What's Going On In Canada Lately?

I'ved been following news in Canada more closely since the trade war started, and a side story has popped up that seems to question the larger Mark Carney blame-Trump paradigm. British Columbia Premier David Eby (pronounced E-B) called an early provincial "snap" election on Septemer 22, scheduled for October 24:

Premier David Eby is making U.S. President Donald Trump and the threat posed by his trade policies a central argument for why British Columbia needs an early election, but experts argue that may be a tough sell to voters.

Eby launched the provincial campaign Tuesday, with an appeal for a fresh mandate to protect B.C. from the economic fallout of Trump’s latest tariffs. Speaking in front of the Peace Arch border crossing, Eby portrayed the coming election as a pivotal moment.

“Families feel these tariffs reaching into their grocery bill. They see it at the pump,” Eby said.

But the NDP already holds a majority in the legislature and Eby called the election with two years remaining in his government’s mandate.

That is creating an awkward political question for the premier at the outset of the campaign, said University of British Columbia political scientist Kathryn Harrison.

“The central issue in this campaign is shaping to be whether we should be having an election at all,” Harrison said.

Under the Canadian parliamentary system,

the federal government and most provinces and territories have enacted legislation setting election dates, usually every four years, one year sooner than the constitutionally set five year maximum life of a parliament. However, the governor general, lieutenant governors, and commissioners still have the legal power to call a general election on the advice of the relevant first minister at any point before the fixed date.

Elections held sooner than the four-year interval are called "snap" elections and are typically called if the party in power thinks it's so popular at that point in time that it can extend its mandate by another four years.

It's hard not to surmise that Eby thought Carney's "elbows out" strategy would be a winner, and he proceeded to make Donald Trump the issue in the provincial election as Carney had successfully done nationally. But it wasn't going to be that easy:

Recent American trade measures have increased economic uncertainty, particularly for industries such as forestry, aluminum and manufacturing, and a government confronting potentially painful decisions can reasonably argue that a renewed mandate would strengthen its hand.

But that still leaves one question unanswered:

Why now?

Trump did not suddenly appear on Sept. 22. The ­Canada-U.S. ­confrontation did not begin this week. Eby’s ­government had not lost a ­confidence vote. It still ­possessed a legislative ­majority and a mandate obtained in ­October 2024.

An Angus Reid Institute survey released in early May found the still-leaderless B.C. Conservatives leading the NDP by 10 percentage points. Eby’s approval stood at 33 per cent.

By September, the picture had changed markedly.

Eby’s approval had recovered to 41 per cent, a ­10-percentage-point increase from its low of 31 per cent in June. The NDP’s 41 per cent was now four percentage points ahead of the Conservatives’ 37 per cent in voting intention.

. . . The Conservatives had spent months fractured by departures and internal conflict. Then, on Sept. 20, Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned as leader after only a few months in the position. Lorne Doerkson became interim leader.

Two days later, Eby called an election.

. . . Why Oct. 24? Why must an election occur only seven days after municipal voting, rather than later — or not early at all?

The timing imposes a democratic cost of its own.

Local candidates must compete with a provincial campaign for public attention, volunteers, political donations and media coverage. Municipal leaders had urged the province not to overlap the two campaigns.

If an immediate provincial election were unavoidable, that disruption might be justified.

Eby has not yet demonstrated why it was unavoidable.

That is also why Trump should not become an all-purpose answer.

An international crisis does not suspend a provincial government’s obligation to account for its own decisions. British Columbians can oppose American economic pressure while simultaneously scrutinizing their government in Victoria.

Conservative columnist Brian Lilley sums things up:

It’s been well established that Eby didn’t need to call the election when he did. The man still had two years left on his mandate, three if he wanted to ignore the fixed election date and just go by the Constitution, which requires an election within five years of the last one.

Instead, Eby called an early vote.

He was the one in charge. He was the only one who knew for sure that this was coming, and still he had no plan.

When the campaign started, he tried claiming he needed to call the vote to protect British Columbians from Donald Trump. Voters saw past that and realized it was all about him taking advantage of his opposition being in disarray.

But since Monday, he's had a more specific problem:

B.C. NDP Leader David Eby admits his family uses $10-a-day daycare despite not needing the subsidy, while most B.C. families lack access and his government freezes new providers for three years.

Eby made the admission when questioned by a Global News reporter during an election campaign event in Delta on Thanksgiving Monday, October 12.

Just now, David Eby confirms that he has his kids in $10/day taxpayer-subsidized daycare. Approx. only 10% of BC daycare spots offer $10/day daycare. Most families who want in can't get a spot. As Premier, Eby earns $227k/year. Eby's wife is a doctor. Their household income is likely well over half a million dollars per year. We don't resent British Columbians who are successful (we want more people to succeed). But where there are wait lists, surely a wealthy family like Eby's shouldn't be taking advantage of $10/day daycare. Think about a working single mother? David Eby deserves the spot more than her? — Cole Hogan (@colewhogan) October 12, 2026

The YouTube video embedded at the top of this post shows the awkward news conference where Eby says "you don't have to shout at me" to reporters but goes around in circles when they ask him the precise amount of the donation his family made to the day care center beyond the $10 fee.

I think the takeaway is that Canadians are skeptical when their leaders think holding Trump up as bogeyman can serve as a distraction from issues closer to home. Blaming Trump in Canada, after all, is neither here nor there; Trump will never be on a Canadian ballot, but leaders like Eby and Carney definitely are.