting from, or at least enabling, the influx of illegal migrants. Springfield is showing a new and valuable perspective. But there are aspects that don't compoute. The link describes Ohio businesses that want cheap, compliant labor -- which some illegals may certainly be -- but the Haitian community definitely isn't supporting itself with the earnings of the good workers. It's draining welfare and medical resources if it isn't eating pets outright, something the Ohio Republican establishment is only belatedly coming to recognize.

The Ohio employers who want cheap immigrant labor are getting a free ride at the expense of ordinary Ohio citizens. UPDATE:

This is an absolutely insane video.

A Springfield, Ohio homeless advocate tells the city council that landlords are kicking people out of their homes and replacing them with Haitians and that the Biden-Harris government is paying them to do it.

He says he personally knows… pic.twitter.com/edNKl4tpDz

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 12, 2024

I Must Have Watched A Different Debate

ABC News tries to fact-check Donald Trump on Springfield, Ohio.

Kamala Harris' reaction to this exchange might be her most cringe moment yet. pic.twitter.com/mhjaeqw8Bs

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 11, 2024

The consensus take on last night's debate was something like this:

Trump wasn't at his best, but it wasn't all his fault. Two things were all on him, however: his preparation — or lack thereof — and the fact that he walked into the lion's den of bias in the first place.

Kamala Harris didn't provide much real competition for Trump last night. The bar was low for her — all she had to do was show up and not be Joe Biden. Mission accomplished. She spent the evening doing little more than regurgitating DNC talking points from New York Times and WaPo editorials from the last few years. It was remarkably brain-dead, but it was all she needed.

I keep making the point here that subliminal messaging is far more important than whether you can make the middle school debate team. Most presidential debates aren't memorable, but a few, like the October 13, 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debate, are thought to have helped tip that year's election. Another was the October 17, 2000 third debate between Dubya and Al Gore. The New York Times quoted the moderator, Jim Lehrer of PBS:

After the debate I walked out with my family, and one of my daughters said something I’ll never forget. She said, “Oh Dad, isn’t it something, what Gore did?” I stopped and said, “What do you mean?” Because as a rule, I only look at the candidate who is speaking. She said, “All that huffing and puffing and eyerolling and sighing.” I said, “My God, I didn’t know anything about it.” And she said, “Well, Dad, that’s going to be the lead of the debate stories.” And she was right. That night proved beyond any shadow of any doubt that body language is truly important in a presidential debate.

The piece quoted another insider:

It was the third debate when Gore finally invaded Bush’s space. He walked over right next to Bush and hovered as Bush spoke. Bush shot him a quick look — it was perfect.

Conventional ideas about debate prep had nothing to do with it, and the actual effect of Gore's attempts to steal the spotlight took days to sink in -- but sink in they did. Another example is the second 2016 debate on October 9 of that year. Trump is thought to have damaged his chances against Hillary Clinton badly, at least according to The Guardian:

That banging sound you heard were the last nails being hammered into the coffin of the Trump campaign. Or it might have been the thumping of Donald Trump as he stalked the debate stage.

. . . Wounded animals behave in strange ways, and Donald Trump was nothing if not strange at the second presidential debate. He went far beyond barking his usual interruptions and conspiracies[.]

But what seized my attention in that debate at the time was Hillary's strange outfit -- I remember commentary following the debate saying she looked like a penguin, but attempts to bring this up via a web search this morning have been unsuccessful. On the other hand, other commentary at the time suggested she was nevertheless intent on making a bold fashion statement:

Clinton opted for a hint of the unexpected in this navy Lauren suit with white lapels over a white crewneck top. She chose kitten-heeled pumps, sans bows, to complete the look.

Except that it made her look like a penguin, or maybe an old gay queen dressed for the ball. I think in hindsight the message it sent was that she wasn't taking Trump seriously -- he was just a bit player in her big drama, where her Ralph Lauren outfits were newsworthy events. I couldn't shake the impression that something was deeply off -- and I think more than a few others got the same subliminal nudge.

So let's move to what we saw in last night's debate. Clearly there was an expectation that Trump would somehow finish Kamala off in the same way that Joe finished himself off on June 27 -- but Kamala's handlers seem to have succeeded in keeping her away from alcohol while programming quasi-policy set-piece statements into her. Mark Halperin told Megyn Kelly that it was a C-plus performance, which was all she needed, and she won the debate.

If this were the middle school debate team, Halperin might be right. The problem is the subliminal effect. Let's leave aside for a moment the mugging for the camera while Trump was talking. The first thing I noticed was that her hair was suddenly four inches longer than it had been a day or so earlier. She'd added extensions for a full Louis XIV effect, going, like Hillary, for an incongruous glamour look. But by the time of her closing statement, either the botox had given out or the lighting was wrong, because little wattles began to dangle under her chin while she was talking.

She's 60, going for glamour, but with wattles. If you've got wattles, maybe you want to be more of a Margaret Thatcher thnan an ingenue, or maybe have a serious talk with your plastic surgeon.

The next thing wax the nasal weepiness. Every time subjects like women controlling their bodies came up, she'd sound like she was about to break into tears, but there was always this nasal harangue. This is going to get old if we're thinking about having to listen to it for the foreseeable futrure.

But then there's that matter of her making faces, mugging, smirking, silently laughing while Trump talked. Her expression in the tweet at the top of this post is a perfect echo of Lily Tomlin's Ernestine character on the old Laugh In show. But what comes off is that Kamala is trying to upstage Trump, and it looks petty and egotistical. What the people who are grading the debate as though it were the middle school debate team miss is that people are looking at this and deciding whether they feel comfortable with it on the nightly news for the next four years.

That's where Al Gore's huffing, puffing, eyerolling, and sighing did him in. That's where Hillary's penguin suit did her in. People don't want to vote for candidates who annoy them. I don't think we can discount the sublminal effect of the weepy nasal voice, the glamour look with the wattles, or the mugging and smirking on what the electorate thinks about Kamala.

Is Nancy Pelosi Nervous?

At the end of yesterday's post, I speculated idly about the lizard people possibly replacing Nancy Pelosi -- I don't think she gives the ultimate orders any more than Barack Obama, and certainly nobody believes that about either Joe or Kamala. A few hours later, I saw that this isn't just a vain fancy. In an appearance on The View recounted by Ed Morrissey,

Pelosi attempts to claim that the Bidens got her all wrong two months ago. Pelosi didn't want Biden to withdraw at all, she now claims. She only wanted Biden to revamp his campaign after his disastrous debate performance . . .as though his campaign looked like it suffered from middle-stage dementia on June 27.

He cites a tweet by Jacqui Heinrich:

Pelosi on The View denies she wanted Biden to drop out, but says his campaign needed to change.

PELOSI: "My point was we need a better campaign, as I said, a decision to win. I didn't see us on a path to victory. So it wasn't about him not running. It's just if this is the…

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) September 9, 2024

The release of the New York Timwes/Siena poll \yesterday showed the race is in the same position it was just after Joe dropped out at Nancy's behest:

The results are essentially identical to the last time the New York Times/Siena poll asked voters for their preference in the aftermath of President Biden dropping out of the race in late July, with that poll also showing Trump with a 48-47 lead.

In fact, it looks to me as though we're in precisely the same place we were after July 13, when Nancy renewed her effort to get Joe to "do the right thing" and urged his long-term advisers to show him the polls -- when Joe insisted it was a margin-of-error race and Nancy finally got tough, saying something along the line of doing it the hard way or doing it the easy way.

In fact, I've got to surmise that if Nancy had internal polls that showed Joe in a significantly worse position than public polls at that time, any internal polls taken now probably reflect the same relative disadvantage for the Harris campaign now. In other words, the big switcheroo did nobody any good.

As Jacqui Heinrich pointed out in her tweet, though, Harris simply inherited the Biden campaign apparatus, less Anita Dunn and Bob Bauer, who apparently were made the scapegoats for Joe's June 27 debacle. Biden's campaign chair, Jen O'Malley Dillon, an Obama plant, is still the Harris campaign chair in Wilmington. Brian Fallon, who is felt to be Kamala's chief handler, worked in the same position as Kamala's handler with the Biden-Harris campaign.

As I pointed out in this post, most of the key people in the Harris campaign were Biden hires, with a few Obama inserts like David Plouffe. And as I pointed out yesterday, Kamala's debate prep strategy -- sequester the candidate with a studio duplicate, mock debates with a Trump surrogate, and policy cram sessions -- is precisely the one they had for Joe.

So I guess if I were a lizard person, I'd be asking Nancy and Kamala's handlers whether they might be doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result. And Nancy might be nervous -- but what options do the lizard people have? In a different time and place, the organs of state security would have effected a discreet disappearance for Nancy, with her image being subsequently airbrushed from official photos. But let's face it, the time to get Joe to drop out of the race was two years ago, not this past July.

Instead, we got a cockamamie lawfare strategy that utterly backfired and as the campaign has developed, turns out to have been completely irrelevant. Who greenlighted that? If only figuratively, some people are going to have to be airbrushed.

Kamala's Debate Prep Looks Just Like Joe's

We've had a couple of articles on Kamala's debate prep. What strikes me is that they really don't seem to differ from what we learned about Joe's debate prep before June 27. For instance,

Vice President Kamala Harris is holed up for five days in a Pittsburgh hotel, doing highly choreographed debate practice sessions before Tuesday night’s clash. There’s a stage and replica TV lighting and an adviser in full Lee Strasberg method-acting mode, not just playing Donald Trump but inhabiting him, wearing a boxy suit and a long tie.

In addition,

On Saturday, Fox News reporter Bryan Llenas revealed the extreme lengths Harris’s team is going to ahead of the debate.

“We know that Vice President Kamala Harris is in her hotel in Pittsburgh. They’ve got the lights as if it’s in a studio. They’ve got the stage. They’ve even brought in somebody who’s dressed and acting like the former President,” Llenas told GOP strategist Pete Seat.

This debate prep strategy mirrors tbhe accounts we had of Joe's, surrounding his disastrous June 27 performance. According to Reuters,

"It is my belief that he was over-coached, over-practiced. And I believe [senior aide] Anita Dunn... put him in a venue that was conducive for Trump and not for him,” said John Morgan, a Florida-based attorney and major Biden fundraiser.

Morgan said Dunn and her husband, Bob Bauer, the president’s attorney who played Trump in pre-debate rehearsals, should "be fired forever and never let back anywhere near the campaign."

Biden's debate strategy was signed off on by campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon, who helped him win in 2020 and was appointed in January to boost an uneven reelection campaign. Dunn, a longtime Biden aide and former Barack Obama campaign strategist, backed that strategy.

. . . Advisers set up a rigorous debate prep calendar, with Biden sequestered at Camp David for six days.

An inner circle, some close to Biden for decades, were involved: Ron Klain, his first White House chief of staff, Dunn, former White House counsel and long-time adviser Mike Donilon, as well as about a dozen other policy and political experts.

The best anyone can conclude is that having a Trump impersonator and a stage set up to mimic the conditions of the debate didn't work out, and the Anita Dunn-Bob Bauer power couple were in fact purged soon after June 27. According to the Reuters link,

As Biden and his aides settled in at Camp David six days before the debate, aides figured he had a lot to accomplish, more than his opponent. Trump could just complain about the present administration - and Biden would need the facts and some zingers at his fingertips.

They expected Trump would be far more disciplined and prepared than he had been in 2020 and believed that they would need to counter a string of rapid-fire lies.

In lengthy prep sessions, they peppered Biden with details, then followed them up with mock debates.

Various accounts suggest Joe didn't take well to the intense cram sessions, and he used cold symptoms to cancel many of them. It looks as though Kamala has responded to this regimen about as well as Joe did:

"What's the best part of debate prep for you?"

Kamala: "Being at the spice store!"pic.twitter.com/AoM29xdAXX

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 7, 2024

So although Anita Dunn and Bob Bauer were made the scapegoats for Joe's poor debate prep and left the White House afterward, it's hard for me to avoid thinking Kamala'a handlers are following exactly the same strategy. Jen O'Malley Dillon, after all, is still Kamala's campaign chair, even though she was the one who greenlighted the original Biden prep sessions, which included sequestering the candidate, mock debates, a faux studio, and intense cram sessions.

It looks like none of rhese things can fix a bad candidate, but it's also worth pondering what John Morgan, the Biden fundraiser quoted in the Reuters story, remarked: "Anita Dunn. . . put [Biden] in a venue that was conducive for Trump and not for him". That's turned out to be exactly the same venue that Kamala will now have, which her handlers tried and failed to change. Maybe they should have kept Anita Dunn and replaced Jen O'Malley Dillon -- or maybe the problem goes higher. Maybe they needed to replace Nancy Pelosi.

Hints Of Kamala's Debate Strategy

As I've already noted here, I was puzzled that the Harris campaign had chosen to die on the hill of unmuted mics in trying to renegotiate the rules for the September debate, since Trump's record in debates is that he wins them whether or not mics are open (the second Hillary debate in 2016) or muted (the June 27 debate this year). Most commentators thought Kamala's handlers were pinning their hopes on the slim chance that Trump would embarrass himself trying to interrupt Kamala, giving her the opening to scold him with "I'm speaking!"

Big whoop, huh? It turns out, at least based on this story in Politico, that they actually had something else in mind:

Kamala Harris had planned to object, fact-check and directly question Donald Trump while he was speaking during their debate next week. But now, with rules just finalized to mute the candidates when their opponents speaks, campaign officials said Harris advisers are scrambling to rewrite their playbook.

Harris and her team — holed up in Pittsburgh for a multi-day debate camp — wanted unmuted microphones so that the vice president could lean on her prosecutorial background, confronting the former president in the same way she laced into some of Trump’s Supreme Court nominees and Cabinet members during Senate hearings.

Instead, four Harris campaign officials argued that she will be “handcuffed” by the rules, which were negotiated by President Joe Biden’s team earlier this summer.

What this suggests to me is that she wasn't so much intending to defeat Trump with ordinary argument -- after all, even US senators must speak when recognized by the chair and adhere to time limits -- but intended instead to use a prosecutorial strategy we occasionally saw in Trump's New York cases, whereby the prosecutor would continually interrupt the defense with rapid-fire objections -- "Objection, asked and answered!"

"Sustained!"

"Objection! Assumes facts not in evidence!"

"Sustained!"

"Objection! Argumentative!"

"Sustained!"

"Objection! Hearsay!"

"Sustained!"

And so forth. The intent is to keep the opponent from even finishing a sentence. If, as in New York, the prosecutor and the judge are in cahoots, this might work, especially if the jury is on the prosecution's side as well, and as long as the political machine doesn't give a flip about appearances, also as in New York. The problem for Kamala is that she simply isn't in court, she's working under a different set of rules where she can't just stop an argument with a legal objection.

Thus she needed a different set of rules that would allow her to keep breaking into Trump's presentation with shrieks. This would put her at an advantage, since on her own, she tends toward incoherent generalities. Another theory of the open mic strategy in the story is remarkably unobservant about Trump:

David Axelrod, who advised Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, was one of several Democratic operatives who noted that Harris’ complaints about the muted microphones also could serve to “get into Trump’s head.”

“What the [Harris] team is saying is that Trump’s campaign does not trust him to control himself,” Axelrod said. “I don’t think Trump likes to be depicted as someone being handled, so I do think there’s an element of trying to psych-out their side, too.”

But as we saw in the June 27 debate, Trump isn't just a politician, he's a successful entertainer who has a standup comic's sense of timing. He's fully capable of waiting for just the right moment to plant his responses, and attempts to bait him into destructicve outbursts never quite come off. A strategy aimed at trying to do this is a waste of time. Besides that, he's already been in so many debates and hostile interviews that it's difficult to imagine an attack that would throw him off balance and cause a spontaneous destructive outburst.

There's another subtle effect of the existing rules:

Trump says Kamala will not get a box to stand on 🤣 pic.twitter.com/UbK9rE94a9

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 7, 2024

As I posted a week ago,

Joe Biden is 6'0"; Trump is 6'3". As long as they aren't precisely side by side in a shot, this isn't noticeable. But if Kamala is 5'4" -- almost a full foot shorter than Trump -- and is standing behind a lectern identical to Trump's, this is going to be a problem. Even if she wears heels and stands on a box, it's going to be awkward. I'm sure this is why the Harris campaign is said to have tried to get ABC to change the rules to allow a seated debate -- but ABC didn't budge.

This may be a reason beyond the mutred mics that Trump insisted that the rules of the June 27 debate not be changed, although it looks like ABC will allow an audience -- but when the June 27 debate didn't have an audience, this was thought to favor Biden. But now, even if there's no long shot on both candidates that shows Kamala, even with heels, much shorter than Trump, she'll still be looking up at Trump when she addresses him, and he'll be looking down at her. The Kamala-in-the-kiddie-seat effect is still going to be a problem.

So why did ABC decide to continue with rules that clearly disadvantage Harris? Good question. I don't rule out that the lizard people know she's a loser.

Nobody Believes The Real Clear Politics Average

Here's the conundrum leading up to the debate, from David Strom at Hot Air:

Kamala could appear on stage drunk out of her mind, vomit on the moderators, and do a striptease revealing she is a lizard person, and her poll numbers would only drop by 3 points.

Everybody anticipates this, because it's what happened after Joe Biden's disastrous June 27 -- his performance was so outlandishly bad that Nancy Pelosi had him off the Democrat ticket within a month -- but the polls didn't shift a bit in the wake of the debate. In fact, this was the basis of Joe's own argument for why he should stay, the polls hadn't changed, the race was still within the margin of error. Nancy Pelosi didn't believe it, and the rest is history.

I think it's also understood that by "the polls", people mean the Real Clear Politics average, but nobody will quite come out and say this. And as of this morning, it has Harris leading the notional popular vote by 1.8, the top battlegrounds by 0.2, and the Electoral College 273 to 265. And nobody believes it, not even RCP. Yesterday it ran a piece by Byron York, a doyen of conventional wisdom, Key state polls: Another mess in the making?

The purpose of a polling average is to avoid some of the errors of individual polls by grouping a bunch of them together. So instead of looking at one or two particularly accurate or terrible polls, look at how the group performed. But some averages are better than others, and all can be wrong if the underlying polls they include are wrong.

. . . In [2020], according to the Brookings calculation, the combined RealClearPolitics average missed a state’s final result by an average of 1.1 points, while the combined FiveThirtyEight average missed the final result by 2.1 points.

. . . Now look at those numbers and apply them to today’s Harris-Trump race in the seven states. Almost all of the poll averages are closer than the average error even in the more accurate RealClearPolitics average and certainly in the less accurate FiveThirtyEight average. There’s just no safe way to say who is leading right now, much less who will win in November.

CNN's data analyst concluded the same thing last night, again without directly mentioning RCP:

CNN’s enthusiastic Senior Data Reporter Harry Enten said Friday that the presidential contest is historically tight and that the slightest shift in momentum could alter the outcome. Moreover, he added, if Donald Trump outperforms current polling by a mere point—which is certainly possible, if not likely, given recent presidential elections—he’ll be strolling into the Oval Office in January 2025.

Yesterday, Nate Silver posted an analysis whose subtext is that "the polls" aren't reflecting the real state of the race:

[T]he Electoral College is starting to look like a challenge for Kamala Harris. This was a problem for Democrats in 2016, of course, and also in 2020 — when Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points, but the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, went for Biden by only 0.6 points.

But wait -- doesn't RCP say this morning that Harris has the Electoral Col;ege by 273-265? Apparently Nate Silver doesn't believe this. He goes on farther down,

The problem for Harris is that Donald Trump has been gaining on her in our polling averages, too — at least in the most important Electoral College states. If, say, Harris had gained 1 point, when the convention bounce adjustment was expecting her to gain 2 points, that would look like more of a rounding error in the model. Instead, though, she’s actually losing ground since the start of the convention in swing state polls.

. . . Harris is ahead by 3.0 points nationally, a tick better than the 2.3-point lead she had coming into the convention. Although I’d note that this is down a bit, too. Her lead peaked at 4.3 points on August 23 in our last model run before Robert F. Kennedy dropped out and we removed him from our model. Still, her national polls are fine; it’s the state polls that are the big issue.

In fact, relative to the start of the DNC, Harris has lost ground in 6 of these 7 states.

. . . This remains an extremely winnable election for Harris, especially with the debate looming next week. But there’s now a 20 percent chance that she wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.

Silver's latest projection, according to Newsweek:

gives Trump a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris' 39.7 percent, with the former president taking 277 electoral votes to the vice president's 260.

The latest prediction gives Trump his highest chance of winning since July 30.

The model also shows that the Republicans have made a net gain of between 0.1 and 2 points in every swing state other than Georgia and Wisconsin in the past week. Meanwhile, Trump leads in every battleground state other than Michigan and Wisconsin, where the candidates are tied.

I've been highly skeptical of Real Clear Politics, both its poll aggregates and individual commentators like Sean Trende, all along. It's especially puzzling that "the polls" have consistently shown so little movement this year in the face of so many unprecedented developments.

Again, Where Are The Harris Surrogates?

Joe Biden, back from vacation, was out and about yesterday, but it had nothing to do with Kamala, whom he at least nominally supports. Via the New York Post:

President Joe Biden visited a small town in western Wisconsin Thursday to talk up his infrastructure and energy spending in the swing state at a local electrical supply company.

The visit to the Dairy State, his first since stepping out of the presidential race, was on official presidential business and unconnected to the Harris-Walz campaign — but that didn’t stop Biden from mentioning his “predecessor” Donald Trump several times during his twenty-five-minute speech. according to CNN, this is fine:

Harris’ political momentum and her chances in November hinge partly on her success in painting herself as a fresh option for voters and dispelling any notion she’s pitching for the second term of the unpopular president, Joe Biden.

But Kamala was in New Hampshire Wednesday, and none of the usual suspects like Bernie Sanders was campaigning with her, even though Sanders had been a Joe Biden surrogate there just a year ago:

Joe Biden’s effort to strip New Hampshire of its first-in-the-nation primary could keep the sitting president from campaigning in the state in the run-up to the 2024 primaries.

But his allies can.

Onetime rival-turned-cheerleader Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont crossed state lines Saturday to deliver an economic policy speech — with plenty of praise for the Biden administration — at presidential pit-stop Saint Anselm College. California Rep. Ro Khanna headlined a major state Democratic Party fundraiser in May. And Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is keynoting New Hampshire Democrats’ annual convention next month.

So where's Ro Khanna now?

Progressive Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) warned Vice President Kamala Harris Wednesday against pursuing a tax on unrealized capital gains despite Harris signaling support for President Biden’s fiscal year 2025 budget proposal that would do just that.

“Let’s say you’re an entrepreneur, you create a company, it gets to $100 million or $200 million on paper. Now if you’re taxing that, you’re probably going to force that person to sell it,” Khanna, whose Silicon Valley-based district is the wealthiest in the US, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“Do you really want the entrepreneurs to be forced to sell their companies to larger institutions and to decline in value? I don’t think that’s what you want for a startup ecosystem,” added Khanna, who did not mention his fellow Californian by name.

What about Josh Shapiro? In fhe wake of what appears to have benn a polite thanks-but-no-thanks to Kamala after his interview for running mate, he was full of brave words about how he was going to campaign for her nonetheless:

President Joe Biden says he and Gov. Josh Shapiro will travel around Pennsylvania this fall on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

Mr. Biden, who was born in Scranton, told CBS’ “Sunday Morning” in an interview that the two men would campaign for Ms. Harris in the nation’s most populous battleground state. Pennsylvania is all but a must-win state for the Democratic ticket this fall as most paths to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory involve winning the Keystone State.

Except now Joe says he won't be doing this, the Secret Service won't let him. The story goes on,

"I was talking to Governor Shapiro, who's a friend,” Mr. Biden said on CBS. “We have got to win Pennsylvania, my original home state. He and I are putting together a campaign tour in Pennsylvania. I'm going to be campaigning in other states as well. And I'm going to do whatever Kamala thinks I can do to help most."

Mr. Biden did not offer any further details. The Democrats hold their national convention in Chicago beginning Monday.

So far, nothing more has materialized from either Joe or Josh. But again, it may not be just the Secret Service who won't let Joe campaign for Kamala:

When Kamala Harris took to the stage during a Democratic primary debate before the 2020 election and implied that Joe Biden was racist, his wife, Jill's, response was crystal clear.

'Go f**k yourself,' the then-future first lady vented, as she allegedly admitted during a conference call with supporters.

And the relationship between the two women – that began badly enough during that contentious battle for the presidential nomination – has only gone downhill from there.

. . . According to one former Democrat operative in Jill's circle, the women's long-seated animosity is 'one hundred per cent' part of Jill's resistance to having her 81-year-old husband step aside.

Because the truth, according to a source who knows the First Couple well, is that Jill's is now the only voice to which the 46th president listens.

And as far as Jill, 73, is concerned, the only thing worse than her husband stepping down would be Kamala stepping up to replace him.

I get the feeling that if Dr Jill has anything to do with it, that campaign tour Joe was going to take with Shapiro in Pennsylvania isn't going to happen.

As for Shapiro, I'm just not sure how much enthusiasm there actually is among any Democrat insiders for either Kamala or her prospects. They're looking to 2028 already and don't want to be associated with a loser.